I searched a bit, and I think I'm the only HN predictor that thinks Russia is going to win the Ukraine war. I've been saying that since day 1. A lot of my thinking is influenced by J.R Nyquist who has been talking about the Russian plans to revive the Soviet Union since the 1990s. He believes that Russian defectors in the 80s were correct in saying the Russians were going to do Perestroika as a strategic retreat because they knew they couldn't catch up with the west with a centralized economy. He has generally been dismissed as a paranoid for many years for thinking that there was any chance of a revived Russian/Soviet empire.