Zoonotic Origin Evidence We Don't Have | Hacker News Reader

Zoonotic Origin Evidence We Don't Have

alexwasburne.substack.com

17 pointsricksunny9 comments

> The absence of evidence isn’t proof of absence. It is, however, evidence. The absence of evidence for black swans doesn’t mean there are no black swans, but it does mean that a theory proposing most swans are black is probably wrong.

Um, the author seems a little confused. Absence of evidence ... is evidence? Excuse me, but no. Absence of evidence means you have insufficient evidence to draw a conclusion which would be favored by the evidence.

Riffing on the black swan example: if someone claims that black swans existed, and someone else is skeptical, the onus is on the pro-black-swan side to provide evidence. The onus is not on the black swan skeptic to believe them.

However, there is a difference between the skeptic saying "I am unconvinced" and "therefore black swans (probably) do not exist." Failing to agree is not the same as strongly disagreeing.

> if someone claims that black swans existed, and someone else is skeptical, the onus is on the pro-black-swan side to provide evidence

Your example is exactly backwards. Black swan events are meaningful because they don't have prior evidence to inform their existence. This is the opposite of the case for zoonotic spillover - there is a well established pattern that should be present and is not.

Actually, your point is unintentionally correct - the black swan event here would be if zoonotic spillover DID occur, because there is substantial, expected, historically modeled, missing evidence. So, as you say, the onus is not on the lab-leak believer.

Well, I prefer to think that my point is intentionally correct, and I can't help it if the OP blog post I'm responding to has some epistemic issues which twist the whole discussion ;)

Anyway, I think the onus is on whoever is making claims, not whoever the claimant is trying to convince.

iiuc, there is additional evidence available that the virus came from a lab; but if we're focusing purely on the zoonotic spillover theory, isn't the current strongest position something like this: "claims that sars-cov-2 is purely zoonotic in origin are not consistent with the current evidence and modelling" ?

Such wording avoids the tortured epistemology of "no evidence = evidence".

In this case though, if there is a lab which explicitly researches this type of virus, and a pandemic starts right there, the onus is on the people claiming zoonotic origins. This bothered me at the time. Even if zoonotic routes are common, the chance of it happening right next to the lab from where research is done (lab leaks also occurred before) is small and suspect. If the government then blocks research into the origin... And discussing it is banned from many forums.. You no longer need a tin foil hat.

This thing leaked from the lab, until proven otherwise imho.

It’s worth noting that this would have been flagged a year ago. Everyone who loves satisfying intellectual curiosity ought to ask why and not let it happen again.

When the history is written some decades hence, the possibility of hanky-panky at the state actor level might creep in.

A year ago? Similar toned & themed article from the same author was flagged less than one month ago (see comments of link). Had to get unflagged. Alina Chan can’t get her manuscripts past peer reviewers, who specifically cite her advocacy online, in top journals.

The de-platforming funny business is still very much going on.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33318307

I guess his 2nd try a bat:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-10-scientific-response-s...

I found this the most compelling evidence I’ve read to date on the topic.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com