Apple's about to launch a new virtual reality headset in just over 2 months, that'll directly compete with Facebook.[0] Facebook's product, unlike pre-iPhone smartphones, is very decent, and Apple seems to target a high price, so the competition will likely be fierce.
[0]: https://www.macrumors.com/2022/09/04/apple-reality-pro-to-be...
So it isn't about presence (after all, we have and have had VR/AR/XR equipment for quite some time now), but rather about relative ubiquity and obsolescence of what came before (in this case, replacing smart phones).
I might have a blind spot here (or lack imagination), but I think some of the reasons why I don't see these glasses making mobile phones obsolete in a 10 year time frame as a confluence of:
- people in the US by and large prefer not to wear things on their faces (is it seen as weak, esthetically unpleasing, sign of old age?)
- mobile phones (and smart watches, etc.) provide a good balance between mobility and utility
- if VR/AR/XR moves to contact lenses, the first point goes away but you will still need input mechanisms etc. and I doubt that contact lens formats will be able to supplant photographing/video and music playback which has become such a big use case for mobile phones.
Arguing against myself (somewhat): I think for VR/AR/XR to be truly successful, you need to feed the experience directly into the brain because that gives you high fidelity, high mobility, and removes the physical barriers that a contraption on your head brings. But that is even further out than 20 years, assuming humans don't retaliate against the idea of interpersonal communications that is so heavily mediated (read: manipulated) by a company (this happens in social media already).
- have enough compute to render the virtual artifacts
- are self-powered (maybe from electrical impulses from your body?)_
- have some way to get input
- can power your headphones
- have storage (or networking capability)
WITHOUT you having to carry another device on you (likely a smart watch or smart ring or smart phone).
Anyway, I think we're getting bogged down in boring device debate. The more interesting thing (which you allude to somewhat) is how weird / different the future virtual world will be. My money is on it being more Borg-like and less Matrix-like.
You'd do much better comparing them to smart watches and second screens. That's where they can actually work.
You ask good questions! But you make the same mistake as you accuse the tech market theorists of: You seem to think you know what is (or isn't) going to happen, and what dimensions an unreleased product should be measured on.
Apple like Nintendo doesn't primarily market their products based on specs, or on expected use cases. Novel interfaces and uses are far more important to creating demand for a new product than meeting the spec and feature expectations of the market (or market watchers) before the product is announced.
[0] https://www.engadget.com/2006-11-21-palms-ed-colligan-laughs...