World economy to experience recession in 2023 | Hacker News Reader

World economy to experience recession in 2023

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23 pointssaikatsg20 comments

Well, duh. Was anyone expecting anything else by now?

Aren't recessions identified after the fact?

If I only listened to media over the past year, I would think we're already deep into a depression.

Car crashes are also identified after the fact. Doesn't make it unreasonable to declare one when you first notice your wheels have lost traction on the ice. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2YM

Plenty of people spin out without hitting anything.

You should probably click through the link before trying to extend the metaphor.

Does it explain why someone would say their car crashed without it having crashed

It explains why you should try to learn anything about a subject before trying to comment on it.

Jesus I need to stop expecting better from this website.

It doesn't inspire confidence that you refuse to make comments that can stand up logically without adding a context dump link. Hard pass

>It doesn't inspire confidence that you think my aggressive misreading of your statement matters less than your ability to back it up empirically that I don't know how to read

Oh how will I ever live with myself

>I need to stop expecting better from adult /g/

You are correct, but technology generally necessitates an almost ideological commitment to optimism. Therefore I blame the subject matter instead of myself.

If a car is 5 meters from a wall going at 80mph straight into it, the car will 100% crash into a wall.

No ice conditions needed.

The example with icy conditions though is that once your car noticeably lost traction you know perfectly well you are no longer in control and that there's nothing you can do to save yourself rather than betting on getting lucky.

Do you think this analogy captures the nuances of this situation? Or is it just vaguely aligned with your opinion?

The nuances of this situation is that the yield curve hasn't been this inverted in 40 years, and successfully indicated every actual recession in that time. Like I said to the other user, you should click through to the link.

There's something deeply troubling about this pattern of response:

>>>>We're headed for a recession.

>>>Are you sure you don't just wish we were headed for a recession, for vindication of your opinion?

>>I derived this opinion from a longstanding indicator, which you can see here: [LINK]

>Are you sure you don't just wish that was a longstanding indicator, for vindication of your opinion?

Then share your opinion, share your evidence, explain and Your thinking instead of providing a dumb analogy that gets people debating the nuances of the ANALOGY instead of the actual issue.

Are you just blind to text in the form of a url? I did both. It's not my fault you, or anyone else, finds it convenient to pretend I didn't.

One way to read the negative spread between the 10 year Treasuries and the 2 year Treasuries is that at some point beyond 2 years the Fed will lower the rates and keep them low for a while. That's consistent with a recession. But not in 2023. Maybe in 2025.

Something tells me the Centre for Economic and Business Research is looking at slightly more information than the single graph I bothered to pull off fred for the sake of an internet comment implying we weren't going to have a recession period.

You don’t need the media to see we are in a deep depression the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the Great Depression.

Did you know housing is less affordable now than it was during the Great Depression? [1]

Most food was also cheaper adjusted for inflation, with some exceptions, like milk.

You could say something like “but unemployment isn’t even close” — except with the way unemployment is calculated, many people who aren’t working are not considered unemployed. In my experience driving around this country, I watched as pristine countryside during Covid turned over the years into nomadic cities of impoverished people. The 525 outside of Sedona, BLM and National Forest land all over the country, turning into cities of people without homes, evading rent and modern serfdom, or just not being able to keep up with anything.

For these people, we are in a Great Depression. During the Great Depression, there were also many people still employed. The employed people still lived a good life. The difference is, the employed people had to physically go to work, interact with the community and society at large, and had to come face to face with the depression around them.

With the internet, remote work, the norm of package delivery, food delivery, grocery delivery, and the digitization of banking & digital services, along with the digitization of finance, there is no need for that any longer. People with means can completely insulate from the suffering of lower class.

So for them, we never need to be in a Great Depression ever again — as saying so would shatter the illusion of abundance being portrayed.

I know we are in a Great Depression because I have seen it with my own eyes as I wander this country. The strange thing is, most everyone else doesn’t seem to see it.

[1] https://relevantmagazine.com/current/nation/report-its-harde...

You may be right. I haven't wandered around, recently. But, from what have seen, even those places most destitute, they're not much worse off than what I experienced in the 80s and 90s.

Now, it's a shame that those places haven't experienced the growth and vibrance that many areas did over the past 30 years. But, having lived in the US without basic necessities like housing, plumbing, food, or heat, I will say that it doesn't seem as bad as you make it.

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