Post-Covid, supply chains will be moved back to North America as Governments and companies adapt to the changing geopolitical climate that the demographic collapse will create. I think some of the industrial plant will locate in the US, but a lot of it will locate in Mexico, which has a location advantage, far better demographics than China, and cheap labor compared to both the US and China (Chinese average wages are actually higher than Mexican average wages).

I think TSMC knows that tech is at the top of a pyramid that relies on industrialization and military might to secure it. IMHO we are going into a very unsecure future where we will see an accelerated decline in all the factors that contributed to globalization. In particular, I worry a lot about food security and supply when global markets in fertilizer are disrupted, energy security when global markets in fossil fuels are disrupted, and manufacturing of all goods when commodity markets are disrupted. As much as I want a clean energy and EV revolution in my estimation, it cannot happen without Russian raw materials.

Furthermore, unless there are amazing leaps or breakthroughs in energy generation, energy storage, and food production without fertilizer, the rest of the world—but not the US—will be in for an uncomfortable few decades.

TSMC executives will of course try to influence US politicians, but I think US politicians know that US voters are fatigued with foreign military excursions. US active-duty numbers are already historically low, and I suspect this has to do with difficulty with recruitment. I think it is fair to ask, "Am I defending my country by fighting China in Taiwan?"