I agree there is a normal distribution, however, I disagree about the width of the distribution. The variance is much smaller than you think
In my experience at places like AWS and other FAANG my observation is it’s at a rate of about 1:300 engineers. In other top employers it’s closer to 1:500. In startups it’s probably in the 1:800 range. In your average tech company probably around 1:1000, and in hideous soul crushing companies literally zero.
And often even when you look at the legends, there is a large chance they would not succeed in a standard office. For instance Wozniak begged HP to put him on the computer team, they wouldn't do it. Despite the fact that in his off time he was achieving more than the team they had assembled.
Carmack dropped out of college. He would be ignored by HR today. We know what he is capable of - he's a legend. And yet in his Meta keynotes he continually talks about working on a problem one day a week and by the next week the environment that he left it was worse than before he improved it. Quest was getting worse faster than he could fix it.
How many 10x developers are put in 0.1x environments and just look normal?
"rare" i agree with. that's a far cry from being a myth or not existing. "The 10x programmer doesn't exist", i think is what you said - don't move the goal posts.
they are clearly somewhat rare, how rare is a pointless argument. but they exist and i'm glad you have acquiesced to that fact. i hope you have the privilege of working with one someday.
>I agree there is a normal distribution
Pick a lane.