Comment by btheshoe | Hacker News Reader

Comment by btheshoe | Hacker News Reader

I think this makes assumptions about the demand for software engineers that seem unproven. Law salaries are bimodal because the demand for lawyers is limited, so there's only so many big law firms that can exist. In the near future, at least, it seems like demand for software engineers far outstrips supply and I think this will stay true in the long run because the market for software engineers is just different from the market for lawyers, in that software engineers can work on a multitude of different industries (faang covers personal devices, social media, entertainment, e-commerce, search, and more).

I think the real concern is for when the rate of new startups decreases, because I view startups as basically the tech industry's way for searching for ways to increase the overall size of the pie, and startups slowing down means demand for software engineers will start to stagnate.

> it seems like demand for software engineers far outstrips supply

Definitely not the case when layoff right now is in full force. Also this doesn't necessarily indicate high salary anyway. There is a huge demand for fruit picker, but due to the nature of economy and margin of business, the salary will stay deflated thus the shortage persists. In a high interests, no free money environment, will software firms still able to demonstrate ability to generate return for investors? That would the ultimate key for whether the high salary is going to sustain or disappear.

Regardless, I think this article has a point. We might be as well observing the end of the golden era for software engineers. LLM is a long-term salary oppressor, but in short term, simple dynamics of economy would test the market sufficiently.

doomer take but tbh i respect it. but the central thesis of the tech industry is that it allows for products to be created with very low marginal cost which facilitates the high returns and if that thesis turns out to no longer be true then i would say that the identity of the tech industry has irrevocably changed.

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