Not entirely true, but I think most people can (if they're being honest) get 70% or more correct when guessing who will be laid off.
The only wildcard usually is when entire teams are let go, and sometimes those are predictable, sometimes surprising.
What happens when it's the managers themselves who are useless, overpaid, and can't evaluate the team for actual efficacy?
Honestly its funny reading threads like this with people beating their chest about useless coworkers. Instead of thinking of useless coworkers and colleagues, think about what percent of the entire industry that's working on things with no hard output, no interest in profitability, banking on free money that's drying up...
If you're working somewhere with so many incompetent colleagues you think 13% layoffs is not trimming anyone useful, odds are your entire unit is in trouble.
I feel there's a lot of this in crypto, where you have absolutely amazing developers doing amazing code for no point.
Unfortunately the useless and overpaid managers are often the best at brown nosing.
My problem is that I have an almost crippling sense of impostor syndrome and I undervalue my contributions constantly. I don't feel entirely useless, but I do feel like an under-performer - despite probably being an average developer in my cohort.