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flappyeagle

Your managers know nothing. There are 3 things you can do if you are paranoid about being laid off.

- work on something that’s central to the business

- ship software frequently, such that git blame makes it obvious

- form a relationship with your manager and their manager

Everything else is out of your control.

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I'd even go as far as saying the relationship building (#3) to be on top of that list. The first two are important but the last is paramount. Infact the last will even get you more resources for #1 and better opportunities for #2.

Relationship building is certainly useful, but how useful depends on context: in the recent layoffs at my company, the only person who might have been able to influence whether I was cut or not was four levels above me on the org chart. My manager, my manager's manager, and my manager's manager's manager were not even aware that layoffs were coming until after decisions had been made.

For various reasons I don't think measures of my own performance would have made any difference, so I conclude that my project, however non-central to the company's business, was central enough.

> Relationship building is certainly useful, but how useful depends on context: in the recent layoffs at my company, the only person who might have been able to influence whether I was cut or not was four levels above me on the org chart. My manager, my manager's manager, and my manager's manager's manager were not even aware that layoffs were coming until after decisions had been made.

Aye. There is, in large companies, hidden away in a dark room far from most operations, an accounting department. And in that dept. there is an accountant, maybe an CPA or MBA, whose job it is to cut people. They're kept isolated so they have no connections to teams or staff -- no feelings, just numbers.

Your boss and boss's boss may love you, but that accountant is there to make decisions without feelings. And when the decision is made, your boss may not know 'till the day of. Hell, their boss might not know.

Actually this job isn't the accountants. The accountants job is to give the CFO a "number". The CFO then gives this number to the different vps with an edict "cut said numbers from your org in x weeks". VPs typically have a (long running) process of building up lists for a rainy day such as this - eg, bottom performers (this usually includes those have given managers the stinkeye), projects without good numbers, some randomness, those with high comp to level ratios etc.

Oh and often one of the factors the "accountants" have to consider is a guidance that comes after the CFO has lunches with their wall st buddies!

I'd say the exact opposite applies to layoffs. Most of the people who got surprised by them here were very popular with others. Relationships might matter more in peaceful times, though.

It looks like the main advantage of doing large scale layoffs is that it allows you to fire popular people who have contributed a lot and done nothing wrong, only committing the crime of being overpaid or being less valuable in the current market situation.

Someone who is the opposite - an asshole who gets shit done, has high odds of being fired-replaced during peace time, but may make the cut during a layoff.

Popular with others is a bit different than popular with your manager's managers, which is what the OP suggested. But one good way to get noticed up the management chain is a combination of high impact deliverables and self promotion so getting shit done is always a great recommendation.

> Your managers know nothing. There are 3 things you can do if you are paranoid about being laid off.

Work at a small company. My manager was the CTO for 7+ years, it was great. It was quite a shock moving to a big company where my manager really doesn't have any more information than I do.

The problem with small companies is that sometimes, instead of (or in addition to) layoffs, the whole company just go kaput. There was more transparency that the end is near, but it might not have helped.

The same is also true of small teams inside large companies. It's a fractal of transparencies.

Smaller companies also are exempt from some laws that protect employees. e.g. the WARN act (requiring 60 day notice of layoffs) doesn't kick in until you have 75 employees. I've been involved in a company that made sure not to cross that line because it was always teetering on the brink, and that kind of requirement would have been catastrophic.

- keep your resume up to date and maintain a list of contacts (for referrals) just in case. It's important to realize that you can do everything right at your company for decades and some invisible hand can still put you on a layoffs list. The only thing you can really do is be prepared for that eventuality.

I need to stop squashing my commits

Your manager may not know if or when but they might have been asked to make a short list along with all other managers. Everyone has to do it so which teams isn't leaked early.

Also be careful about asking. What if they tell you the truth? You might learn things you can never unlearn. What do you think it's like knowing who the sacrificial lamb is going to be for the next round of layoffs? Someone who's married with young kids at home? It sucks.

As much as I hate to admit it, being friends with the right people can get you places.

completely untrue, humans are naturally objective and the hardest, most capable and morally just people always rise to the top to make the best of the decisions for rest of us

Careful, the sharp edges of your brittle smile are cutting me from here.

#4 - if you are in an environment that’s causing layoff paranoia, look for another job.

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