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Comment by kzar | Hacker News Reader

I think the article missed the main cause, Visa isn't very good so people don't want it.

I'd be wary of proclaiming this as "the beginning of the end", as the article title seems to imply.

There were two things wrong with Vista: 1) issues with 3rd party software & drivers, and 2) steep hardware requirements. The first was due to enhancements to user accounts & security, and is largely fixed today.

Anyway, people aren't going to be using Windows XP for the next 5 years, so they'll switch en masse to Windows 7 or to OS X. Apple still isn't competing at the lower price points, so unless Windows 7 is just really bad, I think we'll see the numbers pick back up when Win7 comes out.

The real possible "beginning of the end" problem is the popularity of $300 netbooks, and Microsoft only getting $30 on these versus $70 for a more "traditional" PC.

If this trend continues to accelerate, the revenue Microsoft gets per PC will steadily decline and likely offset the increase in revenue from increased volume.

Even with that perception of Vista (whether true or not), The problem is deeper. Microsoft is on a philosophical decline; they don't matter as much.

And Paul predicted this a while back.

Desktops would be replaced with a smaller web-focused devices. [1] Grandmas will be left using Windows. [2] Microsoft is declining in importance. [1] [2] [3]

[1]http://www.paulgraham.com/road.html

[2]http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html

[3]http://www.paulgraham.com/mac.html

They much prefer the alternatives: Mastercard, Discover, and American Express.

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