Rather than a full effect system, we're very likely to have lexically scoped "checked" effects with the help of modal types. I briefly talked about it at the end of my ICFP keynote: https://icfp22.sigplan.org/details/icfp-2022-papers/48/Retro...
There are other cool stuff that is being worked on, which I am very excited about: https://discuss.ocaml.org/t/jane-street-compiler-development.... Hopefully, we will see many of these make it into OCaml 6.