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Your conclusion in (1) does not follow. You don't know how long the price of (e.g.) NRGV will be irrationally inflated, so you cannot afford to bet on when it will collapse.

Your conclusion in (2) does not follow. Jane Street works on a time scale of, at most, milliseconds.

We may be sure that Berkshire Hathaway, which does operate on longer time scales, holds no NRGV shares.

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Sure, Jane Street was the wrong example. A hedge fund, or as you say Berkshire Hathaway. But the point is, if you think that someone with deep pockets and somewhat long time horizons can reliably make money just by reading the publicly available financial information and making ordinary insurance from it, why aren't they?

And I think the answer that is confident with reality is, "actually, they do, and price in that information, such that there's no alpha left from it. Perhaps people with particular knowledge and expertise can synthesize that information with other knowledge to make useful predictions, but for an average layperson, is priced in."

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