I hope things get better, but I think you'd be mad to plan for global growth this year.
Like what countries exactly? They can't even hold the ground they conquered in the previous months in Ukraine. Armenia already asked Russia's help and they refused - it was effectively a fatal blow to CSTO and has far-reaching consequences to the way Russia is perceived among its current and former allies.
And if the GP says that they don't have the military strength to pull that off, well, they don't. But they don't have the military strength to defeat Ukraine, and yet the fighting goes on, in complete defiance of sanity. No, Russia can't (successfully) invade either place. That doesn't mean he won't try. If I were Finland or Poland, I'd be preparing hard right now.
On the other hand, in Finland and Poland there is no similar plan A, only total war with NATO. It is not impossible, but from the geopolitical POV it makes no sense at all.
Because the West is throwing lots of resources at that. Should that resolve crumble, that could change.
> Armenia already asked Russia’s help and they refused - it was effectively a fatal blow to CSTO and has far-reaching consequences to the way Russia is perceived among its current and former allies.
Should the West shift to a more containment-oriented policy, the beyond-Ukraine danger is largely to CSTO countries. (Yes, they are nominal allies, but so was Afghanistan.)
And Russia has backed themselves into a corner, diplomatically. Not even the other CIS members have enthusiasm for Putin. So this idiot, who started this desperate for a legacy, only has a prison sentence for war crimes or a nuclear firework party in his future.
It is right to mock Russia's decisions, it's right to point out how pathetic their war has been, but it isn't right to claim they have no power to affect others near to them.
To fight on territory which isn't recognized as Armenian by everyone else. A reminder that Russian peacekeeping unit is at the Armenian-Karabakh border, not Karabakh-Azeri.
China is building bases around the South China Sea, pushing borders back, commandeering fishing rights, making a claim on Taiwan and their territories, and pushing very close to US naval support in the area. What has the West done?
We're paralysed by our inability to build stuff, and our unwillingness to go against the electorate and actually stop them buying all the Chinese tat that they do. Our reliance on their mineral mining and processing means cutting them out means far worse than a recession in the short term. It would take two decades to even come close to replacing China and at an unimaginable construction cost because much of the world doesn't even make its own steel any more. And China has links, they own significant portions of Africa's mining rights.
China are untouchable and their military and their nukes have nothing to do with it. China has real power. If you ever want to imagine the end of the world, imagine what happens if we can't buy cheap shit from China and follow the thread through to a conclusion.
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But why would they help Russia? That's probably a better avenue of thought. Russia has crazy territory, and resources without the real means to explore of extract.
Russia could make it worth their while.
The latest developments already complicated the getting cheap shit from China part.
Look at the Kurds, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Iran, Korea, Vietnam, Yemen, Palestine, Egypt, Pakistan, Central America, South America, Africa. Look at the IMF. People like Fred Hampton, MLK, murdered by the West.
> If you ever want to imagine the end of the world, imagine what happens if we can't buy cheap shit from China and follow the thread through to a conclusion.
The west should stop exploiting all the poorer countries. Capitalism sucks. If the west can’t live without exploiting other people, the west doesn’t deserve comfy lives.
Although I agree with your sentiment in general, I don't like when people lump Yugoslavia with the rest. The West didn't start that war, it effectively ended it. They did what they failed to do in Rwanda.
You could say 'it's not their job, if people like killing each other let them kill themselves.' But it wasn't so. There were aggressors and there were victims. There is something sinister in watching people die when crying for your help just because you don't want to get involved. So while cases like Iraq and Afghanistan are clear-cut - these were just acts of bloody aggression fueled by feelings of revenge - Yugoslavia (and a few others on your list) are not.
No, Russia can demonstrably not hold much territory in other countries. But Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states would be foolish not to recognize that Putin desperately wants them back under his thumb, and is willing to go to obviously irrational lengths to attempt to fulfill his desires, however unrealistic.
Plus, he still has nukes, at least some of which are almost certainly still functional.
The CSTO is mainly just Russia and they've demonstrated they're incapable of providing military aid to their members. However, Russia getting allied with Iran and China and their puppet North Korea is a problem.
I really wish the US defeats Russia again, like it happened with the USSR, but that's just wishful thinking. We are tired of Germany and France doing business as usual with Russia. Poland basically has zero trust in the EU handling Russia, that's why they arm themselves to the teeth. The others need to look at Poland and get their act together.