See my comment about the moon ladder. Progress is nice, and I’m not saying there hasn’t been progress. But there is no indication that the methods of today that work to make taxi cabs in SF drivable will lead to a general-case self driving machine as promised for so many years.

The fact that the two cases that work best have a similar climate to the 2007 DUC really highlights the reality that these methods haven’t been proven to scale generally. The industry is still chasing that 2007 success, and it’s not surprising that over 15 years they’ve improved that. But do I need to link to all the promises from CEOs about where they thought we’d be today? Those predictions were based on the idea that the DUC prototypes would be more generally applicable. The successes since then have shown we can make the experience better, but don’t show we can solve autonomous driving in the general case.