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Comment by aierou | Hacker News Reader

> everybody jumping from the bridge should be a strong indicator of what to do.

Not jump from the bridge?

Funny to see you (even temporarily) modded down. When we were kids, the constant refrain was "if all you friends jumped off a cliff [bridge], would you". Now if you don't jump off too you're usually a "denier" or conspiracy theorist

No, that's still the refrain. You shouldn't do things because your dumb friends do them. The context here is completely different: if you were in a public space and everybody in front of your suddenly turned around and starting running your way, clearly afraid, you probably would too.

I probably would. Splitting hairs though, if I was watching a stock plummet and had no idea what was driving it, I think that would be analogous to your running situation and I'd try and dump it asap. If I saw a stock declining in reaction to news that I didn't think was so bad, I might hold or buy more, and if I was really certain, I might double down even as I was ridiculed for my choice - a la Steven Bury (sp?) in The Big Short

That's perfectly sound reasoning! But it's not the reasoning the OP offered: in their case it was sufficient to be bullish because everyone else is bearish, without regard for any actual interpretation of the news.

Ok, agreed!

Michael Burry?

My answer was always the same: "Yes, I have smart friends so if they're jumping off the bridge there's probably a train coming".

Oddly enough the adults in my life never seemed to appreciate the logic.

Either way: the point is that everybody jumping from the bridge is a very strong predictor of something bad (which you'll want to avoid too). Everybody not jumping from the bridge is just business as usual.

On the stock market, yes.

What again, makes me unease just like the OP. It can't be that obvious that the Metaverse is stupid, can it? People believe in much worse things. Why do we have a consensus?

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