The Cycle starts with nobody giving Bitcoin a second thought. It's deader than a doornail. Yesterday's news. That is, if anybody even remembers it. Winter.
Spring comes in the form of inexplicably rising exchange rate. Few are paying attention because... Bitcoin is dead. There have been rallies in the past, all failed. Too many failed rallies to even count. So many hopes dashed. So many families broken. So many lives warped beyond recognition.
Summer arrives with an out-of-the blue shot at making a new all time high against the dollar. Will it or won't it? The excitement drives the materialization of a new generation of promoters. Those who have "done the math" and now believe in Bitcoin. People who will tell you to mortgage your house, sell your car, and borrow against your retirement because it's "going up forever."
The popular press starts to smell the sweet scent of clicks and gets busy.
In late summer, problems with "custodians" begin. First with a trickle of instability at an obvious scam. Maybe an exchange. Maybe a yield farm. Maybe an admitted Ponzi.
Before long two, three, four of these custodians are tits up in a pool of blood. "Victims" can't believe their misfortune! They were lied to!
Influencer after influencer comes out of the woodwork to assure followers that capitulation has happened. The exchange rate has stabilized around a nice round number $10. $1000. $10000. $20000. Further declines are not in the cards. Fortune favors the bold!
This goes on for some time, each episode tearing the exchange rate to a lower level. It's Fall.
Eventually, the influencers move on to other audiences. Nobody ever admits what a complete fool they have been. They just... disappear.
Winter comes and the only ones left are the ones who warned the Johnny-come-latelies that this is blood sport, that they are ill-suited for the risks their taking on, and for the love of God, get your damned money off of exchanges.