If rates move up to 5+ or 6 percent, and then move back down to 4 or 3, the market will explode up.
Not saying that will happen, it's just interesting.
Expectations and state dependence [1] are important in linking rate changes to the stock market.
I’m not saying that’s definitely the case for you, and I’m guessing you’ve already thought about this, but figured I would throw it out there. Sorry you have to stress about this.
How is this possible?
I always figured the "x00K in student debt" stories were people who took out a lot of non-subsidized loans and let interest accrue for years.
Turning off the interest for a few years has no upper bound as to how much it can benefit someone. Someone with large principal amounts can easily see more than $10k of benefit.
And that doesn't count the people who have paid no interest during the period, the interest amount is gone forever for that time; which could quickly overstep the $10k "forgiveness" that is being talked about.
On the other hand, is it just me, or is the Fed really addressing a symptom and not the cause? Sure, inflation will be finally squelched, but the housing market will be on life support because of the absurd rates, coupled with already absurd prices even if the increases have ceased. Fix that, and inflation will come roaring back...?
The housing market should have been taken out back and shot decades ago. There's no universe in which a dwelling in a proper city[1] can cost a million dollars, while median wages are in the 50-60k range, and low-class wages are 35-40k.
You can't have housing be affordable to normal people and also be a profitable investment. One of these has to give.
[1] Houses in third-tier and fourth-tier cities (medium income closer to 30k) - the kind of places that everyone with means wants to get the hell out of - are going for 300k+.