#1921 – Peter Zeihan | Hacker News Reader

#1921 – Peter Zeihan

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7 pointsjger158 comments

Having never heard of this person I searched youtube for his name, and watched some of his "EV's not-so-little dirty secret(s)" video [0]. In it he claims the entry-level electric F150 is $90,000. This is easily verified so I bothered to check. According to [1] the base price is $39,974 and the MAX price power/trim level is $90k:

> The base price of the commercial-grade version all-wheel drive (AWD) truck in the United States was announced to be US$39,974, with higher-power/trim/range models priced all the way up to US$90,000

Why should I care about anything this guy says? His manner of speaking strikes me as an overconfident charlatan, and his apparent deliberate choice to put forth the maximally expensive F150 EV model as the base price causes me to question his honesty/accuracy in general.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qf85EuQKWeQ

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_F-150_Lightning_(electric...

The fact that you don't know who he is does not help your argument. EVs have a large carbon footprint that takes time to balance, and they won't be replacing ICEs anytime soon.

A fantastic podcast. Brilliant analyses on Russia. Some quite devastating to be honest.

I'm a few minutes into the podcast and Zeihan has already said stuff like:

* Putin would never throw an atomic bomb to the US because the US always knows where Putin is and we would just bomb him back and terminate him.

* Even if "the Chinese" took Taiwan they wouldn't be able to take advantage of the semiconductor industry. They can't operate their own.

* Russia needs to integrate a number of countries that would double its size to feel safe. If they don't achieve this they have a huge border and not enough troops to protect it.

* "We" listen to everything "the Russian" and "the Chinese" say, the Chinese room is silent. Therefore Xi Jinping is completely isolated. This is the biggest danger in a war with Taiwan.

* If Ukraine falls, Poland is next, NATO will get involved, Russia will get destroyed, thus Russia will probably use nukes.

* I'm almost quoting here: "the plan for the Chinese in the next 10 years is to beat the nationalist drum so that when the food and the energy run out everybody bands together only because they are Han Chinese"

The certainty of his statements could be translated into billons, is this guy a billionaire?

I've been following Peter Zeihan for a short while now, and am in the midst of reading his latest book. He writes reasonably well and can usually present convincing data and behavioural patterns to support his arguments. I do, however, fear that he maybe taking the Jordan Peterson route to further fame. We mustn't forget that we live in a world of spectacle and theatre where how things are presented is just as important as what is presented, even if it means stepping beyond the bounds of credibility. I'm not defending him. I am disappointed if this is the case as he does have some worthwhile things to say and consider.

A book is probably a much better format than a podcast. It looks like he just makes assertions without justifying anything.

One of the most important (or the only) metric in his field should be how well you can predict things, and he has a poor track record [0]. He's nowhere close to the top 1% forecasters, so overall I think there are many many sources that understand geopolitics better than him.

[0] https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/01/here-is-what-peter-zei...

What's wrong with any of those statements?

> Putin would never throw an atomic bomb to the US because the US always knows where Putin is and we would just bomb him back and terminate him.

What if he just goes underground? Russia doesn't have a single nuclear bunker? What if he's terminally ill and doesn't care? Do we know USA would retaliate with another nuke? Are you confident of that, or maybe USA would hold off?

So many uncertainties and in contrast you have a man speaking without a shadow of a doubt.

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