The problem with citing incompetence as a reason not to worry about the Jan 6th insurrection is that there are such obvious examples in history of people who tried to overthrow a government, did it badly, got locked up, eventually got out, and then went on to.... actually overthrow the government! Like, it's quite difficult not to mention the Beer Hall Putsch. The lesson from one failed insurrection isn't "Haha! You guys failed this time". It's "Holy fuck those guys are actually going to try and line us all up against a wall given half a chance".