Debt-to-GDP ratios and the cost of servicing existing debt together mean that there are difficult budgeting decisions on the horizon for many western governments. Academic R&D just doesn't have the constituency needed to save it from cuts.

I will be a bit astounded if NSF/NIH don't take nominal cuts during the debt ceiling negotiations, and they certainly won't get budget increases to keep up with inflation. Even defense spending, a massive sacred cow, might take a cut. There is just no way that base closures happen without DARPA et al. also taking it on the chin.

There may be one-time infusions into critical sectors here and there (CHIPS, probably energy, etc) and the STEM fields may benefit from a systematic defunding of humanities departments in certain states, but it's not enough to make up for secular headwinds.

The only saving grace for budgets might be if universities could create and capture the value that their R&D spend generates. But most research doesn't provide any value to society, and for the research that does capturing that value is often harder than creating the value in the first place. And even in that case, the change in management culture and workforce dynamics mean that the "relaxed tenured professor" is quickly going extinct.

The only thing academic hustle will get you in the 2030s and 2040s is a relatively low-paying job that requires even more hustle.