Will the war in Ukraine spell the end of Transnistria? | Hacker News Reader

Will the war in Ukraine spell the end of Transnistria?

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11 pointsrntn7 comments

I suspect the munitions are Russia's motive here. The are apparently a lot more than 20,000 tons is only 4000 pallets of Ammo and Russia was firing off 2000 pallets/day in the fall(but have reduced greatly of late). I am unable to find any reputable assessment of what is stored there. That said, Ukraine will not stand idly by if Russia goes after this depot, apart from their foot in the door.

Russia could not possibly "go after" this depot. It's simply an impossible task.

There are no airports in Transnistria, and even if there were, it would be impossible to land there. Even ignoring UA and RO air defences, all of Transnistria is within UA artillery range.

Road transport is obviously impossible without Russia first capturing Odessa, which is clearly not going to happen.

Sea? Any watercraft would be destroyed by anti-ship missiles before getting anywhere close, or get shredded by UA artillery while going up the Dnister.

Yes, there are so many ways Ukraine could interdict any Russian venture. It is well served by rail, but lines can be cut.

I don't think it's meaningful to even speak of interdiction, Russia is as likely to successfully access ammunition depots in Transnistria as they're in Lviv.

Ukraine on the other hand could crush resistance in Transnistria within a day or two, there's simply nowhere to hide from artillery fire on that narrow stretch of land.

Of course, there's no point in doing that. There's nothing worth capturing in Transnistria, a power plant and a bunch of poorly stored ammunition that's not going to be in usable condition.

Ukraine will stand idly, because Ukrainian aggression against the part of Moldova will cause troubles for Ukraine with EU and NATO. The only solution I see is to promise something valuable for Moldova to take the risk. IMHO, Ukraine can promise Königsberg for Moldova in exchange for Transnistria. Seaports on two seas can make Moldova a rich country.

I don't know, do you think Czechs will give Koenigsberg to Ukraine? Maybe Ukraine could trade if for Zakarpatie.

RF will happily trade Transnistria for Zakarpatie when Ukraine will be crushed.

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