EDIT: I think it's most likely that it repegs to $1.00 within a week, but at 96c (current price) there's not enough risk-adjusted return for me.
EDIT: I think it's most likely that it repegs to $1.00 within a week, but at 96c (current price) there's not enough risk-adjusted return for me.
There is a real risk that it breaks - badly. Even if the risk still low, or very low, it's significantly higher than in usual times. And if sharks find the right angle to attack, they will - and could burn it all down to 0 really quickly.
Below 90c with the information we had on Friday was a silly price.
Do I think there is a small chance of a systemic collapse? Sure, the Fed and the Biden administration are completely capable of blundering. Is that risk double digits? Let's be real.
Again, even if the real risk is as low as 1-2% (which I think it is), on a risk-adjusted return on a limited/capped amount for 4% ROI short-term trade is not a good use of funds for most portfolios. Kelly Criterion and so forth.