Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

This is the best time to try it. Labor has all the power, and will into the future due to structural demographics.

For capital, it never seems to be a good time to try anything that doesn’t allow for maximum extraction or any semblance of labor power or quality of life improvements. For example, US railroad workers are about to strike because they dare ask for paid sick leave. It’ll cost $2B/day to the US economy, not because of unreasonable demands (paid sick leave!), but because of unreasonable management and shareholders.

Edit: (can’t reply, HN throttling) Good luck attempting to solve for labor power with immigration. Folks who lean right (and a cohort of centrists) don’t want it, and they still have enough voting power to be somewhat relevant for the next 5-10 years (in the US, the UK, and many parts of Europe; Italy’s most recent elections showcase this), as electorate turnover takes time, not to mention declining fertility rates everywhere squeezing the young, productive cohort globally.

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/21/1137640529/railroads-freight-...

>Folks who lean right (and a cohort of centrists) don’t want it

Right wing isn't really that popular in most developed/rich EU countries though. Most of them have quite left leaning population and leaders.

And many of the richer countries want immigration but not publicly admitting it, but do it under the table, due to pressure from business groups and lobbyists, who hope this will aid with the labor shortage (translation for jobs with shitty pay and downward pressure on wages) while also pushing up demand for housing/rents, and demand for consumer goods in the retail sector. All of which benefit the business and ruling elite.

Immigration to UK is at its highest year ever despite Brexit and Covid having thrown wrenches in immigration movements.

Same for continental Europe. Refugees and migrants are coming weekly by the thousands by sea and land, and there's nothing the right wing parties can do about it, as long as migrants can cross the border then claim refugee status and know how to play the refugee game, the host country can't deny them that as it's guaranteed by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), and if they do deny them that right, then the country can be sued and will lose.

So, for that to work, the right wing leaders would have to first get their country out of the ECHR, and then they can deny refugees/migrants.

Capital will just push for ever bigger immigration to counter labour.

How? Labour has all the voting power, capital only wins if they can manipulate labour to vote against its own interests like they managed in USA.

It looks like in US labour can vote either for corporations or for importing ever more cheap labour.

Some in Europe were labour was manipulated to vote for migration-friendly parties. Although now this seems to be changing with growing economically left but anti-immigration so-called „right wing“ parties.

"Labor" in many EU countries have been manipulated into voting against their own interests on several topics (Brexit, anti nuclear energy, pro illegal immigration, anti taxes for the rich, longer working hours, etc.) to the point most voters don't care anymore.

And plus, even if the "pro-labor" leader would win elections, there's nothing that forbid him/her from following up on the election promises till the end of his/her term. They can just do whatever their campaign donors/lobbyists pay them to do as once their political career is over, they'll have a cushy job guaranteed in the private sector enterprises they "helped" during their term. It's the classic political-private sector revolving dor.

Case in point, all EU leader have promised to tackle housing, and yet, during their terms, housing has gotten more and more out of reach with each passing year, proving that your voted leaders are not on your side, they just claim they are to win your votes. German and Austrian politicians who helped kill nuclear, took major lucrative jobs in Russian oil and gas companies afterwards. The list can go on. We basically have legalized high level corruption.

Doesn't European labor want to move to the US for the higher wages?

Eh? The majority don't. Quality of life in western Europe is generally excellent.

Pay in the US is attractive, but doesn't make up for what you lose from being in many European countries. Health care, public transport, well maintained roads, better work-life balance, more vacation time, less poverty, won't get murdered in a mass shooting etc. Your mobility as a citizen in the EU is excellent as well, free to travel to so many different cultures.

I live in the UK, and this country is probably going to get much worse. But I still wouldn't trade it just for a higher US salary.

Simply invite labour over from countries like Poland - then deny them a vote, because they're not citizens.

Only sub-Saharan Africa is left with fertility rates above replacement. China is likely to start seeing population decline within 15 years or so. Which is not to say that they won't try, but we're about to see competitive pressure applied to immigration as well, coupled with a significant number of voters still opposed to immigration.

> ”China is likely to start seeing population decline within 15 years or so.”

China’s population may already be declining. 2022 is likely to be the first time China’s population has declined in over 60 years.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/franklavin/2022/10/12/chinas-de...

(Incidentally, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.)

So? There's still lots and lots and lots of cheap labor to import for decades.

The „competitive pressure“ will just worsen corporate pressure on local labour. Oh, immigration is getting lower, so we need more tax exemptions for new arrivals! Think „digital nomads“ (or whatever fancy term nowadays) visas.

It's insufficient to have cheap unskilled labour. Shortages of skilled labour will come much sooner.

More importantly, even small changes in demand means immigrants can and will be more picky about where to go.

Growth in their original countries also means a reduced supply of willing candidates. E.g. the UK saw that with Polish immigrants in the building trade who started returning as salaries increased at home, despite the disparity still being huge.

As the demographics shift starts hitting more countries, it's not just that the total number of people in working age in those countries drop, but the proportion of them who has it financially bad enough at home to want to leave drops.

> ”Polish immigrants in the building trade who started returning as salaries increased at home, despite the disparity still being huge.”

There has always been steady flow of Polish migrant workers to and from the UK. Workers would make money and develop skills in the UK, sometimes remaining permanently but also often returning after a number of years, particularly once you get you the “raising a family” stage in life where lower cost of living and being close to extended family becomes a bigger attraction.

The difference now is that the supply of new workers has been reduced by Brexit, so only those existing workers with residency rights remain. I doubt there has been any significant increase in the number of workers leaving, aside from temporary changes during the pandemic.

The return of Polish workers and falloff of new ones started several years before Brexit, as Poland started experiencing a lack of skilled builders and salaries grew significantly as a result. Exchange rate changes also contributed significantly. The same effect was seen elsewhere too, e.g. in Norway.

The first reports of a massively reduced influx goes as far back as 2008, which is also when we started seeing reports of a significant outflow w/the Home Office estimating in 2008 that about 25% returned.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com