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> Other companies were willing to hire lots of developers because the ROI on devs was good compared to low inflation and low interest rates

Was the ROI good though? Did any of these companies seem to deliver new products or features faster? Do their financials suggest that these devs somehow improved operational efficiency (e.g. improved gross margins)?

Or was it just that they hired because they could afford to?

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I think it was more of a tragedy of the commons where some companies started aggressively hiring, and other companies followed suit to avoid losing access to talent. The pandemic was a huge societal event, but nothing indicated it was going to be the new normal and CEOs who grew headcount expecting it to go on indefinitely made a huge, and arguably an easily avoidable, misstep.

Most orgs claim that they need X% more money to serve X% more users, and they use that money to hire X% more devs. Since the users and money are both there, they get it in the short term, and nobody looks at the big picture until money tightens up

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