NB: Life lesson here is that a pretty reliable indicator of a crisis situation is when you keep mis-assessing the situation. The ground truth is either changing far faster than you can keep up with it, or conditions are well outside any of your expectations or experience. Or that the story / narrative / signals simply aren't coherent or consistent.

This is something I've noted in a number of different situations --- not just business or financial situations, though those would be among them.