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Comment by FpUser | Hacker News Reader

I guess this is TSMCs getaway if things will get sour with China.

In a sense.. Currently western liberal democracies have a monopoly on the most advanced microprocessor manufacturing tech.. And they plan to keep it that way indefinitely.

This "sours the milk" so to speak and it makes it easier to take TSMC off the board.

For one, if there was ever any real consideration by China of forceful takeover it would be made clear TSMC would not be a spoil of war. This makes a scorched earth threat even more credible.

For two, it disincentizes playing games with Taiwan as a pawn based on the wests reliance on chips flowing out. Knowing the chips are flowing in large quantities from other countries removes the lynchpin status.

Third, it stabilizes supply in the chance that something does happen. Maybe a natural disaster. Maybe a blockade.

Remember when Warren Buffet invested into TSMC and someone said he must know something we don't?

TSMC has had a license to print money for a while now given how huge ASML’s backlog is.

Is ASML even going to be able to meet the demand created by all these fabs opening up across the US (and rest of the world)?

The stories I've heard about what it takes to build a single machine would suggest to me that scaling up would be a huge feat and I could only imagine take years to accomplish.

Then again, perhaps TSMC and their peers had predicted this kind of growth and already placed their orders long ago?

Maybe they will just move a chunk of existing fab?

ASML has now $32+B worth of backlog and they are still able to make only ~40+ EUV per year.

I keep wondering if this is different than when Foxconn announced a $10b investment in Wisconsin but carried through less than 10% of that?

Judging by the pictures, TSMC is building a lot of expensive-looking stuff out in Arizona. I know they're both Taiwanese companies but this project seems a bit different.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-to...

Buffet probably knows little or nothing about the fab industry and probably didn't make this investment decision.

TSMC is upping their investment in the US, but I agree with Morris Chang that the US operation won't be as lucrative -- ie, thye won't be able to maintain 50+% profit margin. Further, TSMC really didn't have any competition in the last 2-3 nodes and Samsung was largely absent in 7/5/4nm, but Samsung is going mass production with 3nm GAA pretty soon and TSMC is going to have to put up a good fight to maintain their dominance.

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

>"I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot."

I am not sure about "without even firing a shot" part but golden parachute type people and important staff will most likely be relocated to the US right before that and the rest of Taiwanese will have to suck it up. Yes very sad story and I hope it does not happen.

I think about half Taiwan exports go to the mainland. That is a signficant pull towards people favoring unification, if China really wants to play hardball. (And they will.) It all depends on the Taiwanese will to fight.

If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. Wargame simulations are ways for the pentagon to get more money from congress… the reality is that invasions aren’t easy to hide and never go quite as planned.

If you disagree just go read up on the wargames and predictions for a Russian invasion of Ukrainian. Most people thought they’d reach Poland in days, if not hours. And they had the second most capable military in the world, on paper.

It’s also important to remember that a war game that your military wins isn’t a very useful war game. The whole goal is to find blind spots in military strategy and planning. “Nah we’re good everything is great” is how you end up getting worked by Ukraine.

> If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath.

For which side? No one knows.

There would be so many factors at play, both military and economic, that it is almost impossible to predict how things would play out. All anyone knows is that China's capabilities have increased many times over in the last 20 or so years, and that they are increasing every year. However, no country on Earth has fought a war on this scale for decades (with the possible exception of Russia and Ukraine right now), so no one knows what the outcome would be.

That's why I said "without firing a shot". Yes, a full-on invasion would most certainly be complicated. But the war excercises China is conducting are done for the purposes of intimidation, getting concessions before it even comes to that.

> US has removed fighter jets from Japan.

They’re phasing out older variants of the F-15 C. They will be replaced by F-15 EXs when they are ready, and until then the old F-15s will be replaced with F-22s

Well, that's good to know. I hope you're right. The story I read neglected to mention that information.

> And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation.

Huh? No it hasn’t. Taiwan doesn’t want to end up like Hong kong. They know the 1 country 2 systems doesn’t exist. Taiwan is already an independent country. They just want to keep status quo so China will leave them alone.

There is still widespread anti-unification support, but, as with everything, it's a bit more complex. Recent elections took a bit of the wind out of its sails. Chinese military excercises have taken somewhat of a toll. I know they don't want to end up like Hong Kong, but these public shifts matter if the people don't think they are being supported internationally.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/taiwan-el...

Local elections don’t have any influence on national elections. Green always loses more to blue. The issue at national level isn’t anything to do with anti unification or anything like that. Alot of people here feel like real issues are not being dealt with. Like the cost of living continues to go up and isn’t addressed.

Well, I hope you're right. I'd hate to see Taiwan fall. It will be up to the Taiwanese on how hard they want to fight. Unfortunately, if they sense it's a losing proposition, many may end up throwing in the towel. That's what I fear.

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