- at current traffic levels, accidents are rare
- but fatality rates are high (20% of helicopter accidents)
- the commercial carriers have much better accident statistics than general aviation
- commuter and on-demand flights are much worse than commercial scheduled flights
- rather more than half of all accidents have a root incident near an airport - taxi-ing, departure, initial climb, approach, landing.
My conclusion is that mass adoption of flying cars (as in, millions of people piloting small aircraft with varying levels of maintenance, safety inspections, training, and traffic control) would be a terrifyingly foreseeable disaster.
On the other hand, I hold out real hope for fully autonomous vehicles being potentially safer than a distracted teenager on the road.
I might feel like intervening, 1 out of 10 times at this point. I might not be the typical driver, but I definitely feel like its ready for early adopters now.
However, even though I'm a big fan, I don't see how these can easily transition to "mass consumption", because as we get into the uncanny valley where the auto drive is good enough to take over, the masses are going to completely check out of their responsibility to be a good backup driver.
So I feel like we are going to be stuck in the current space for a long time, maybe 10 years. Until you Auto Drive is so good, you can ride one without getting a drivers license.