This is the interesting thing about the current situation. A tinfoil hat seems appropriate regardless of the direction you point your tinfoilery.

I think the truth is far more likely to involve the government keeping secrets than aliens, but in both cases, something is up.

The implication that "reasonable people" deny the existence of conspiracies altogether is incorrect. Obviously conspiracies exist, it's just a matter of belief versus proof, and probability.

Reasonable people are willing to accept the likelihood that these are Chinese spy balloons or other mundane (not extraterrestrial) objects, and even that the government is pulling some kind of bullshit act with it in the media for the sake of politics or optics. It isn't the case that any conspiracy afoot is equally as likely as aliens. It isn't going to be aliens.