French workers protest plan to increase retirement age
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France's system has the working population pay for the pension on the retirees, as a social security tax. With the retirement age around 62-65, with the lifespan increasing, and with the Baby Boomers retiring, it isn't a sustainable system.
Every president, be they socialist or liberal, have attempted to tackle the issue, only to get country-paralyzing backlash. People will nitpick the details of whatever current plan proposes, but the fundamental problem remains.
christine lagarde pushed for blocking wage rise in the EU, european commission non elected leaders are pushing for it too. salaries for blue collar in france are becoming those of much poorer countries and in a globalised world where most of the goods are made in countries where salaries are rising as well as inflation, blocking our wages is only sending us to the third world .
it is nothing else than a betrayal at the highest level of the state
But then everybody's salary stagnating hasn't made the cost of goods stagnate. There's no such simple and direct link between the two.
Just throwing this out here, but in a globalized world, by what mechanism would one expect Europeans and Americans will be able to enjoy a greater standard of living than people in, say, Asia?
Are they somehow smarter? More productive? In control of more natural resources? If not, why would you expect that the first-third world gap to not continue to normalize?
When I was in morocco 10 years ago one of the buckles for my motorcycle pants suspenders broke. I was able to get a local leather worker to create a pattern from the broken piece, craft the replacement, and integrate it into my suspenders overnight for under 5 USD. This was arranged by the hotel I was staying at, and wasn’t some special inside knowledge on my part.
The mass manufactured replacement were more than 10x that cost, and made of lower quality materials.
Morocco is not a rich country, but a lot of the world is even less wealthy.
The world standard of living should be equalized globally but it should be the present first world standard, not the present third world standard.
This is certainly possible given increasing world productive capacities.
Yes. Capital let's you be more productive. Rest of the world is building up capital to increase productivity, but is also increasing demand. Resource limits are blips on the market.
I mean… yeah. That's not really related to the thread's topic, though.
> why would you expect that the first-third world gap to not continue to normalize?
I don't think that's the criticism. "Blocking our wages" probably isn't increasing the wealth of the people in Cold War non-aligned countries: is the money going to them, somehow? The direct effect is that employers (= the people who would be paying the extra wages) don't have to spend as much money paying their employees. What knock-on effects would lead to that improving things for people?
One of the biggest differences is functioning institutions. As bad as some first world governments can seem from our perspective, they’re way better than the kleptocrats and warlords who rule some parts of the world. And yeah, when you have functioning institutions, you do end up with smarter and more productive populations because children can go to school instead of slaving away in the cobalt mines.
If the third world raises to the first world standards, then great. If that process involves first world standards falling to meet third world ones in the middle at the cost of first-world middle class, then there is a big problem. See where Trump and Sanders got most of their votes and you will start to see a pattern here.
That's why.
No, for equivalent 'net money on your wallet after tax' a company pay more tax for employees than for company owner.
Without detailling too much (and by choosing an 'arbitrary but realistic situation') the are two ways of getting money from your company to your personal bank account :
- a specialy taxed "company owner" salary (you can make simulation here : https://mon-entreprise.urssaf.fr/simulateurs/eurl , yes I choose a specific company category, but it's a common one, you can compare with a the 'standard' employee tax numbers : https://entreprise.pole-emploi.fr/cout-salarie/ ) which give you benefit from the social security system and which cost a bit less (for a standard company owner range of pay) than an employee salary.
- A 'company profit share' at the end of each year. You 'decide' how much you company profit was this year and that you want to give to owner, you pay a "less important tax than on salaries" give it to the owner, and then they pay their personnal income tax on it.
The optimisation game is to ensure yourself a sufficient salary to have a good social protection (and other perk like being abble to rent/buy/loan money easily) but also benefit from company income share wich is less taxed.
I dont even talk about legal trick to avoid parts of the company income tax, wich is way more complex to handle than a salary.
And funneling even more money into it like you want to isn't an option, the GDP proportion dedicated to retirement increased a lot already.
You've seen the low salary but you didn't understand the cause of that, the cause of that is the money is being funneled to the retirement system.
The COR (Conseil d'orientation des retraites) has 4 working scenarios and only a single one of them has the retirement system going temporarily into the negatives. The situation is not alarming at all. In addition, there are a lot of solutions that have been on the table to help the retirement system do even better and allow people to retire earlier (for example paying women the same as men: the salary resulting increase will mechanically make more money go towards contributing to retirement funds).
If the GDP portion dedicated to the elderly is maintained at around 14% the system has nothing to worry about, the goal of Macron's reform is to lower this number because he prefers to use public money to fund private companies that are already making profits (through tax mechanism such as the CICE or the CIR for example).
Also, low salaries actually means less money "funneled to the retirement system", since this money is a percentage of salaries. Also, low retirements income means people still working have to financially support their parents. The elderly have to be supported one way or another. The question is whether you choose to do it collectively as a society, or go with the individualistic solution that won't work for everyone.
it states that in 10 years there will be 20 billion deficit , that doesn’t include the raise of salaries to match inflation (it was removed in france in 1983) I ll wonder what would be the numbers if we do this simulation but pretty sure it will be positive.
Finally, 20 billions is nothing for france, we spend 40 billions on immigration so by your logic we should just stop pouring money and lock our country?
regardless of whether this is correct or not (difficult to predict the future, even the COR only has "scenarios" to talk about, but nobody knows really what will happen), the current system is unjust in many ways (some "special regimes" are super favorable, with little justification other than legacy, and some workers should have more favorable regimes because of their work conditions, yet they do not and the reform does nothing for these people).
>it is nothing else than a betrayal at the highest level of the state
Agreed. Still, this is less worse (I can't really say "better") than the first attempt at reform during Macron's first mandate: that first attempt included a contribution rate falling from 28% to 2.8% above 120Keuro/year (if I recall correctly), which was effectively a tax cut for the wealthy.. If anything above this threshold, the contribution rate should increase (i.e. be progressive instead of regressive). The main issue is that the whole thing is un-reformable because so many consistuencies have vested interest in the status quo.
The law defines the minimum legal wage. History has shown that increasing the minimum wage generally quickly end up increasing all salaries.
French government is not elected either. Like all European countries, by the way.
Which is just a socialized form of the previous social security system which had children or grandchildren look after their parents. Of course, the glaring difference is that social security schemes have motivated many millions, who otherwise might have, to not have children at all or an inadequate number and so contribute very little to nothing towards the future maintenance of the system while still cashing the checks once they retire. Of course this system does help the minority who can't have children for whatever reason but it does look like we've swapped looking after that cohort for a few decades for effectively no social security system for anyone once this ponzi scheme collapses.
This implied link between public pensions and demographic collapse paints a picture that social security was destined to fail because people wouldn't have children for the purpose of taking care of them in old age. The millennial generation, the largest American generational cohort, were born almost 50 years after the founding of social security. How does it make sense that public pensions motivated millennials to not have children, but not their parents?
Across all developed countries where you have demographic collapse you have societies where it becomes more and more expensive to raise children. The public pension system requires that the economy grows year after year and that becomes hard when your population shrinks. As to why the population is shrinking you have to look at why people aren't having children. And when you ask that question you get way more "I can't even afford to buy a house" and not "the government is going to take care of me when I'm old".
These systems are very sustainable, and the solution to the funding issues would be best served by indexing the cutoff for contributions to inflation.
As to birth rates, how do you expect people earning less than their parents to absorb the exponentially higher costs? My son was born over a decade ago. Thanks to a moderate, common complication, his birth cost $85k. His childcare at age 3 cost as much as our mortgage.
If caring for the elderly is made more valuable than say, slinging JavaScript, that’s where some of the labor will go.
Nope. At least not completely. Canada switched away from a pure pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system in the 1990s:
> Move towards a hybrid structure to take advantage of investment earnings on accumulated assets. Instead of a "pay-as-you-go" structure, the CPP is expected to be 20 per cent funded by 2014, such funding ratio to constantly increase thereafter towards 30 per cent by 2075 (that is, the CPP Reserve Fund will equal 30 per cent of the "liabilities" - or accrued pension obligations).
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Pension_Plan#1996_refor...
Asset returns are used to help fund benefits. A number of pension funds in Canada have moved away from a (pure) PAYG model:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensions_in_Canada#Canada_Mode...
The central issue is that physical goods and services need to be produced around the time that they're consumed, and at a given point in time, an economy has a fixed capacity to generate these goods and services.
If you have a non-producing population, and a producing population, then the only way for the non-producing population to consume a given quantity of goods and services is for the producing population to not consume those goods and services. Whether you call the reduction in consumption ability of the working population "taxes" or "investments" doesn't change this fundamental fact, except insofar as it alters certain behavioral incentives around deferring consumption and legal frameworks around property rights.
(This isn't 100% of the story, since you can "lay claim" to production of working people overseas via international investment, but is accurate in broad strokes.)
All investment systems suffer from this exact problem: returns aren't guaranteed. Even people with 401ks might experience this same issue if investment returns fall below the conventional wisdom rate of ~7% (or 4% real). But even if that rate holds up over the long-term, there's still to risk of a "lost decade" of no-returns or losses for and extended period, followed by a sudden market pop.
Pensions are hard.
Boomer generation globally accumulated a lot of claims and considered them their "wealth" but forgot to produce enough people that are going to be willing to put an effort to satisfy these claims.
Now is the time when boomers will want to use their savings and discover their error.
It works more like a Ponzi scheme.
Not necessarily. What matters here is whether production matches demand. If the proportion of people in the workforce declines, but their productivity increases by the same amount (which isn't far from being the case in Europe) you don't have a problem.
And even that is too simple. As the population ages, demand changes. It increases im certain domains (health) so productivity increase might not suffice.
...but then of course the productivity of older people declines too, together with their health (higher unemployment, more sick leaves), so there is a lower and lower ROI as you put these people in the workforce. And then making people work longer accelerates the health decline, and so increases the demand. Except those people die younger on average, lowering the demand.
So it's a supply and demand issue, but not quite a supply and demand of workers. It's a complicated economic problem. All of this is talked about in the French debate, which is a lot more subtle than the loud vociferations reported in the news make it out to be.
Instead, they built ever-decaying roads and rotting ticky-tacky boxes and left nothing durable for future generations. Hell, they even ripped out trains in cities across the country. (Seattle interurban among so many examples).
Disagree.
Counter-examples:
401k in the US
Second pillar in Switzerland.
The money comes from the people saving and investing their own money for their old age.
Shocker, I know.
For example, your 401k ability to pay for your retirement will depend on productivity gains , growth, saving, investments happen in the future. Those will look very different if you have 4 working age people for one non working person, vs 2 working age people for one non working one. In the extreme case, if nobody is working anymore when you retire, your 401k will likely worth almost nothing.
The problem in France is not how it s funded, but the fact that retirement incomes are way above the funding level. France, with Italy, are the only two OECD countries where retirees have a higher income that working people, which is insane. However, since retirees vote much more than other demographics, their too large income will not be touched.
Although I admit that there being other countries in the world does change the calculus a bit; it would be possible (albeit weird and unsustainable) for everyone in France to be retired, so long as say the Philippines was young and working and French retirees owned all the shares in Philippine companies.
Good For them?
They've been trying to change this forty years? So they were trying to change this back when it ipso facto was sustainable, since it's survived 'till now. How credible does that make the current effort.
Certainly, America has changed a bunch of supposedly "unsustainable" things into ... utter misery for the average person.
Do you have any argument that these two questions should be approached the same way?
The Touraine Law in 2014 raised the number of worked years from 36 to 43, which is a big deal. So it's not like nothing happened. Also there are good reasons to dispute the current proposal, it's not just nitpicking details, it will impact very negatively some people and perhaps there are other ways to fix the system.
that's right, and what's so surprising (to me) today is that the Touraine law got enacted without much protest, while what's happening today is taking the same terms for retirement and extending them to younger generations (i.e. those born between 1960 and 1973) is causing protests. The current proposed reform looks like a big deal, but the bigger deal happened in 2014 and was barely noticed (because the lawmakers were careful enough to put it far enough in the future...).
Though the problem is well known (at least for 40 years), No french governments has considered diversifying the source of the revenue funding the pension system. Actually its worse as the only capitalisation existing are in a process to be nationalised.
Moreover, this reform is purely the outcome of political game. Macron electorat is mainly the 'boomers' who fully beneficiated of th situation ( in fact their pension are impacted despite having higher wealth than the majority of the workers).
I personally would consider a reform only if there an effort requested for everyone.
But as usual they'll fight tooth and nail to keep their monopoly, as they like us to depend on them as much as possible.
a biased model that is financed by private pension funds and led by mckinsey… I have a very simple way to make enough funds to maintain current retirement age : increase our salaries. france income per capita is the same for the past 20 years, if you raise salaries it will raise how much money goes to pension funds. problem solved
This is wrong. We have an institute that has one mission. Evaluate its sustainibility, and it disagrees with you.
So it's why polls quite unanimously report that 70% of the population is opposed of this reform on a quite developer friendly axiom : "When it ain't broken don't try fix it!"
Bonus fun fact 1 : Even with the cherry picked scenario of our gov the system might be in slight imbalance starting 2027 while it's currently balanced. To put this in perspective 10 years ago the same organisation predicted a great imbalance for today.
Bonus fun fact 2 : The 70% rejection poll is an average. One of the only group that is less rejecting the reform consist of already retired people. There is a growing resentment against baby boomers in the xyz generation.
Not a single pension program on earth is sustainable - including the US' Social Security System. All of them are political 3rd rails and kill careers of anyone seeking to do meaningful reform.
Why did we get to a situation where the government is in charge of safeguarding your retirement and wellbeing? It's insane... we should compel people to have IRA's or some sort of retirement account, but the money needs to be under the control of the person it belongs to.
It can be sustainable, even at comprable rates, especially with fewer younger workers if wages are allowed to increase to meet labor demand.
I really don't understand this reform. However for me to understand it, one would need an 8 hour video stream full of spreadsheet with an actual expert working on that reform.
And no media is ready to do that
There is a coming wave of retirees, and an associated decrease in the workers per retiree to support them.
https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/tr/2022/
See page 12, page 15.
If you both are not understanding the issue, and not interested in learning about the details, then maybe you shouldn't take a strong opinion on the matter.
It's going to be 10 more rough years, until 2032, and then the shape stabilizes. Changing the age from 62 to 64 won't change anything to this generation impact on the system.
Now is the 2032 shape sustainable with the current retirement age ? that's another question, but it's not a matter of protecting against the baby boomer impact.
The fact that it’s running out of money
Oops I forgot about the Euro. Oh well, so much for sovereignty.
So, printing money to meet pension obligations has a similar effect to reducing the amount which is paid out.
Also, I don't think many people accept Francs as currency anymore.
Pension payments cover basic subsistence-level costs for goods that can be mitigated by supply-side production and productivity increases. Claiming that they cause inflation is just rebranded austerity politics. Inflation is caused by fraudulent debt-relief for "businesses" like we saw with PPP and low interest rates that create asset price and shitcoin bubbles.
No it does not. It uses the Euro, which technically requires it to maintain a balance.
Raising the retirement pension age screws over the poor, especially poor men. Perhaps retirement age should be tied to income/wealth somehow ... and maybe even sex (as controversial as I imagine that would be).
https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/uncle-dennis-is-taking-t...
If I have a 20 year mortgage with the bank I can't just change the terms so that the deal suits me better. Why can the government do that with my retirement age, with zero repercussions?
It's been done before:
In Canada, to deal with the sexism of car insurance premiums for example: https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/alberta-man-legally-cha...
In Argentina, to retire 5 years earlier as a woman: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5544173/Argentinian...
In Switzerland, also to retire earlier, which seems almost trivial given the 1 year difference between men and women, but by spending just 75 francs for the reassignment, they unlock of 28,680 francs of additional retirement over their lifespan: https://www.europeantimes.news/2022/02/a-man-changed-his-gen...
And I realize these sources are not great, but I chalk that up to the fact that this is an untouchable subject for mainstream, a taboo subject for many, and an uncomfortable subject for most of us. These are also still fringe cases, even if the benefits are quite clear. There is also something unsavoury about exploiting the system in this way, but it's counterbalanced by the fact that it's a system that's screwing you over.
In a way I do look forward to cases like these ending up in court, solely because I want to see the decisions that result. Do we get a legal ruling on the mutability of gender? Does gender become permanent at a certain age? Does the court instead decide to deal with each case individually, knowing they could potentially set up a tsunami of cases?
Pragmatically, it seems easiest if you just erase gender from these systems, but realistically that would benefit men which makes it unlikely from the current wave of Western-influenced lawmakers.
American Social Security had an age of 65, but at the time of its passing life expectancy for American men was 58.
Unfortunately it doesn't work for everyone, though, and a traditional pension is still needed as a backup.
You can be poor and be an outlier who lives to 100, or a rich person who is an outlier and dies before even getting your first payment.
Saying the average life expectancy is lower ignores the huge overlap of actual life spans across both groups.
I'd like you to read about the Cobra effect first, though.
The whole reason of retirement is to have a bit of freedom in relative good health after a life of work
That people are angry is not about the damn numbers. It's about the attitude of a political class that had private restaurant dinners behind closed doors during lockdown times where the population was fined for being out walking their dogs, it's about a president that's been deliberately calling left-leaning ideas of the younger generations about ecology and equality "extreme-left" while joyfully siding persistently with the actual parties created by fascists, it's about a reform that comes in with a justification of a deficit that was literally created by giving money to large companies and rich people in the form of tax deductions, it's about some of his ministers who take part in all sorts of horrible things and continue to go unpunished, it's about people asking for compassion towards difficult jobs more than for their own selves, and I could go on...
I have no particular knowledge of French macro economic policies, but a tax deduction is not "giving money". It is "not taking money". Your framing assumes that corporate or individual earnings belong to the government and the government can decide to allow the money to be "given" to the taxpayer. Whether that is an appropriate arrangement of private property rights and the relationship between the people and the government is a hotly debated topic, to put it mildly.
I... wouldn't? It just wouldn't have been taken from me.
Why would I think it would have been given to me? I'm perfectly aware it's money I earned in the first place.
In contrast with stimulus checks, for example, which were given, because even if you earned no money at all you still got them.
Whatever the labelling you want to use, but we know for a fact that extreme ecology is going to destroy our country. We saw what happened with French nuclear, we are seeing it in the EU car industry, we are seeing it in French housing. We already know that radical ecology is going to bring social unrest. That the first to suffer is going to be poorest people.
> deficit that was literally created by giving money to large companies and rich people in the form of tax deductions.
We are still one of the most tax heavy country with the most social contribution in Europe and in the world. Macron is just trying to level the playing field and make France attractive.
> it's about people asking for compassion towards difficult jobs more than for their own selves, and I could go on...
After this reform, we will still be one of the most generous country in the world even for pension and social net even among Europe and even more worldwide.
... to whom?
> After this reform, we will still be one of the most generous country in the world even for pension and social net even among Europe and even more worldwide.
Not sure why I'm thinking about a frog being slowly boiled alive.
To the people whose job it is to advocate for the privileges of the wealthy. And that is a frightening number of highly-trained, well-paid people.
They are starting with the foundational belief that taking any privileges whatsoever from the wealthy will end in complete catastrophe for all of society. This is, of course, not true, but it's a story that pays well to tell and re-tell. So, it gets told a lot, particularly here in the Anglosphere, and also apparently now in France.
Tax apply to income generating people by design. You pay very little tax in France if you're poor (as a percentage of income). Macron reduced tax on what is comparable: corporate tax, flat tax on certain income such as dividend. Now, did he go overboard? I will let you judge: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/corporate-tax-rate with https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/social-security-ra...
France has been very generous during COVID, has been very generous during the Energy Crisis with the `bouclier tarifaire` that has helped most the poorest. We really have to put that in a world context where most does not get anything during time like this. Can we really say that France is boiling alive its people?
It is true that this reform (like all others before it, they revolve every 5-10 years in France) is only modifying the system at the margin, so it really is a slow boil.
You say it's "not about the damn numbers", but what does that mean? Does the underlying problem with the numbers not exist? Would the french pension system be fine without such reforms? If not, and reforms are needed, why are is stuff boiling over now? Sure, all the things you listed are legitimate grievances, but it seems counterproductive to get mad at politicians doing painful stuff that needs to be done. It's like getting in a fight with your spouse about how they're "controlling" or whatever, when your house is on fire and you need to evacuate. The only sensible interpretation I can think of is that the people think the reforms are not warranted or there's a better reform that's not being considered, and that's the straw that broke the camel's back and caused people to come out and protest. If that's the case, I wouldn't exactly frame that as "not about the damn numbers".
I didn't even get into the minister pushing for the reform doing crosswords during a parliamentary session on his subject, the inflation absolutely exploding in France, the surge of students falling below poverty lines and needing food stamps worse than during covid, the ministers genuinely advising the population to "wear turtlenecks during the winter", the abuse of 49.3 article (similar to Canada's notwithstanding clause) exactly 10 times in order to push laws that were not democratically agreed upon, the fact that the prime minister got a football t-shirt for Christmas that had that very same "49.3" number on it and really appreciated it.
Or the political failure when handling the CCC (citizen's climate convention) that Macron himself created to satisfy people's expectations, and which actually delivered amazingly as a panel of 150 citizens representing all parts of France giving educated and actionable input on what the country should do. The energy prices putting small business owners on the street in a country where nuclear power could have pretty much carried the load but has been grossly mistreated (admittedly by nearly every single president in a long time). The recent Uber papers, where Macron was directly cited, at a crucial time where now most poor jobs in France have literally been called "uberized" in pejorative terms. And that his party calls for "decency" in the mist of all of this.
French people aren't dumb, contrary to what the sneering suits might believe. This was not only poorly timed, but absolutely tonedeaf by the government, and revealing of the amount of contempt they have for people who at a majority reluctantly elected Macron.
Some sources:
Students hardships: https://www.euronews.com/2022/12/23/inflation-crisis-french-...
Dussopt and his crosswords: https://todaytimeslive.com/world/219510.html
49.3 t-shirt: https://24newsrecorder.com/politics/226033
Wear turtlenecks: https://www.thelocal.fr/20220927/french-minister-advises-wea...
CCC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_Convention_for_Climat...
CCC: https://www.publicdeliberation.net/the-promises-and-disappoi...
Uber papers: https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/jul/10/emmanuel-macron...
The ability for a government to not slip is crucial for slowing the decay.
If young people were understanding the numbers, they would go on streets to push for the reform to be adopted.
The problem is, there is an extreme left group, dreaming of the big night of uprising and revolution to install a communist government in France. So they take every opportunity to block the country and mess everything up, even though they're not even concerned by the reform themselves.
There is a silent majority who is in favor of the reform, which will eventually pass, like always.
if the way to go about protesting is to choose days as per convenience and to have barbeque on the tram tracks, then feel free to do this on a weekly basis. meanwhile, the people on the grind are being affected by disruption of essential public utilities. just like the roller-skating phenomenon mentioned by another poster in the thread, it is only reinforcing the belief of not relying on others in society for your day-to-day needs.
the way people go about it in this instance is not garnering any sympathy by those who need the most support in society.
EDIT: grammar
And it's not lost on me I am essentially doing double work: it's not enough for me to generate enough economic value for myself, society kind of depends on me to generate enough surplus value to cover an entire life's worth of labor (Or more! After all I started much later than my grandfather).
In a way, when Keynes predicted that everyone in the future would work a 20 hour workweek, he was right! He just didn't appreciate how much we would use those productivity gains to backfill that vacation time later in life.
FWIW it looks like there's a injunction against the law being implemented while courts decide on whether it infringes right to protest [1]. From what I understand though, that means any civil suits trying to use that defense would be on hold.
[1] https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/courts-law/2023-01-25/floridas...
Raising the retirement age is not a great strategy, 70 yo people are not as productive and hoard jobs thus increasing unemployment of the most productive, the young. This is massively happening in all of southern europe and is a major reason for economic retardation.
Young people are increasingly aware that they will not get pensions. Old people hold vast amount of wealth in real estate which has become entirely unaffordable even to well-earning young professionals. At some point the collapse of pension funds will meet the need for housing. Hopefully there will be a tradeoff
On the one side (hopefully meaningful to this crowd) is a group that when confronted with the sheer numbers involved and tradeoffs that would make any dent in the coming demographic-driven bankruptcy (shorthand name for it), have to keep things running and try to come up with the actually mathematically workable or "implement this decision" plans with the resources they have. Not aspirations.
Take a look at this for example:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/06/upshot/balanc...
See those numbers/scenarios, there is no getting around the severity of the situation.
Then on the other plane, there are people (politicians, and people in general in the country) who deal in "symbols" and qualitative statements about what they think who is entitled to, what was promised, etc. "Eat the rich!" etc.
And lately it seems, rarely the twain shall meet. Or at least, it's quite rare to find leaders who are equally incentivized or capable of handling both sides of this adeptly. Also, the people who don't understand the numbers generally tend to shout and insist they're right. On the other hand, numbers people don't usually shout (and underplay the severity of coming problems; the type that analyzes is usually civil about it). Also, and this is an evolving thought -- I don't think democracies are very well suited to allocating the pain of a country's long-term downturn very well, or having people understand when your country's resources are actually decreasing.
One thing is for sure -- there is a massive unpleasant reckoning coming in terms of what benefits and tax rates people believed they would experience. There is no magic getting out of this hole, it will be one of / combination of:
-- taxes will rise (for whom?)
-- benefits will decrease (for whom?)
-- retirement age will increase
-- borrowing will increase (from whom?)
And undoubtedly it will largely fall on the next generations. Or just in time for my retirement.
Quite a bit of my university work in the early 2000s revolved around studying and modeling pension-type retirement plans, primarily in the United States (Chicago and Philadelphia mostly come to mind), but a little in foreign countries. While EU pensions tend to be in worse positions, it's a distinction without a difference: Pension reform is basically impossible. Catastrophic bankruptcy and refusal to pay benefits is coming to a theatre near you, because the political will to even begin meager cuts (and so-called "drastic" cuts are indeed merely meager) does not exist.
Politicians who propose meaningful cuts to pensions are guaranteed a single term in office while the candidates waiting in line promise to keep the Ponzi scheme going.
I support pensions, but this has to be done at the federal level, and funded heavily through taxes and pro-natalist policies to keep demographics correct. Cities, states, counties and companies are not able to adequately fund defined benefit pensions.
That probably depends on the culture.
My experience from Finland is that there is always a pension reform going on, or at least people are planning the next reform. It's been recognized for decades that the pension system is unsustainable, and reforms have gradually made it more sustainable. Pension growth is now based on a mix of price and wage growth, the initial pension is based on lifetime contributions rather than final wages, retirement age automatically follows changes in life expectancy, and so on.
Older generations certainly got a better deal, and young people are always cynical. But as people age, they tend to gain confidence in the system, as they have seen it change over their careers.
Also on a side note, I love how sneaky that NY Times article leaves out the option to cut defense. After all we can NEVER reduce our military industrial complex, only cut everything else to the bone.
Not really, but for as bearish as I am on the government in general, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a bright spot, and they do very good work at forecasting, auditing, and evaluating tax cuts, tax increases, budget cuts, and so forth. The average person can have faith that the CBO does mostly good work because politicians on both sides of the aisle really dislike the department when they tell the truth about their plans.
For states and cities, see local government websites for reports. Or you can start here:
https://www.truthinaccounting.org/
On the state/city level, all the money is going to former employees for labor performed in previous decades. The scheme is voters today purchase government employee labor for lower cash outlay today hence lower taxes today, then subsequent taxpayers pay higher and higher taxes as the can gets kicked down the road.
The reason this is different from regular old debt is that via questionable accounting methods and actuarial assumptions, the cost of the deferred compensation is presented as absurdly low compared to what it really is. So it does not show up on any official figures anywhere, just greater and greater portions of the government budget go to paying benefits.
The US seems to have money to throw all over the world for this kind of bloodthirsty waste, if it cuts it can cut there. People getting back money they put into Social Security should be the last thing to go.
The US spends hundreds of billions on these wars of choice, that can be cut very easy.
They spend this money in order to prevent having an actual war later.
Also a lot of the aid is actually jobs program where the aid recipient is required to spend the money on American made goods.
So it's not quite as simplistic as you're making it out to be.
Though the answer to your suggestions is that any populist conception of the American Empire is delusional. Like a mafia they will take your money and spend it in whatever way they damn well wish, and there's nothing you can do about it
There is magic, the rise of productivity. It just didn't reach the ordinary people.
Is this a real question? Top few percent of capital owners captured nearly 100% of productivity inrease that came from last few decades of technological development.
It's obvious who should be taxed.
It is so simple a calculation and so ridiculous a situation, as you say (but in a different way than you mean), that this is a huge problem that will have to be confronted.
The CBO generates those kinds of calculations, and they're not a group known for making up things out of thin air.
Pensions are unheard of now, and companies are still struggling to keep up with them, likely meaning lowered wages for the next group(and no pensions). Tough luck.
I fully expect to pay social security my entire life to subsidize those getting it now, and to be dead before I'm ever able to collect a dime.
Honestly, even having paid into it my whole life, I wish they'd just kill it off. It's an unsustainable pyramid scheme, especially as birth rates flattened. Even if I do live long enough to collect, I don't want that burden on the next generations.
The age is going to keep being raised. A quarter of Americans don't even live to 'full retirement age.' And when it's raised so high it's profitable, the USG is just going to raid it like a slush fund.
Pensions and SocSec were both Ponzi Schemes, Only government could allow something so fraudulent to legally exist. (Interesting Fact, the original SocSec retirement age was 2 years higher than the Life Expectancy Age, now it is something like 8-10year lower... )
It could have kept working provided the population continued to grow at an ever increasing rate keeping the worker to retired person ratio at 10:1, but 2 or 3 generations of declining birth rates, and low immigration means the scheme is coming apart
More so your 401K is currently, and will continue to be reduced in value as the boomer take more and more capital out of the market for their final years. I think we will need to reassess what "normal" returns on a 30 year portfolio looks like as well, in addition to inflation which I think will stabilize at more than the target 2%..
Simply put.. we are economically stag net, and if you are under 40 retirement will be much harder
An example of the flaws of this argument/article is how Social Security is self-funded, and not in any financial jeopardy on its own. [1] Some of the other entitlement programs on the list also work that way.
Regardless, my understanding is that a government's budget never has to be balanced. It doesn't operate like a family household. Oftentimes, national debt is used for pursuits that return on their investment, just like how startup companies operate at a deficit on purpose to prioritize growth that will make the company more valuable in the long term. Inflation also lessens the value of the national debt over time.
I quite like one of those options: taxes on the wealthy and ultra-wealthy have a lot of room to rise. Jack them up, billionaires shouldn't exist, and people like Jeff Bezos shouldn't have a single-digit tax rate.
The other part would be looking at government inefficiencies and flawed policies that aren't on your list, the kind that result in wasted spending that's hard to demonstrate tangibly. For example, should we not talk about how suburban development and the interstate highway system is a monetary drain on wealth for the majority of the country?
It's really obvious to me how building more sewer, road, and utilities per person and forcing everyone to own one car per capita or more is a dumb waste of money on a national level. Our government on every level plays a heavy hand in subsidizing that development pattern.
It would be really easy to afford my tax rate increasing to a much higher level if I wasn't forced to own more than one car just to get myself to work. It would also be easier for me to afford housing if a bunch of single family home owners weren't preventing dense housing from being built, and then all that extra money I saved could go toward something more economically productive than a parking lot.
The average American spends somewhere between $5,000 to $10,000 per vehicle annually. Imagine a USA where everyone could go down to one car per family and how the rest of that money could be used.
But no, instead let's add one more lane and make our retirees work until they're 85 rather than fixing our structural problems that make America a very expensive and energy-wasteful place to live.
Because, when you think about it, national wealth is basically access to energy, and America is squandering their own wealth by dumping it into their GMC Yukon Denali Ultimate that gets 14MPG.
I don't understand why there's a temptation to jump to the conclusion that the answer is to make people retire later in life or cut safety net programs, which are often investments with ROI (e.g., hungry kids learn poorly, hungry kids result in reduced workforce education and productivity).
Are 70 year old employees particularly productive for the economy in the first place? It seems like there are smarter ways to save wealth or earn more wealth for the nation.
[1] https://www.aarp.org/retirement/social-security/info-2020/10...
Not sure what your point is. I'm not sharing the article/infographic and animated budget scenarios as "this is what needs to happen" from some party's perspective. The point is a graphical display of the size of different buckets (which I take as fact) and the sliders that you can play with. The cases being presented are just examples. You can mentally slide the bars / cut line and see how much is required.
> "I also find it funny how the infographic doesn't show a scenario where only defense cuts are made, because it would show us how cutting defense spending is a really simple path toward a balanced budget without changing anything else.
I don't know if you have looked at it, but the defense bar is as big as each of the Medicaid, other mandatory, and "all other" spending bars each. You would have to cut the entire defense budget and still not solve the problem, and only make a fractional share of what is achieved if you implemented cuts to those other programs.
> "Another example of the flaws of this argument/article is how Social Security is self-funded, and not in any financial jeopardy on its own. [1] Some of the other entitlement programs on the list also work that way."
Maybe you have to redefine your definition of self-funded. Sure it is self-funded, as long as taxes increase a lot, given the demographic wave coming. If taxes don't increase, or one of these other options, it will run out of funds. If we don't agree on that, we have a problem. This is the entire debate about the problem we face.
> "Regardless, my understanding is that a government's budget never has to be balanced. It doesn't operate like a family household...."
Well, correct, but the question is how deep do we go into the hole. If you read the story, and the charts, you can see the projections of debt going to 200% GDP. At that point we will be paying enough interest on our debt to have funded several large programs themselves.
> "You're saying our only options are for taxes to rise, benefits decreasing, increasing retirement age, or snowballing debt. But why are those our only options?"
And the other options are?
> "The other part would be looking at government inefficiencies and flawed policies that aren't on your list. For example, should we not talk about how suburban development and the interstate highway system is a monetary drain on wealth for the majority of the country?"
Sure, talk about it, but can you change the bulk of the US to capture whatever benefit you can from that change, within 50 years to save the programs needing the money?
> "I know I've spent a lot of time on this one issue as a specific example, but it's really just one of many ways in which being smart and efficient about the use of the vast wealth generated by the US would go a long way...."
The talking is all good, but the bottom line is will your proposals come up with the money in time?
That seems dubious under any plausible definition of "real protest".
> We've only had one real protest in living memory (that I'm aware of)
(1) Taken as true, the sample size of 1 undermines the impact of the preceding claim.
(2) Define "real protest".
(3) What is the single example in living memory?
As populations age into a higher percentage of retirees, the system is forced to cope with more people who are purely consumers, and contribute nothing to the system. In a post-scarcity world, this would not be a problem, but currently with the oldest generations owning the vast majority of wealth and real estate, and with college, housing, and many costs of living having inflated 3-20x since the older generations were younger, it is a problem.
Giving old people money for free when their 10x more valuable houses inflate the market, keeping the younger generation from being able to start families, is a killing blow for population growth and the livelihoods of younger generations.
https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_POPU_1204_0683--the-mos...
People were not "old" and dying at appreciably higher rates given they reached age 60 back then. The general premise that there's a lot of rich old people now is true. But the factors that have raised life expectancy are probably working against this trend, and to minor effect, as they primarily raise the current number of kids.
These people are not contributing during retirement, but HAVE contributed in the past. In fact people pay (especially in places like France) into a government retirement fund.
And this happens over 20-40 years of work. This is a long time and if properly managed, should be fine.
So people aren't just being given "free money", this is something that they have paid for and so they are protesting, because it's basically a kind of service that they have been promised in exchange for being taxed each pay check.
But I still come back to the question of what you will do at retirement?
uh, didn't the old people finance their own social security? Didn't they give up money their whole lives to finance their homes? Don't they contribute to society in other less-measurable ways?
That said, there could be some ways to retire, but be able to work in such a way that retirement is not adversely affected. Some of my friends who retired had to carefully not work or social security was adversely affected.
Technologically, imho we have been beyond a post scarcity level for quite a while - its our economic system and its poor allocation of wealth and resource allocation that is antiquated, irrational, and constraining the system. Austerity is just giving up at actually building the system in the ways needed for more people to retire or even live out their lives avoiding things like climate change.
To add, simply take a look at the % of USA federal spending that goes to Medicare and Social Security, which are benefits for the over 65 population. It's 1/3rd.
1/3rd of Americans are also over the age of 55, which will push that number higher.
We are consuming our young. As a 29 year old, unless technology advances radically and I have positions in the companies controlling it, I will not get what I put in.
There are many advanced economies in worse positions. France for example spends ~15% of it's total GDP on pensions alone.
We can all blame whatever severely rich people exist, however the death by a thousand cuts brought on by too few supporting too many is the root of the issue.
The worst part is, many of these supported elderly aren't even able to live decent lives.
Regarding college inflation, that's purely caused by young people taking out loans. Don't do that. My kid is taking a good number of his classes at the community college. If y'all started shopping for the cheapest way to get an education, costs would come down.
I'm sorry but I've contributed a fuckload of money to this system and I better be getting the value I paid for out of it when it comes to that time. These people are not 'consumers'
This is one "benefit" of inflation. Whatever you did 50 years ago in exchange for your wealth isn't worth as much to society today as it was back then, in general. So you can continue to do something productive or hope you were productive enough before you retired that your compensation lasts.
Also interesting that the inflationary effect of this phenomenon is starting to be recognized. A large fraction of the population has nothing to do but sit around spending money. I'd never considered this point before now, but hopefully the Fed takes it into account when they decide how much to hose the rest of us with high interest rates (which the Boomers also DGAF about.)
Maybe the system needs to adapt to humans not the other way around. Why human worth is only linked of how much money they make? It's dystopian.
Aside from that money not being "free", the important part of your observation is on the housing price and how the market works I think. These are IMO way more important issues than wether elderlies should work until 65 or 95.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170131190102.h...
Its 73.5 for males. you only have 8 years after retirement :/
Didn’t they pay into Social Security?
Sort of off topic, but I do agree that the older generations in the western world, particularly the american baby boomers, act sociopathic as a group. There is a good book about this: A generation of sociopaths. [1]
Sad to watch an entire generation hate their children and grandchildren (if they even have them). Believe me, I do not enjoy painting an entire group of people with a shit-stained brush, but it is what it is and it should be called out.
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Generation-Sociopaths-Boomers-Betraye...
This is an ageist perspective and foundational to what you've written. Older people have a lot to contribute and it's unmeasured.
The same goes for partners who stay at home with young people instead of working. They're DEEPLY contributing without pay.
You're going after old people in a faux-scarcity world. How about you take on the collective issues, like capitalism choosing to gatekeep resources behind labor?
Second, wealth is not zero-sum, there isn't a magic pot of gold redistributed between people. As value and demand are added to the economy, so is wealth because the new young people with demands can provide skills or time to be used in value creation and then they also (and older folks that are not creating value because they are not working) can consume and create demand which defines the amount of wealth they create. Poor old people are a net negative but rich old people create demand and thus wealth for value creating youth, unless of course they have everything they need and live in the woods or something. But even poor old people need to eat and have health care demands that young people provide.
The forest you are missing for the trees here is the greed of corporations who are not increasing wages to keep up with not just inflation but the value young people are creating. Things like labor unions are a joke in the US and politicians need corporations like fish need water. So the profit margins of companies and the wealth of shareholders is increasing as a result of the young people who are creating that wealth and giving it away to them because they can't collectively bargain and say they want fair pay. as individuals they can be replaced easily if they don't like the compensation.
So this whole old people vs young people and millenials destroying things and boomers hoarding wealth and all that is bullshit.
The education in the US is shit, you can't compete in a global economy and keep up with wealth creation as a result (still at the top but getting closer to stagnation). And the US is essentially and oligarchy at this point. The richest country in the world and it is the rich share holding class that only care about amassing enough wealth that their descendants will make it through whatever shit the country goes through, so they don't care how much americans suffer or get robbed in day light.
This comes down to democracy being a game of information. Whoever controls information controls democracy and this means two things, education and media. You have so many idiots even young ones fall for the trump bullshit because of education and media/social media bubbles and it isn't an accident that education is shit either, it isn't an accident that racism and xenophobia and other hateful things are the tools the ruling class uses to manange democracy.
America embraced greed as a way of life and the greedy rule and we are finding out why greed is evil in all forms as If we are part of a fable people will tell their children ages from now to teach them to avoid greed and pride.
But not all hope is lost, information and disinformation are education and self education are still popular thanks to the internet. Americans need to pursue truth and justice and fight evil because nothing built on lies and evil lasts.
Democracy can still work, but if the voters embrace greed, the the result is what you see. Ask most americans what they think of basic welfare and they'll tell you it's just black people being lazy and taking from the government (in reality it is mostly not black people but why does race matter at all?). We all know greed and hated are wrong, we can't blame corporations and politicians when we choose hatred and greed, these things must be adressed before you can change the way things are done and have fair wages and a stable democracy and solve so many other major issues in the US.
Forgive the long post, let me know if you disagree.
First, average life expectancy is absolutely not an interesting measure. You should at least look at the average age up to which people are alive and in good health. And this is much lower. Also, life expectancy is very different depending on your social class. Construction workers die much younger than software engineers. And this is even more true regarding life expectancy in good health. By increasing the age at which one can retire, what you actually do is to make the poorer contribute to retirement money they won't be able to benefit of because they'll be dead before or soon after while the rich will enjoy their retirement since they live longer in good health.
Concerning the whole there is more old people thing: yes, there is, but at the same time workers have never been as productive as they're now. And France as never been as rich as it is now. There is no technical problem here, just a political choice. The Cor (Conseil d'orientation des retraites, which is the official institution that studies retirement in France with projections into the future etc) says our retirement system is currently stable with no real risk to its equilibrium (actually there is one scenario over four in which it may temporarily have a deficit in a few years but that resorbs itself over a few years as well — and you have to know that a few years back they made projections and were quite pessimistic for the situation today, but the reality is that nowadays our retirement system is afloat and well, with multiple billions in positive this year for example). Also, there are solutions if we need more contribution to retirement fund: one of which is to increase wages, another one of which is to pay women the same as men (in France the gap is still between 15% and 20%), another one is to tax the richest more, or simply to politically accept to keep the portion of GDP we spend on the elderly the same rather than wanting to keep the absolute amount the same or lower (which is what Macron wants).
Finally, retirement pension is not "giving people money for free". Retired people are not "just consumers", they contribute a lot to society, even if from a capitalist point of view it is not directly visible: more than a third of the volunteering in (quite sadly, indispensable) non-profit is done by young retirees who can still do it, almost half of baby-sitting is done by grand-parents who can do it because they're retired, etc.
What kills the livelyhoods of younger generation is small wages, no political control over rent prices, a partly artificial inflation which main effect is to make everyone pay more at the supermarket to enrich shareholders who bet on the inflation even more, and soon, if this law passes, it will be the burden of having to take care of their parents who could not work til the increased retirement minimum age for health reasons and will therefore have way too small pensions to be independent.
Corporate profits in the US amount to about $10T/year [1]. You can and should view this as an estimate of the surplus value of labor that is being extracted. This amounts to $36,000 for every adult (~275M) in the US per year.
We could absolutely afford an unimaginable increase of standard of living for retirees and workers. We simply choose not to.
[1]: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/corporate-profits
Here in the US, people do not give a sh**. Already benefits have been reduced to the point were you cannot live on Social Security unless you pitch a tent next to a dumpster outside of a restaurant.
Not only that, every year the retirement age is increased. For people born after 1960 full retirement is 67. The GOP in congress is trying to raise it to 70.
Do US people care, no they do not. If this happened in France I think the full government would be dragged out and "guillotined".
I admire the French for standing up for their rights.
https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction...
This is a problem with Congress not managing the Social Security system properly over the last 85 years.
> Not only that, every year the retirement age is increased. For people born after 1960 full retirement is 67. The GOP in congress is trying to raise it to 70.
See the life expectancy and demographic tables published here by none other than the SSA: https://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html
That's because the combination of benefits times life expectancy times demographics is either going to result in a 25% reduction in benefits that the SSA can pay out or result in a high tax burden on workers (read: major economic drag and recessions) or some kind of half-assed compromise in between.
Had Congress continuously and properly managed the retirement ages, contributions, and SS trust funds properly over the last 85 years we would not be having this conversation. But they haven't, and now there will be pain for almost everyone because of it.
Correct, but most of this issue is because on Party has been trying to eliminate it since its inception.
>demographics is either going to result in a 25% reduction in benefits that the SSA can pay out or result in a high tax burden on workers
Right now the Tax cap is 160,200, Congress should eliminate that tax cap, then there will be plenty of $. That cap is about equal to 9300 in 1938. Lots of people in Mang. makes well over that amount.
Pretty sure employee wages aren't tracking anywhere near that.
What the system ought to be is:
1) Everyone who can't work gets a pension/state support/whatever you want to call it. If you get run over by a car at 25, you are on this list until you die and the state supports you. It's expensive, but there aren't that many people who end up in this state. Maybe a few percent, eg 3%.
2) We set a pensioner ratio. For instance if it's 20%, the 3% of people in cat 1 above get a pension, and the 17% oldest people who aren't in cat 1 get a pension.
This would naturally change the age at which people get to retire, moving it up and down depending on birth rates.
What we have is not workable. There aren't enough young people for the number of boomers who are retiring, and not only that, the older people turn out more and have more votes, enabling them to force worse conditions on everyone else.
Of course, this creates a giant perverse incentive to get yourself classified as "can't work". Ask the US Social Security disability system how that goes.
I currently live in Germany, like about half of the population is in the age group that is allowed to work. About 1/4th of these work at minimum wage, and I would wager a guess that up to about another 1/4th is either officially declared "unemployed" (the official definition of that gets regularly messed with, guess why) or in a state every normal would declare "unemployed" one way or another.
On the other hand you have massive automation everywhere, but taxes for companies are totally different to taxes for people, and the basic idea of retirement is that the current production output is paying the retirement for the current old people. From a large scale view on this it shouldn't be an issue for Germany, but they face similar issues like France and sticking through the status quo doesn't leave many options in the end with a system like that.
And yes, it obviously is larger scale, because as you see, it is not just retired people affected by the problem, it is everyone, kids included (their parents being the proxy).
Now think about how multinational corpos use nation states for their own benefits and other such stuff and you see that where things are currently heading on the larger scale is actually the worst possible option to fix anything, it just speeds this entire process up towards the breaking point. For all this "intelligence" humans supposed to have, this whole thing is a terrible joke.
This isn't a maths equation, it's a societal choice, that's why Macron doesn't get it, he's a bead counter for Maastricht, what he does is making sure the spreadsheet is balanced
fyi taxing the 40 richest people in France 2% more would cover the same amount of money as having the entire active population work 2 more years.
edit: since it's not clear, I'm talking about pension related debt (the main argument of the french government for raising the retirement age), obviously not the national debt/deficit
edit2: ah and 25% of the poorest workers are already dead by 62 https://www.liberation.fr/resizer/J5W0vs_DrAdsjx5xHUxhhC_otn...
and 30% of people above 60 are unemployed because nobody hire seniors https://lemagdusenior.ouest-france.fr/article-78-combien-fra...
My back-of-the-envelope calculations:
Sum of wealth of top 40 richest people in France: 556 billion [1]
Annual income of top 40 richest people in France, assuming 10% growth of wealth: 56 billion
2% additional tax on that income: 1 billion
Size of active working population of France: 40.8 million [2]
Size of about-to-retire population: 1 million (guess based on [3])
Annual pension cost per retiree: 18000 [4]
Direct pension savings by delaying retirement by 1 year: 18 billion
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_French_billionaires_by...
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA64TTFRQ647N
[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/464032/distribution-popu...
[4] https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/Practical/Everyday-L...
Edit: I looked it up and the net worth of all of France's billionaires is ~half a trillion dollars, so even if you seized it all it would basically cover the French government's budget deficits for a grand total of two years, assuming they were actually able to seize it all and it didn't have disastrous economic side effects. That's France's total deficit, not sure how much of that is directly attributable to the pension system.
Even if you ate the rich and took all of their money, all you've done is created inflation because the actual value of the economy hasn't shifted. An economy is more about the "stuff" than the money - even Marx would have agreed with as much.
So this is only ostensibly about funding a deficit - this is just as much a measure to prevent a GDP freefall from a shrinking aging working population.
here France revenues brakdown: https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-france.pdf
If people get older on average, and there’s less young people to take care of them (pension wise), then the old people will have to work longer. It’s not a hard equation.
You can change more than the retirement age in the equation, or change the equation.
It depends on who you ask.
At first, macron is neoliberal. He doesn't believe in the role of the democratic representation in the economy, nor taxes nor wealth redistribution. On his first mandate, he deleted capital tax at the same time he lowered housing subsidies for the worse off. Today, he saves on social security to fund tax breaks.
Then some say it's "pantouflage", and he's pleasing future employers. Indeed, a lot of formerly high ranking politicians and civil servants ended up on the board of profitable companies. For example, Nicolas Sarkozy was hired on the board of Accor (Europe #1 hotel company). François Fillon, a former prime minister, joined the board of a Russian state owned oil company after he lost a presidential election (he was a conservative and nationalist candidate). So politicians and regulators can just make financial companies happy to get a top job.
A third explanation is that poor workers won't vote for him anyway. Macron's party only rely on 20% of the voters. Raising retirement pleases them.
It's ok if he upsets the other 80%, as other political wings suffer from too many similar parties that compete (we had 3 trostskyist candidate during the last election, 1 communist, 2 socialists) so they number of voters get split. or they don't get along (traditional right wing was weak after the cases with Sarkozy and Fillon)
We can all learn A LOT from how the French hold their elected representatives accountable, and don't let them get away with BS.
Plenty seek high paying jobs elsewhere.
Literally paying your most experienced people not to work is a little … not so good.
Maybe they have been heard and listened too and the democratically elected government of the people disagrees. Just because you don't get your way doesn't mean you haven't been listened to.
> "We are using the only means we have left: it's the hard strike ... we are not going to give up."
This is the part where the petulant child that doesn't get what it wants threatens to hold its breath until it turns blue. This is anti-democratic and nothing but coercive, naked extortion. Like literally extortion.
Consider the fact that politicians can be elected and then break the promises they made during the campaign. The electoralist response to this is 'well you can vote them out next time,.' But that ignores the cost of the damage that can occur during the interval, plus it's not clear how the populace is supposed to hold other politicians to account - to the point that there is a general expectation of politicians being dishonest and mendacious.
Really, in what other job are you only subject to review every few years and if people don't like what you're doing in the meantime you can reply with complete BS, often overtly?
Democratic elections are a good thing, but they are not the be-all and end-all of politics. Strikes and boycotts are absolutely a legitimate form of political expression, in which labor or consumer market participants coordinate their economic activity to obtain political leverage. If you won't tolerate anything other than elections, North Korea has those.
Protesting is the mechanism they have at their disposal.
Seriously, it’s been at least 35 years since I’ve heard about a French person actually working..
In principle, a pension scheme will work forever, in isolation, as long as the following inequality holds true:
(A:=(working_pop * avg_income * avg_pension_tax_%)) >= (B:=(retirement_pop * avg_benefit_payout))
If investments are allowed in said scheme, the inequality can be relaxed slightly:
A + (C:=(investments * return_ratio * withdrawl_%)) >= B
with (investments:=(previous_investments + A-B)), and (return_ratio:=(1 + return_%)).
From here, 2 long-term paths can emerge:
a) C >= B : The entire scheme can run off of investment returns, reducing reliance on A. This is the ideal.
b) A + C < B : To rebalance & reaffirm the inequality, more is taken from A or C to return back to A + C >= B (see below). Future C may be less than Current C as a result, making the chances of (b) happening again increase.
The vehicle begins to fall apart when A + C < B, with no alarms sounded until it's been made known.
From there, the following solutions are brought out to reaffirm the inequality:
- Increase any(working_pop, avg_income, avg_pension_tax_%)
- Decrease any(retirement_pop, avg_benefit_payout)
Some of those modifications are unpalatable to some of the voting population, and thus can't be changed:
- The elderly will not be happy if avg_benefit_payout decreases
- The 'close-to-retire's & the general working pop in general will not be happy if the retirement age increases, in an attempt to reduce retirement_pop
- The working pop, depending on culture, will not be happy if avg_pension_tax_% increases
- Anti-immigrants will not be happy with immigration, in an attempt to increase working_pop
That leaves very little on the table:
- Child tax breaks & incentives in trying to increase working_pop, but this takes time
- Increase avg_income, increasing pressures on businesses in order to keep margins the same
---
There is a way to always keep the scheme alive, when all else fails, but it's a last-ditch effort only reserved for emergencies.
Referring back to the relaxed inequality above (A + C >= B), we can append another inflow stream to the left side of the inequality:
A + C + (D:=(treasury_money_printing)) >= B
This will keep the scheme working, but it sacrifices the long-term value retention of the currency being used. The baseline inflation for said currency increases, giving everyone a 'soft tax' via the debasement of the currency in question.
The implications of incorporating D into the inequality would mean that the currency's ability to keep its value long term will be brought into question. Very little good will come from a weakening currency, unless the country is a net exporter.
There's a similar situation with the UK's universal credit. On the face of it it was replacing a patchwork of benefits with a single unified benefit, which should be better and more efficient. However the implementation was designed to actually reduce benefits paid out (e.g. they replaced up front payments with payment in arrears, made it difficult to sign on to, kick people off for small issues, etc etc).
Changes labelled with the same name can be radically different in actual results, you really have to look into any given proposal.
- wealth tax is the best way
- capital hoarding is a thing
- capital hoarding is destroying modern society
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/education/2021/02/11/le...
What’s more, it led to an exodus of France’s richest. More than 12,000 millionaires left France in 2016, according to research group New World Wealth. In total, they say the country experienced a net outflow of more than 60,000 millionaires between 2000 and 2016. When these people left, France lost not only the revenue generated from the wealth tax, but all the others too, including income tax and VAT.
Save your own money. If Social Security exists by the time I retire, great. I'm planning as if it won't.
Banks go bankrupt, gold changes value, cash gets stolen. Seems like the U.S. government is the best option.
Hear, hear, especially given the historical priors : (hint: across a generation-sized time spans, governments never keep their promises. Why should they, they usually are in power for decades at most).
And yes, relying on governments to handle your retirement money is completely insane, but the vast majority of folks in e.g. the EU have drunk that kool-aid even though it was guaranteed to fail since day one.
Retirement plans the way they work in Western Europe were always an absolute con, very much like a ponzi scheme (new players pay for the earlier players).
When the young, working population was vastly larger than the old retiree population (because the retirement age was designed so that most people died before reaching it), the government milked their working young for all they were worth.
Now that the age pyramid has inverted (large retiree population, few working youngs), there simply isn't enough income generated by the young to pay for the old and retirement income is paid using debt.
What a freak show.
I would guess that most people my age (between 35-45) got told some variant of this in their business and economics classes in university. At least, I hope they did.
Looking at Social Security budgets for about 20-30 minutes and what politicians have proposed to do to fix it is enough to make most reasonably-minded people understand that expecting anything more than token amounts of money from the program is idiotic.
If you trust the financial markets more than the government that you elect, I have a bridge to sell you.
Sure some smart people will be able to extract profit from the market but most won't. I'd rather live in a country where the people I chose can organize to ensure that nobody needs for anything rather than in a country where I gamed the system and now have to protect my loot against hordes of have-nots.
And if I can't do that, the joke is on me.
If you save for yourself it's likely that you lose.
Here in the Netherlands, we pride ourselves on our "polder model", a trinity of government, employers and unions that come to a consensus, hence no need to strike. That system worked well for some decades hence society runs on auto pilot.
Trouble is, due to globalization and ever more temp contracts (fire at will), the power of unions have been decimated and the combination government/employers are calling the shots, slowly eating away at worker rights.
Our "holy" retirement age used to be 65, unchanged for a huge amount of time. It was declared as unsustainable to keep it that way, instead it should become a rolling number, coupled with life expectancy. My pension fund predicts my retirement age at about 70.5.
This change was pushed through because keeping it at 65 would cost 5B per year for the foreseeable future. Absolutely unaffordable for our tiny country.
40B in support to keep businesses open during COVID though...just pulled from a hat. 25B in energy compensation so that households don't freeze to death...arranged in mere weeks.
Just saying...unaffordable means no political will.
Anyway, regardless of the money mechanics, retiring at 70+ is absurd. It effectively means no retirement at all. I know a huge amount of boomers, many were able to retire at 58-62, especially blue collar. Most by then already were in poor health but managed to pull off a decent decade of rest and joy with still some activity like going on holidays.
By 70 it's over. Some dead, the others depleted. Their partner may have died. They have severe health issues. No energy or will power left to truly have one more adventurous run. Hobbies abandoned. Health and quality of life declines exponentially. 60-70 and 70-80 are not the same thing.
Further, nobody actually wants these old people at work. Blue collar people are broken by then and white collar is either obsolete and outdated or strongly discriminated. I'm in my 40s and struggling to stay relevant.
The point of my rant is that there's always an economic reason to make workers' lives shittier. Always. Every time there's a rational reason to do so that seems to make sense. And that's how you end up working as a couple for 50 years straight. It's never going to be enough.
Only with unity as seen in France can you call out their bluff.
The age should actually be 60 and we should be having ever shorter worker weeks. A concept I call "time for wealth". In the future we probably have to do with less stuff. But it's not a vision for the future to say to people that their wealth is under pressure whilst still needing to work themselves to death.
Hence, we trade that wealth for time. You learn to live with less material goods which increases your appreciation of them. More durable/reparable products. Higher prices because externalities are included. Doesn't have to be bad at all, restoring some sanity here. In return for this material "poverty", you get more economic security, more free time, retire earlier. Also fits in well with our AI future that will disrupt work.
I think that's a vision people can get behind, and we'll still leave the door open for the super achievers that want more stuff.
France is not alone, other country's have raised the pension age, but other countries use their food legislation to keep the population docile, high house prices to keep people from protesting for fear of losing a roof over their head, and other tactics people are getting wise to and slowly rejecting when they wake up to the subtle forms of manipulation that goes on.
France pension system isn't close to bankruptcy. It needs some adjustment but pushing retirement age isn't the only option. Also one thing to understand is that there are two criteria to get a full pension
1. work 43 years (this used to be 36.5 but has been increased 10 years ago), so we're not feeling this yet
2. be at least 62
The reform wants to push 62 to 64 in 2. The problem is that educated people will already retire after 64 because of the first constraint. So this reform targets explicitly those who started to work younger, and who are also those with lower life expectancy and with the hardest job. This is unfair. At the same time, France (as in French citizen) has never been as rich in history as it is now. There should be better wealth redistribution here. It's very apparent when you look at the numbers.
Another issue is employment. In practice, a lot of people struggle to find a job when they are 55+. These reforms will increase poverty in the country.
Last point. France isn't like the US were people are incentized to build equity for their retirement. The rule of the game here is that current employees pay for retirees and in exchange expect their pension to be taken care of when they are older. The rules are changing midway and people are upset about it.
France already has high taxes and amazing work-life balance. I don't know much about state of medical industry to comment. However, if its not completely terrible, then raising the retirement age seems like the only knob that could be turned.
If the government can not get something basic like covering subsistence-level costs for its population over 62 working without bankrupting the country, the government is broken, the economic system is broken and shutting it down is an appropriate response.
Technology and efficiency has caused labor productivity to increase [1] and that increase has not been captured in wages. It has been instead captured by private capital as profit.
1. https://www.lemonde.fr/blog/piketty/2017/01/09/of-productivi...
Even when people do vow not to cut these programs, they are planning on making a change, it's just what they plan to change is the tax rate or amount of debt issued.
We have the means to do it.
Upto 75% of population is employed in bullshit jobs anyway (= not producing anything, or even being harmful to the society).
Only 2% of population working in agriculture already produces food for 10+ billion people, just 8% works in manufacturing (IIRC).
Give the basic income population plant-based food (== use just 25% of agriculture land) and automate transport (trains) and distribution (like amazon with its warehouses).
Everybody can choose to work on anything they want, and be compensated for doing so, of course.
We'd save the environment, stop biodiversity loss and store more carbon than produced since 1750 (reforesting grazing lands), solve the world hunger, save the environment (no need to own so much cars, burn so much fuel and time going to meaningless jobs, to pay for a roof over a head with 40 years of life, no need for so much pesticides/herbicides, deforestation etc.) ...
Hm ... time to stop dreaming. Back to work.
Source?
I love that so many people are convinced everyone but them is doing nothing and somehow getting paid for it.
> Only 2% of population working in agriculture already produces food for 10+ billion people.
What's your point?
Who's going to take care of sick people? Who's going to educate our next generation? Who's going to maintain our infrastructure? Who's going to police people? Who's going to defend our country from war? Who's going to make sure your cellphone still works? Who's going to make sure your house still has electricity? Who's going to make sure the laws are being followed? Who's going to make new entertainment for you?
We need to do more than just have beans to eat.
That's all we need. Basic income will allow people to get housing, internet and food.