The most effective deterrent to war is to put the fear of death in the people who decide whether or not to start wars. MAD theory, while technically wrong, was a good enough story that it averted several catastrophic nuclear attacks. If only because the people with their fingers on the buttons second-guessed themselves long enough for reports to come in that it was actually just the light reflecting off the ocean and not an incoming American ICBM.
[0] Yes, I mean this in the same context that one might refer to a technological singularity. Social existence today is a nested hierarchy of supra-individual social structures, of which superhuman AGI will merely be one of its subagents.
[1] Though they did come close in the 1800s over Staten Island. They call it the Empire State for a reason.
The premise of The Great Illusion is that international trade is a very good deterrent to war. The book doesn't argue that it's an 'okay-ish' deterrent to war, it claimed that WW1 was extremely unlikely to occur and that if it did, it would be over quickly. Not only did WW1 happen, so did WW2 a few years later. Neither war was short, and even more and bloodier wars after WW2 would have been a damn good bet if not for the invention of nuclear bombs.