Gautam Adani is a Gujarati impex trader who won the lottery when his pony won the parliamentary race.
I would argue both families are extremely different, even if they seem culturally similar on the outside. That being said, I would say there are parallels to Gautam Adani and Dhirubhai Ambani (Mukesh's father, for those ootl).
I dont like the idea of 'This seems fishy so let's bet against it'. If something feels fishy stay away from it as much as possible. Michael Burry doesn't happen every day.
What do you mean? I struggle to understand how betting against a company is "doing business" with them, it seems even less like "doing business" than having no relationship at all. You are actively signaling you expect them to fail.
If the company completely disappears tomorrow, your short will be profitable.
Unless you have expertise that it's not that simple? Or a source saying otherwise? (Not an attempt to be snide, but an honest opening for counter evidence, I'm not an expert in this).
See https://www.reuters.com/article/muddy-waters-asia-short-sell...
What you are betting on in a short position is for the company to continue to exist, but at a lower valuation.
1) The Ambanis didn’t exist when the Ambanis were rising. This is similar to how everyone wants to be the next Amazon, ignoring the little fact that unlike when Amazon was growing, there already is an Amazon now.
2) The Ambanis were able to ride a wave of massive growth post liberalization to cover up their illegal dealings and essentially become legitimate. It’s not clear that there is any such wave of massive growth available to the Adanis to cover up their illegal dealings.
3) The Ambanis raised money illegally almost entirely locally, which meant they avoided international scrutiny, and they did so at a time when the Indian financial agencies were simply not mature enough. The Adanis will be raising foreign funds which increases scrutiny, but also Indian regulatory agencies are far more mature at this point.
4) The Ambanis valuation did collapse dramatically for a significant period of time. The difference is that the business has been split between the 2 brothers and one went to almost 0, while the other grew slightly. Their combined wealth, simulating the market cap of the company, has declined drastically from its peak level.