Manufacturing certainty on the origin of Covid-19 is damaging to science | Hacker News Reader

Manufacturing certainty on the origin of Covid-19 is damaging to science

the-microbiologist.com

21 pointsbaja_blast12 comments

I mostly agree, but how is this part of the piece relevant? Why should it matter what most of the public, American or whatever, believe?

> Polls show that most of the American public, regardless of their political leanings, believes the virus came from a laboratory, and, in 25 of 26 countries surveyed, more people think the virus came from a lab rather than nature.

To me the "it's natural, okay!" scientists aren't behaving like scientists, more like the "The world is flat, ok!" theologians in the time of Galileo.

The side that are also so certain that "The Chinese made it!" are also unscientific, in my opinion. We just don't know yet and there's not much investigating we can do.

> We just don't know yet and there's not much investigating we can do.

Because a certain country made sure to destroy evidences from the suspected lab?

It's relevant for two reasons.

First, lay people presented with competing expert arguments are generally reliable. Not universally, of course, but often enough that it's probative. It is useful to get a "gut check" from someone who isn't close to an issue, the comparative increase in objectivity outweighs the comparative loss in expertise.

Second, regardless of the abstract question of any particular hypothesis, the credibility of the scientific field in the eyes of the citizenry is important. Even if a scientist knew with certainty that the lab leak hypothesis were false, wasting credibility on that position without compelling evidence would be "damaging to science," in the sense that it decreases the influence of experts and, likely, their funding.

TL;DR: It's important because, when choosing a hill to die on, you have to account for the strength of your evidence and whether people are inclined to believe you. The opinion polls are relevant to the latter question.

While there is no inherent proof in actions, deleting data and denying access to labs and data does not inspire confidence when the WIV makes claims one way or another.

And it's not just the Chinese scientists that are withholding data and research records. Western scientists that collaborated with the lab have also refused to share data/records. You'd think if their research was so vital and important sharing everything they have would be a priority. But not only do they refuse to share data, but the majority of outspoken virologists seem uninterested into looking into and studying all the data they have collected over the years.

It seems virologists value their careers over uncovering the truth. And if this dangerous research is so important, why would the virology community be so disinterested? To me that's proof enough to ban any research that enhances novel animal viruses.

Public sentiment is what dictates how effective public policies will be. People will only agree to things, like getting a vaccine, if they hear it from someone they trust. Ignoring what the public believes, instead of educating and acknowledging concerns, is how you create the current strong anti-science sentiment across the globe. Vaccine hesitancy isn't isolated to USA, it's not even isolated to developed countries.

If the government makes guidelines about sailing based on the framework that the world is flat, but everyone believes the world is round, people won't follow them. Most people don't see scientific evidence in a unattached objective way or even look for boths sides. Most people don't make value judgments based on what's scientific.

The more damaging thing to science, in my opinion was the stigma that became assocaited with questioning experts. In some situations, public official made using deductive reasoning politicized. The entire point of science is making a hypothesis and testing it. The value of science comes from being allowed to be wrong without judgement. Showing something is wrong is what allows research to then move towards the "right" direction. But politicizing which "wrong" theory should be entertained makes it harder to properly and thorougly research credible possiblities.

It feels like public health officals made a call about the origins of the virus based on political reasons, while presenting it as scientific. Even if they did not directly share that sentiment, there was very little pushback to correct that misunderstanding. It's very similar to the initial calls for masks to NOT be used by the public. It was later clarified that this guideline was an attempt to avoid medical supply shortages by hospitals, but it was presented as scientifically founded and based on an understanding of the virus. The public policy was based on supply chain considerations, and yet "World Health Organization and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have both said that only people with COVID-19 symptoms and those caring for them should wear masks". "Seriously people-STOP BUYING MASKS!" began a 29 February tweet from U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams." [1] Like most people, I assumed the recommendation came from some biology I didn't understand.

I imagine the officials that made this guidelines regret it. I can't say they did the best they could, because they intentionally directly opposed China's guidelies at the time. Quoting China's CDC head Dr. George Gao, "The big mistake in the U.S. and Europe, in my opinion, is that people aren't wearing masks. This virus is transmitted by droplets and close contact. Droplets play a very important role—you've got to wear a mask, because when you speak, there are always droplets coming out of your mouth. Many people have asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections. If they are wearing face masks, it can prevent droplets that carry the virus from escaping and infecting others." (27 MAR 2020) [2]

I think it's important to recognize that the anti-science sentiment existed long before covid-19 and has only incrased. A major problem is that public officials allow science to be politicized. These mistake during covid-19 directly lead to amplifying the anti-mask and anti-vaccine sentiment. People that entertained the lab leak hypothesis were intially put into the same group as the anti-mask and anti-vaccine crowd. Those initial impressiosn are very hard to erase. Public sentiment on who is trustworthy is unpredictable. People will always come to conclusions based on incomplete information. There needs to be stronger push by public health officials to share uncomfortable truths with the public earlier and demonstrate that science is above politics.

1. https://www.science.org/content/article/would-everyone-weari... (28 MAR 2020)

2. https://www.science.org/content/article/not-wearing-masks-pr...

For what seems to be a scientific source, evidence cited includes:

"Polls show that most of the American public, regardless of their political leanings, believes the virus came from a laboratory, and, in 25 of 26 countries surveyed, more people think the virus came from a lab rather than nature."

The very presence of such a quote confirms to me this is "opinion" not science.

That's your take away?

I think the point is that all the people in the world and all the various information they have received leads them to believe that a laboratory studying this very virus was responsible for its release.

You chose to side with those that would blind themselves to any information that doesn't conform to a narrative

Not at all. The article is saying, with a 'shortfall' of evidence, he thinks we should consider both possible sources, man made and from the wild.

That is perfectly reasonable to me.

We don't have enough information and it's pretty bad a lot of professional public spokespeople are saying we are sure. That's the narrative.

But, why does public opinion even factor in this argument? Like many people here I have closely followed a lot of the information published. I certainly feel I am much more informed about this than my friends. But, my opinion on the source does not count for shit if professional scientists say they don't know. This guy is a professional.

The author is presumably a lady (her name is Alina) and the top of the article also says "Opinion".

But my comment also questions why she thinks it matters what the public believes.

I think the fact that with SARS2 unlike the original SARS and MERS which were circulating in animal populations only spilled over once in a single location counts as proof. You see when a wild virus that has been circulating within an intermediate host species, you get multiple independent outbreaks over a large geographic area with different mutations, additionally each of these outbreaks leave a trail of mutations as the virus adapts to humans. These mutations have been used to track down and find the intermediate host within months for both SARS -> civets and MERS -> Camels. They also had multiple outbreaks across many regions that were genetically distinct(but related).

BUT! With SARS2 we seem to be missing the following:

- Rapid mutations in the starting months of the outbreak(SARS2 displayed very little if any major mutations in the starting months as it was already pre-adapted towards humans).

- Multiple spillovers over time each with a different variant of the animal virus, something that happened with SARS, MERS, Nipah virus, Ebola which had multiple spillovers all independent from each other.

- Identification of intermediate host species. For SARS they found the virus that infected patient zero within months, MERS found the virus in camels. For SARS2 nothing! And this is after 3+ years of looking. And while it's true China won't allow scientists to look in China, the habitat of the Horseshoe bat overlaps with Laos and other South East asian countries and if it was present in civets you'd think they would find a civet with an ancestor of the early strains of the virus in Laos.

So even throwing out circumstantial evidence like deleting databases in September of 2019, the way SARS2 outbreak occurred does not fit evolutionary theory.

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