Some projections are signalling deflation on the horizon.

Given the brutal cost of living crisis, I suspect the government and BoE have grossly underestimated how hard things are getting (and how much harder they'll eventually get) for a giant slice of the population.

I'm an absolute lay person here, but surely maintaining (relatively) higher interest rates whilst cutting government investment and raising the tax burden to post war highs during the worst cost of living crisis in a generation is an economic wrecking ball.

If my naive take is anywhere close to sensible, I'd bet on a screeching u-turn and rates lowering again to try and rescue the situation.

Side question: what are "normal" levels for interest rates? I hear people use this term all the time (usually while advocating for hawkish rises in some direct or implied way). Surely the interest rate mechanism is inherently dynamic and therefor entirely context specific, rendering the notion of a "normal" level useless.

There's been some research [0] that the last decade has seen the lowest interest rates in 5,000 years.

We have been continually increasing solving market problems by just creating more credit but eventually you have to pay your debts.

We're headed for trouble potentially bigger than anything we've seen before if we continue on this path.

0. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/A+History+of+Interest+Rates%2C+4...