Then you will have a battle for control of centralization centered on verifiable identity, kyc and centered ultimately around financial system control, which is the center use case of centralized identity platforms.
All incentives during this phase are centralization, consolidation and scale. Decentralization efforts will be carefully controlled and excluded by very powerful interests. Financial incentives will prevent meaningful adoption.
The carrot will initially be digital money centered on banking directly in the Federal Reserve. Those licenses have been issues for several years and the direction is clear.
There is a lot of carrot left to fuel the consolidation phase, and as economic conditions change and global conditions degrade people will embrace centralized solutions in the short term.
Then you will have an interruption to the central control systems which will lead to decentralized systems.
It will take much longer than people realize for this cycle to play out. We’re still in the consolidation phase. I’m a huge believer in decentralized systems, but like self-driving cars, it’s less of a technology problem and more of an autocratic and powerful interest story.