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Comment by mandevil | Hacker News Reader

I recall reading that modern chips use argon-neon-flourine lasers, (roughly 75% of the world's neon goes into the semiconductor industry) and ~50% of the world's neon comes from Ukraine.

This is because the Haber process, necessary for fertilizer, involves industrial quantities of forced air, and the USSR put adapters on their Haber process plants for gathering inert gases for titanium welding back in the 1970's, and those are now used to gather materials for semiconductors around the world. I don't know enough whether US or other Haber plants could also be adapted to gather up these noble gases, but presumably it would be more expensive than using what the Ukraine provided, or else it would have been done before.

That is one issue among many, obviously, but it suggests the scale of the problem for making all domestic supply chains.

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If 50% of the world's neon comes from Ukraine, then 50% comes from outside Ukraine.

According to [1] 50.1% comes from the top 3 countries. And the worldwide market size is about $220 MM/year.

Let's say that these TSMC plants will consume fully 5% of one year's worth of worldwide production (this is an ultraconservative estimate, as the whole computer industry's share of the neon gas market is 50%). That would be about $10 MM. Even if the neon gas price spikes up by a factor of 10 or 20, it wouldn't move the needle when it comes to a $40 BN investment.

[1] https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/neon-gas-market

I've had to look this up because everyone also brings up this point without any proper details.

The exact numbers are not known. It's supposedly 45%-55% (at the beginning people were claiming 70%). It's limited to 2 factories. One in Odessa and one in Mariupol.

Both of them shut down somewhere at the start of this whole endeavour. The Mariupol one is already in the hands of Russians. It wasn't that close to Azovstal, so it's due to reopen. The one in Odessa will not reopen until the Russians either take it or Ukraine agrees to the deal judging by all the missile strikes. But for the short term future its out of commission.

The fundamental part here is this:

If this is really such a big deal as everyone claims it is, then people will inevitably have to find a compromise with Russia.

But I will repeat again one thing that people don't seem to grasp. Arounds 30% of the worlds commodities are exported by Russia, another ~30% are exported by the US. The difference between these two is that Russia exports its own commodities and the US exports not only its own, but also its "little colonies" like Trinidad and Tobago commodities. You cannot just turn off the tap on 30% of the worlds commodities.

Alternatively Russia could fuck off and leave.

Oh, but you can. You see, there's this mechanism called price. If there's not enough of something, prices go up, and sources that were uneconomical become all of a sudden profitable.

> If this is really such a big deal as everyone claims it is, then people will inevitably have to find a compromise with Russia.

Why? Better to defeat them militarily and solve the problem once and for all - even if the world has to get by with slightly less advanced chips for a while.

Solving problems once and for all is very hard. Our track record with that is less than stellar. I agree with you, Russia needs to be defeated. But that is for moral reasons, not because it is overall the best economic solution for the world. Rather in spite of the economic consequences.

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