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On NPR Marketplace recently there was a utility-size transformer maker interviewed who said their current lead time was well over a year.

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/11/14/a-shortage-of-electri...

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That's for new orders not an indication of replacement depth held by the utility companies though. Also in an emergency orders could be redirected to companies that need them unless it's a country-wide damaging event.

Right, but power companies likely hold enough for a year's worth of natural disasters + a 10-20% cushion. Sabotage can be a lot more destructive than random failure.

> power companies likely hold enough for a year's worth of natural disasters + a 10-20% cushion

Do you have a source for this?

I think you're basically agreeing with what I'm saying. Small scale localized disasters aren't going to take a year to repair because companies keep some repair stock on hand or have replacements in the pipeline for existing equipment. It's only when we get to disasters that threaten to completely deplete repair/reserve stocks that the 1 year wait time for new grid scale transformers becomes truly concerning.

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