Ask HN: What do you think about Peter Zeihan's Geopolitical Analysis?
- Most of the developed world save notable exceptions like the USA (in USA the Boomers are retiring but the Millenials will take over) is aging at an accelerated pace as a result of the decrease on the birth rates. In Europe, Germany which is currently like the 3rd or 4th economy worldwide, will cease to be so powerful because of their demographics alone. In addition to that, much Germany's industry was based on cheap gas from Russia which is no longer an option, and raw materials from Russia and China which also will no longer be an option.
- China's demographics are even worse, as a result of their one child policy, and their population is aging at a much faster pace. Average birthrate are like 0.8 and theres many more men than women which means that in 10 years there will no be China as we know it anymore. Add to that the results of Zero Covid policy which destroyed their economy, and now since they don't have herd immunity a full blown covid meltdown, the Evergrande meltdown (which I didn't hear him mention, that's my own addition) and some other factors and things don't look good for China.
- 90% of rare earth materials come from China and Russia, mostly China, and most of the manufacturing comes from China and Germany, so that would mean the age of abundance where we have everything, is gone (or will be soon).
- Russia's population is also aging dramatically, and since Russia is basically and basically impossible to defend, that's the main reason why Putin invaded Ukraine, but then he would have to invade Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Georgia, Azerbajan, Uzbekhistan, and a long list of other countries to feel secure. And they had to do it now because in a few years they won't have the amount of 20 year olds to wage a war.
- Russia is the main exporter of fertilizer and potash worlwide, so this year and into next year there will be famine in many parts of the world because there will not be enough fertilizer for everyone.The USA will be fine because it produces most of the inputs to grow food. China will not be fine because it imports most of the imports to grow food.
- 80% of neon production is gone since the first phase is done in Russia and the second phase is done in Ukraine. Neon is used for lasers in semiconductor industry. The other 20% comes from China...
I'm sure I'm missing lots of points to connect, but I think there's enough for now. What do you think of all of this? Do you have any other insights about the world to make?
- Russia's ships can't get insurance, so they can't transport oil and other exports. Russia kind of provides state insurance and so ships with oil go to Portugal where then China moves them to some rented supertankers and go the long route bordering the continent to China, but those supertankers are very vulnerable to pirates or any rogue state just taking them by force. Also there's not storage capacity so if the ships start queing it blocks the flow. Production cannot be stopped, specially since in cold weather if it stops moving oil converts into a gel and breaks all the machinery which took 30 years to reproduce last time that happened. So if we take 4 million barrels a day out, we can get to 180 dollars a barrel.