You are definitive about defense spending in a recession. This is wrong. Aspects of the government will begin pulling back. We do not know how this will effect tsmc.
This move from a profitablity standpoint is break even as far as we know. It makes no economic sense.
Btw. This isn't something I'm making up. The CEO of tsmc mark liu stated this to Nancy pelosi during her visit. Also her husband is dumping tsmc stocks for unknown reasons.