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Comment by MichaelCollins | Hacker News Reader

I think there is a non-zero chance the culprit has already been identified privately, but won't be identified publicly (at least for many years) for political reasons. There is little to no utility in publicly naming and shaming the culprit if the culprit is your ally or partner; doing so won't bring the pipe back, and would weaken public support for the alliance. Besides a principled commitment to truth for the sake of truth, there would be no rational reason to publicly blame your ally even if you're certain your ally did it.

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yeah it’s probably the US that benefits most from it and the CIA certainly isn’t above this kind of thing, but a Western govt coming out and accusing the US of this would be a very poor choice

The gas was already off, so what would’ve the US exactly achieved with it, accounting for the non-trivial risk of getting caught?

Keeping the gas off.

as far as I know, the gas was not off; massive quantities of gas were released. I recall reading about bubbles 1km in diameter

From what I understand, the pipe was full of mostly stationary gas - it wasn’t flowing at an economically significant rate. That is effectively “off”

Pressurized with methane, now released to the atmosphere. It was actually one of the greatest ecological crimes of the century.

It depends.

See https://gcaptain.com/greenpeace-finds-north-sea-gas-leak-cau...

I'm curious, why do you think the US benefits the most from this? I would think Ukraine.

Prevent negotiations between Russia and Germany particularly. Then sell exorbitantly priced US LNG to a captive Europe. All of which is basically happening now.

If we are speculating without any basis then why not Turkey or Qatar?

Please, stop speculating without any basis. You can make a case for basically anyone who trades gas or had any issues with Russia.

escalation of the crises in Europe, which historically - see: WW2 - has massively benefited the US. more incentive to import American gas. damage Russia; the US objected to Nord Stream in the first place. also can be used as justification to increase support for what is essentially a proxy war in Ukraine

the EU/US economic stratosphere is not necessarily a zero-sum game, but in general if Europe’s economy separately takes a hit, the US gets stronger

Almost all nearby players had motives.

Russia benefits if they can spin it as US action, as the damage to US alliance and trust relationships are huge and definitely strategic goals and gains for them. For a while in the beginning, when it wasn't clear that a functioning (but unused) pipeline remained, Russia was off the suspect list. But it turned out the sabotage missed a pipe and that fact keeps Russia high on the suspect list.

As for US, Germany had already given in to the US pressure and nixed the pipeline and made the gas deals. Why would US go and blow it up? It is possible, but makes little sense.

Whoever did this did so knowing that US will ultimately be blamed. Biden kinda set US up for that with veiled threats regarding NS before the Russian invasion. It's either Russia or UK/Ukraine, is my guess.

I'd expand:

Most Baltic basin states, except Germany sort of, benefit by reduced reliance of Europe on Russian gas. Russia is constantly making threats to all of it's neighbours in that region but keeps discord in Europe via the gas blackmail. Similar story for Ukraine.

Western Europe - it's also not inconceivable. For example France is a net exporter of energy to Germany, and probably also doesn't like the Russian gas blackmail (while being less susceptible to it herself).

So literally anyone has some kind of incentive. Except perhaps Germany. You could still argue that Germany benefits in the long run as that reliance is bad for them, as it turns out, but it's harder to see them going cold turkey on themselves.

Let's not forget about Turkey and Qatar! China is also reexporting Russian gas to Europe.

My bet is on India tough! /sarcasm

Please, stop speculating without any basis. You can make a case for basically anyone who trades gas or had any issues with Russia.

> Please, stop speculating without any basis. You can make a case for basically anyone who trades gas or had any issues with Russia.

...is my point. I'm not speculating, merely saying basically anyone could benefit, so that alone tells you nothing.

Because the US LNG industry stands to benefit. https://peoplesworld.org/article/pipeline-ploy-how-u-s-natur...

Not to mention the US grand strategy of preventing Russian integration with Europe.

If we are speculating without any basis then why not Turkey?

They are now signing deals with Russia about transporting gas to Europe.

Obviously it was Turkey!

No, no, sorry - it was Qatar! They are signing gas deals with Germany now. They stand to profit from it.

Please, stop speculating without any basis. You can make a case for basically anyone who trades gas or had any issues with Russia.

ukraine itself (or perhaps a close intelligence ally like lithuania), with its constant pressuring of the west to escalate the conflict (including calls for direct strikes on russia), seems like the most likely candidate. there were backchannel efforts between germany and russia to open negotiations prior to the sabotage -- removing NS gas from the equation entirely for germany takes some of the wind out of those sails. besides this we have seen a great deal of ukrainian sabotage of other russian assets and infrastructure in recent months.

Ukraine had the strongest motive, but the least technical ability (to do this specifically) of all the suspects, including Russia.

I think Ukraine isn't as backwards as people assume. And also has legal justification since they are at war with Russia. A crass motive is blowing up a pipeline that wasn't being used forces Russia to devote military resources to protect their oil and gas infrastructure elsewhere.

Western support of Ukraine is supposedly conditioned to defense of their own territory, not attacking Russian territory. This would be outside of that condition, so if they did it, it's best to keep it under.

It's more telling if they don't say, that would mean a Russian or Russian-allied operation is unlikely, because there is no political cost for shaming them even more.

NS was not on russian territory, it was sabotaged in international waters just a few km outside of danish territory

Still outside of Ukrainian territory, the condition for NATO support. And it only transports gas from Russia to Germany, with the winter approaching. Even more telling, the US statement in reaction to this was "a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy".

I think western weapons come with those conditions for now. But Ukraine is free to attack targets inside/outside of Russia with their own stuff.

hmm, maybe someone should tell nato about the assassination attempt on alexander dugin inside russia, the suicide bomb attack on russian infrastructure, the helicopter raids into russian territory, etc

i don't think this attack is really as sophisticated as you seem to; the pipeline was about 80-100m underwater -- the ukrainians have (or had) oil platforms in the black sea which would require divers capable of operating at such depths. getting away with it is definitely impressive though.

Possible, though that would require sending Ukrainian ships and agents a very very far way away. I don't think a clandestine Ukrainian operation on the other side of Europe is very likely in the middle of a war on their own territory.

spiegel posted this a few months ago, claiming that the CIA warned the germans that the russians had intelligence that the ukrainians were planning to sabotage NS:

https://archive.ph/v7FL4

>The Germans were warned in summer by the CIA about a possible attack scenario on the Nord Stream pipelines. U.S. intelligence claimed to have intercepted Russian communications in which concerns were expressed about possible Ukrainian attacks on Western infrastructure. The Ukrainians allegedly tried to rent a boat in Sweden for this purpose. The CIA did not consider the scenario of a Ukrainian attack to be very credible, but the mere fact that the possibility of an attack on Western infrastructure was mentioned by the Russian side prompted the Americans to warn the Germans about the scenario.

If that's the case, why would Russia accuse the UK?

UK was the most active one in supplying and teaching Ukraine to use sea drones for sabotage. Recent attack on Sevastopol and other Russian ports were done by these drones. UK is also known to operate submersible sabotage drones. So it’s basically the moat probable scenario, that UK provided ships, drones and explosives, and some Ukrainian pressed the button.

Sounds like extremely reliable Chinese whispers.

He said that she said that he heard that she said that he was planning to do it.

Obviously it was him!

one of the leading german publications published a claim about german intelligence and and a diplomatic exchange. you can find it compelling or not, but it is not some kind of dubious rumor

It's dubious rumour by German intelligence if the publication is correct. The claimed original source of the intel - Russian intelligence - is already extremely unreliable and adversarial. And then we add Chinese whispers game on top.

It's silly to give any credibility to this type of rumour. We should all wait for hard evidence and if there are none or if it can't be made public, then for courts verdicts.

It would be an excellent choice. The CIA is out of control. And this stuff will only get worse the longer there are no consequences for rogue actors.

for purely economic self-interest, it would be a terrible choice. perhaps if the EU got together and came out with a statement, it would be viable. but pissing off the Americans is on no lone Western state's bucket list

If we are speculating without any basis then why not Turkey, Qatar, China or Azerbaijan? Maybe Iran?

They are all profiting from either selling their own gas or reselling Russian gas.

After deep reflection my bet is on Venezuela. They are in the worst shape so they will benefit the most. /sarcasm

Please, stop speculating without any basis. You can make a case for basically anyone who trades gas or had any issues with Russia.

cut the snarky tone. if you disagree, you disagree. say that, don’t be unpleasant

How many of these nations

- Had naval ships in the region at the time of the sabotage, conducting tests of remote controlled underwater exploding drones?

- were previously caught with such a drone (seafox) sitting underneath the same pipeline that was blown up, and in the same location, in 2015? https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/explosive-laden-drone-... https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/gazprom-just-released-th...

- have a history of blowing up pipelines, including previously blowing up a Russian pipeline?

- had a chief executive declare that said they "have the means" to put an end to the pipeline, even though it was not in their territorial waters and they had no legal means to do it?

I mean, you can argue that it's speculation, but to argue that it's speculation without basis is false. This is a highly monitored part of the Baltic Sea, right next to a Danish island, in the Swedish exclusive economic zone, and close to a Polish NATO base. It's not the middle of nowhere. It's not some place where we don't know who was there. We know who had ships there at the time of the sabotage, and who had the technical means to do it. That's when you start getting into debates about US versus UK, but not Azerbaijan versus Venezuela.

In the exercise took part Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/baltops-22-mult...

Seafox is German produced and operated by United States, United Kingdom, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Japan.

Blowing up pipelines? Russia?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-tr...

Nord Stream 2 has damaged the West enough. Time to put an end to it. by Polish and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers: https://www.politico.eu/article/nord-stream-2-pipeline-has-d...

So, your "basis" did not narrow down it too much for me.

What if I told you that I 'predicted' exactly this at the end of 2018,

while being massively intoxicated by hot wine punch on a christmas market?

(Meaning using some military manoeuvre as cover to prepare the blow-up. (BALTOPS 22, remember?))

During talking about all sorts of stuff with some bystanders, about six or seven people,

but mostly about the utter incompetence of our politicians,

the 'energiewende', the shortsightedness of 'greenery' without accounting for really all externalities.

The ruthlessness of american interests, the lies and distortions of mass media regarding geo-politics.

Our utter dependency on gas for all sorts of industrial purposes(not only heating),

and that everything will get more expensive, or even unavailable if that happens?

And that this is clear for everyone to see,

by extrapolating from what happened in the last few decades?

Also the situation regarding the Ukraine,

that there will be (larger)war,

because of constant pressure from one side,

which will be seen as crossing red lines from the other?

Until something really BURSTS?

I even got the moving of Ursula von der Leyen and Christine Lagarde from their former positions to their current ones exactly right.

Jokingly: Yeah! "Flinten-Uschi" for Euro-Queen! That would be good!(Giggle...)

But for that Lagarde has to be gone, so ECB for her!

Also Annalena Baerbock, because trends dictate something green, female, not too old, two children.

Has to be something which looks sympathic to the masses.

No matter if absolutely numbskulled, or not.

With her I've been slightly unsure about the exact position,

and opted for either chancellorette, mistress of foreign affairs, or defence.

Because being pushed by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Global_Leaders

Which led to Klaus Schwab of WEF-fame, and the 'Great Reset',

that this is no conspiracy theory, but out there in the open,

on their site?

And how that would be 'democratic' at all, if some people pushed by some rich assholes are moved into position behind the scenes,

regardless of competence, to be just the mouthpiece of their pushers?

Why don't they realize that? And that it's nothing new,

because some honest media-people said the same from the beginning of modern mass media?

Where is their critical thinking? Why do they believe in the pretentious shit bombarding them on all channels?

I also asked them if they could imagine what would happen if some(statistically long overdue) pandemic comes into play at the same time,

and pointed them to gain of function research of corona virii under less than ideal security conditions,

with either accidental or intentional release.

Remember LIHOP/MIHOP?

Suggesting that this could be used as a tool to push Bill Gates agenda,

because big business, weakening current regulations regarding proper testing of vaccines and medication in general on one hand,

and necessitating constant resupply on the other.

Also things like 'long-covid' either by unavoidable mutations of the virus, once in the wild,

side-effects of the beta-test vaccines, or both.

Also our utter unpreparedness to handle something like this,

be it the unavailability of masks, precise tests,

and general overload of health systems,

especially because of recent downsizings.

And the additional stresses that would introduce into our just-in-time optimized global economy.

Which in turn could be used as tool to weaken privacy, freedom of movement,

by introducing things like

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ID2020 and mandatory cashless society,

mandatory smartphones and apps for tracking, and so on.

Even though I'm not religious(in the traditional sense) at all,

I wondered about how it is possible that this mostly fits some older prophecies.

What weed they could have smoked, which magic mushrooms they'd have eaten,

to get this close to predict what is happening now, from a few hundred years ago?

Turning back to propaganda, Edward Bernays, the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tavistock_Institute

and how many terroristic acts of the younger past interestingly happened at the same time and place where some exercises/drills from official side were executed to prevent these.

False flags.

Am I a conspiracy nut now, or what? Crazy? Kassandros? Or just coldly analytical, even while fucking drunk?

I assure you that I'm not 'inventing' this after the fact.

I said these things in a timeframe of maybe two to three hours during the early evening,

while having five glasses of that 'punch'.

With an extra shot of berry 'schnaps' from Estonia.

(Very yummie btw.!)

Deutschland schafft sich ab!

IN VINO VERITAS!

HARR!

Edit: I'm really tired of you naive nay-sayers. You really deserve this shit. Can't be helped.

Edit: Can you imagine how I felt when I've read this a few days after release?

https://chinamediaproject.org/2020/01/27/dramatic-actions/

Like OH NOES! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! HEAD -> DESK -> BANG, BANG, BANG!

The same goes for that lil' burpie NS-1 & 2 had.

> (Meaning using some military manoeuvre as cover to prepare the blow-up. (BALTOPS 22, remember?))

BALTOPS is annual and always in the same general area, so you don't get to claim much about its timing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BALTOPS

Wasn't meant to say I predicted Baltops, I've been unaware of the specifics at the time. Just that almost no matter where and when, that there are such things, and therefore could easisly be used as cover for whatever.

I'm as a paranoid about the CIA as the next guy but the idea that they would try something like this without political cover seems unlikely to me. Further the idea the Joe Biden would even come close to signing off on this doesn't seem like any version of him. Maybe if he's genuinely off the rails and K. Harris or the Sec. Def. really is running things - maybe then I'd believe this but failing that I can't imagine him being that kind of person or anyone in the chain signing off on this without him on board.

If it was the US - and I think the chance of it not coming to light if it was to be vanishingly small - I would be really interested in the details. I would expect someone handing it to Biden as a fair acompli and him just going with it.

The US is probably the biggest beneficiary but might have asked friends to help out so they weren't so obvious. I'm not totally ruling out the Russian allegation that it was a UK/Ukrainian job, presumably with the UK advising and Ukraine doing. Still who knows?

Even blaming an enemy will be derided by many as propaganda, and any evidence dismissed as fake.

maybe the culprit could pay for europeans heating energy bills this winter?

Yes there is. Government is not supposed to be a self-serving entity. Government is there to serve the people. Democracy is meaningless without transparency.

That's basically just a restatement of the "principled commitment to truth for the sake of truth" motive for naming your own ally as the culprit. I think/hope Germany/Sweden/etc are too smart for that.

Bizarre response. It reads like you're implying that an ally of "Germany/Sweden/etc" did it.

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