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Comment by moistly | Hacker News Reader

WRT ICE vehicles no longer being manufactured: ain’t happening. Purchasing or licensing an ICE vehicle may become a reality in some (wealthy) countries. It is not happening in third-world countries, eg. Mexico. Simple fact is that the utilities infrastructure is not there.

Walking through any working-class neighbourhood shows it, even in relatively modern cities like Puerto Vallarta, let alone looking at any of the small towns scattered across the nation. As’ anyone living in a small town along the popular Costa Alegre: brown-outs and black-outs are common. There is no capacity whatsoever to start hooking up charging stations for the population.

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You can run the numbers to estimate the cost of solar panels needed to run an electric car in some place like Puerto Vallarta.

Assume the car drives 12500 miles a year. Likely less in Puerto Vallarta unless it's used as a cab. But whatever.

Typical EV's get 3.5 to 4 miles per kwh. Call it 3.75 miles/kwh.

So need 12500/3.75 => 3333 kwh/year.

One Watt of solar produces about 2kwh/year.

So need 3333 kwh / 2kwh/Watt => 1666 Watts

Assume Mexico cost for an array is $2/Watt.

Cost is 1666 Watts X $2/Watt => $3333

That's about a 1/10 to 1/20th the cost of a new EV.

I’m not sure what your point is. Working lower-class Mexicans can’t afford a new vehicle, much less a bunch of solar panels as well. They are not going to transition to EVs within your lifetime.

Well if they can't afford a new gasoline powered one it's not a defect of electric vehicles that they can't afford one of those either. But that said the total cost of ownership of an EV is less. Which is actually important for lower income people.

Again, what is your point? My claim is that ICE vehicles will continue to be used for many decades in countries with large impoverished populations, because the electrical infrastructure will not support EVs. They don’t even have reliable electricity for their homes; they are not going to be able to charge their vehicles. Further, poor citizens in poor countries can’t even afford to keep their old, used vehicles in good repair, let alone purchase expensive new vehicles.

No idea what counterpoint you’re trying to make. Whatever it is, it certainly isn’t applicable to the lives of people living in poor third-world communities.

One of the problems with the power grid in third would communities is the need to constantly import coal, oil, and gas to run the power plants. And constantly import oil to run vehicles as well. So it's not like they aren't spending money already. And solar + electrified transport is cheaper then what they have now.

Electric cars are fundamentally better because developing country could just use some of the excise tax they charge on cars to buy solar panels. And the power from solar isn't subject to price shocks and interruptions like oil and gas are.

It is dead obvious that you have never travelled. The problem with the power grid is that it barely exists. The problem is that the final mile is a fucked-up mess of barely-functioning hacks. The problem is that it is utterly unreliable. The problem is that there isn’t even capacity for everyone in the neighbourhood to run all their kettles simultaneously, so good fucking luck plugging in cars. You are utterly clueless about conditions on the ground. Good day, I’m done trying to get you to understand what it’s like in rural/small town/poor neighbourhoods in poor countries.

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