Taliban fighters are sick of the 9 to 5 working desk jobs to run Afghanistan
businessinsider.com
businessinsider.com
I was a helicopter pilot, and we all quickly learn that we spend about 5% of our time flying and 95% of our time doing everything else to keep the aircraft and crews capable of flying. We're very curious to see exactly how long the Taliban will be able to keep all those helicopters that we left in Afghanistan in working condition.
I don't think anyone expected them to keep Black Hawks in the air very long, not without spare parts...unless the Chinese can come up with something? Frankly, I'm amazed Iran has kept their F-14s in the air for so long, but they at least have a culture of desk work and logistics.
We've produced and exported a lot more Hawks (of various flavors) than F-14s, so I imagine that the availability of parts will be much better for them, but they clearly have no ability to produce parts domestically like Iran might have done.
I expect that these helicopters will probably be used mainly for showmanship, and later static displays, as a symbol of strength, like Afghan warlords kept old and no-longer-functional Stinger missile launchers on-hand for many years as status symbols.
1. The US military was basically left to do all of the above by itself, with only token commitment from other US government agencies and NATO partners. As a military we are pretty good at fighting, less good at building up another country's military force, and pretty bad at doing all the non-military stuff. We tried, and there was a whole cultural revolution within the Army between about 2005-2012 to get better at this, but we have to balance that with still being able to fight head-to-head against a peer military in large-scale combat.
2. The whole idea of "nation building" may just not be realistic, at least not on any timeline that we'd find acceptable. So the "alternative model" is probably putting up alternative goalposts. I think that's where we've effectively landed. Afghanistan isn't what we hoped it would be, but we can still play whack-a-mole with any Al-Qaeda (and now Islamic State) pockets that gather there to stage attacks on our interests, which is maybe what we should have limited ourselves to doing from the start.
An entire generation of fighters grew up in an environment where the US had drones buzzing overhead all the time and US bullets kept ending up in their family members heads. Their parents grew up fighting the soviets. They never wanted to be a western democracy, they just want to be left alone, and they should have been given that dignity.
If the people of a country don't want to stop being an oppressive religious regime, why would they have rallied behind a godless democracy?
As a sibling comment said, there was no plausible path to success. It was just a tremendous waste of time and resources, many of which just ended up in terrorist hands.
[1] To get a real sense of just how mundane this can be, skim the table of contents for this Army Regulation which is like the bible or touchstone for every officer in command of a unit: https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/ARN32931-AR_600...
As far as the Taliban go, no one is concerned that in their current state they will harbor al-qaeda or pose a risk to the west. Their leadership and al-qaeda in Afghanistan was eliminated. What you have now is people who believe in the Taliban's ideals beliefs who continued the old organization and it's rule over the country.
Vietnam I get calling a failure but Afghanistan is a stretch. The US was never interested in colonizing them and eradicating the Taliban entirely would require colonization and transforming their culture and ways so they can accept western ways and ideals which even if the US was willing to do, the american people don't have the stomach for the cruelty involved in such an affair.
Honestly, if Americans were cruel and craved violence does anyone doubt the taliban along with millions of civillians could be wiped out cleanly and permanently? Historically, that is what happens in war and even in current times you can see worse cruelty in war.
Is it really defeat when you pull out because you don't want to hurt your enemy even more than you already have?
On (1), sure, I think we can declare success.
On (2), yes, we had full control within months (weeks?) of invading the country, but that was only true, at best, as long as we physically occupied every part of the country, and that wasn't the plan. The Taliban is back in power and arguably stronger than they were before we dislodged them and spent so many resources trying to sustainably replace them with someone else. Now, I agree that maybe we can make an argument that it's not the same Taliban anymore, and maybe this one wouldn't accept the presence of something like Al-Qaeda again. Indeed, we've actually worked with them to fight pockets of the Islamic State already. But this remains to be seen, and is still a pretty disappointing outcome if not a "failure."
But the war ended in like 2002. The Taliban and America were not at war for 20 years. Remnants of a defeated enemy were causing problems and engaging guerilla style attacks from hiding after being evicted from power.
A war was declared against Afghanistan and the US controlled the land and government and dismantled the people in power and at the very least put them in a place where they cannot govern any aspect of the country.
What failed was a mission objective part of the greater "war on terror" not the war against afghanistan.
Anyway, saying that the war ended and the enemy was defeated in 2002 seems like saying that a doctor saved a patient's life, but only as long as the patient remains in the ICU hooked up to life support machines.
Unlike "the war on terrorism" normal wars like the one against iraq and afghanistan involves two or more countries and militaries. One side has to be removed from power and control or accept defeat in order for the other side to claim victory. In both Iraq and Afghanistan, the US defeated and disbanded their militaries. At that point the US had victory. There was no obligation to stay there, historically it isn't uncommon for the victor to simply leave after acheiving victory. We stayed because of goals that were bigger than the war against those countries.
The Taliban in 2001 was the legitimate government of afghanistan against which the war was declared. Victory can only be measured relative to the specifics of the declaration of war.
Next they'll be at the cereal aisle, baffled by all the options, and wishing they could return to the theatre of war...
Oh wait, we can't be having men working side-by-side with women. NVM.