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Comment by bsder | Hacker News Reader

The longer Xi Jingping stays in power the less I worry about China on the international stage.

The subleaders will need to do increasingly extreme things in order to show results to the Supreme Leader. That's starting to play out--the Apple shakedown, Chinese police stations in foreign countries, etc. Those things have finally gotten the Western powers to realize that China is a genuine enemy, and they are starting to retaliate.

In addition, now that Russia has basically been dismantled, the defense system in America needs a new boogeyman. Congratulations, China, you're on deck.

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> Russia has basically been dismantled

Western press proving day-in day-out how primitive Pravda was.

Oh my god that's so true. It's like they've invented hire order lying.

Russia hasn't been dismantled unfortunately. There's a good chance they end up with more territory.

Russia is definitely taken apart. They may be able to hold that bit of territory with suicidal bodies in trenches, but they are in really bad shape.

They are down to ancient weapons, ancient tanks, their Navy almost entirely defunct.

Most of their 'fast air' remains.

And they are going to have a very difficult time rebuilding with sanctions, and the severe economic problems with talent and resources.

They could 'come back' over a decade but I suggest Europe is becoming ready for that, and without the offer on the table of a nice, juicy, undefended territory, neither Putin nor his successors will have much luck.

It's the ambiguity that's the problem.

> They could 'come back' over a decade

With what replacement population for their current military age population? No, it's now or never for Russia.

They have enough population.

Which will simply become controlled by China--if Russia can even hold onto the territory (this winter will be telling).

Russia is now effectively a pending Chinese vassal state caused by their coming rebuild. No one else is going to support them, and Russia has wiped out a big chunk of their workforce--both young labor as well as older brainpower. So, Russia will have to turn to China for both labor and brainpower at the cost of sovereignty.

The only thing that would prevent Russia from becoming a Chinese vassal is if they somehow wind up with a leader smart enough to pair up with India.

> The only thing that would prevent Russia from becoming a Chinese vassal is if they somehow wind up with a leader smart enough to pair up with India.

Neither China nor India have the military reach to defend Russia. The overarching reason Russia is waging this war is how blood curdingly difficult it is to defend Russia at the best of times with local populations, short (as possible) supply lines, and decades of preparation. Now bring in an Asian power that would have to extend its reach over thousands of miles through tundra and desert with hostile populations along the way. They're not even going to attempt to do that.

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