It's just those authors overwhelmingly work in the United States, and rarely in other allied countries. Perhaps the highest-cited ML paper that can be attributed to Mainland China is still affiliated with Microsoft [1].
The fearmongering is miscalibrated, whether it be about PRC-developed AGI or about Chinese people stealing our tech. To a great extent, they are building it.
Native Chinese development, on the other hand, is exactly like OP says, incremental and constrained to internal-policing-related niches like face recognition (actually that's pretty much it). They also opensource pretty powerful models [2], [3], so that's nice of them.
But nothing seriously game-breaking.
1. https://arxiv.org/abs/1506.01497