I can't speak to the second half of what you said, but for the first half: The jump is not as big as you think for any competent piece of automation.

Using your example of a blacksmith upgraded to machine shop worker, then later upgraded to robotic machine shop worker. In the first upgrade, the blacksmith no longer needs to hammer iron as this is done by a drop press. The skill lost (big arms for hammering) is replaced by a many fold increase in productivity and a removal of many people alternating hammering.

In the second upgrade, using robots for production, you do need to learn some programming, but the programming is centered on such industrial applications. In modern cobots you don't need 3D math or almost any programming knowledge. You just need to give it a set of steps to follow and you can lead it by hand https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iCLK__7ymY

As with most automation, the initial prototype is more cumbersome to use, but eventually it becomes a tool like any other.