Trans-identifying males have the same patterns of criminality as other males. The ones in prison are even more likely to have been locked up for sex crimes, when compared to other men in prison.
https://aninjusticemag.com/are-50-of-trans-women-in-prison-s...
Largely the point being that this sample would only include prisoners with serious long punishment crimes, like sex crimes. It’s hardly a random sample.
Probability of sex crime given you’re in prison for a serious crime is not a reliable indicator of baseline probability of a sex crime.
Also see this: https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-rorschach-test/
It explains how additional data including from later years, and from New Zealand, supports the observation that these men are more likely to be in prison for sex crimes than men in general, and much, much more likely than actual women.