I don't think it's 1 or 2 at all. I know that you probably don't want to hear this right now, but there's just not nearly as many companies looking for candidates right now as compared to a year ago. There are many companies who are actively laying people off right now. Public companies are doing it, whether they need to or not. Even more so, startups and any other yet-to-be-profitable companies are not sure when they will be able to raise capital again, so they are tightening their belts to survive as long as possible. If the market doesn't change, some will die.

Meanwhile, there's many companies in a second boat. Companies that are doing fine but are worried about choppy waters ahead. Perhaps they are hiring for key roles or to fill spots of people who leave. But on the whole, they want to protect what they have and don't see this as the time to push for major growth.

The good news is that there is definitely a third boat. Companies that are raising money because they have an outstanding product or idea. Companies that raised large amounts of money before things started going sour. And of course, profitable companies with sound businesses that see opportunities to grow further. It seems to me like there are still a significant number of companies in this third boat, so I wouldn't be too worried yet. That said, if you are swimming around in the ocean right now, the water is definitely getting cold. I'm not saying to get on any boat that comes around, but you probably don't want to wait around for a 100ft yacht.