I, Cringely: Azure Blues

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14 points·notdarkyet··5 comments

It is all about political will. Germany has shown the world that it is possible. And it is made possible via a so-called feed-in tariff scheme. 14% of Germany's energy originates from renewable energy sources (mainly wind power). And Germany will reach 20% by 2013 and will reach 30% by 2030. Germany is now the largest producer of PV panels and among the largest producers of wind turbines. Gemany's alternative energy plan created a huge industry. So, less dependency on foreign energy, less CO2 emission and the creation of a lot of jobs. Sounds to me like a winning strategy. See: http://www.hermannscheer.de/en/index.php?option=com_content&... and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany

Anyone know if his analysis of solar panel economies is at all plausible?

A lot of debate in the comments on this article: http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20081030_0055...

I'd say no. The cost of the silicon wafers in terms of $ and energy to produce has remained about the same. Refinements in process that make it a little cheaper have been offset by higher energy costs. What Moore's law has done is make it possible to fit more and more transistors in the same space, not make the space cheaper.

I'm calling bull on this one. Photo-voltaic solar is still ruinously expensive and it will require more than incremental innovation to change this.

I'd love to see a graph similar to this: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a4/PVeff(rev110707)d.png but for PV cost per Watt. Anyone have a link?

This report indicates solar prices of $0.15-0.10/kWh by 2010: http://www.photonconsulting.com/the_true_cost_of_solar_power...

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