> But what they leave out is that it’s input luck, not output luck. Inputs like a “small” $10k gift from a family member. Clean water and high nutrition during childhood that lead to above average intelligence. Literacy, citizenship, family wealth, and more.
Hm, no, even if all of those things are equal the expected outcome is still failure. Your comparison works on the world stage but say within the population of a wealthy country and even just one wealthy city if 100 people were to go down this path only one or two will have a success that offsets their opportunity cost.
The kind of luck that entrepreneurs are talking about in this context is more related to markets being ripe just as your product hits them, technologies going mainstream, meeting the right business contact or partners early on and so on. Those little things can make - or break - a business depending on if they happen or not.