Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout
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“Depositors shouldn’t get anything beyond the insured $250,000”. Then what do we do with the billions in remaining assets? Appropriate them, and leave small and mid businesses hanged to dry?
“This is a bailout”. It would be if shareholders were to get their money back, which doesn’t seem likely. The government will use the bank assets to make customers, not owners, whole.
Generic screeching against the tech world. I get the schaudenfreude, but this will not hurt big tech and VCs as much as tens of thousands of small businesses, and the people employed at them. Some billionaires will be upset at some relatively insignificant losses, while hundreds of thousands may lose their jobs.
Absolutely wipe out the equityholders of SVB. They deserve nothing, because that's what you should end up with if you own stock in a company that goes bankrupt. Claw back executive pay if that's something you can do. But kill a bunch of startups because of their choice of financial institution? I just don't get where that comes from.
Second of all, the purpose of having a limit to FDIC insured deposits is to limit the government's liability in case of bank failures to small-ish depositors. A company thag has millions of dollars to deposit also has more responsibility to evaluate the bank they are depositing in. Perhaps they shouldn't keep money in the bank in the first place, but find other uses for them.
Note that the true FDIC insurance limit is much larger than the 250k that usually gets cited - since there are various facilities for business accounts which can take that up to a million $ or more (multiple signers on the same account, multiple types of accounts). Should be plenty for most startups to pay their employees' salary outright, even without going bankrupt.
Cynicism reigns supreme on social media right now, and HN comments are a type of social media.
There is also a deeply engrained “us versus them” mentality baked into a lot of the anger. The SVB scenario has more people identifying the “us” part as taxpayers (who would presumably foot the bill for backstopping losses) and the “them” part as VCs and investors.
Interestingly, if this was rephrased as an “Ask HN” post where someone was concerned about their next paycheck because their startup’s bank failed, I suspect the sentiment would be completely reversed. The more relatable the story, the kinder the comments.
† (50% of which is outside the of the US, and a majority of which is people who don't work for "big tech", which ironically isn't much at all directly impacted by SVB)
One, anybody with a bank account has heard about the FDIC and the FDIC insurance limits. Presumably anybody smart enough to raise millions of dollars know that if part of something is insured, the rest is uninsured. There are in fact good systemic reasons both for the FDIC to exist and for the limit to be high for individuals but low for companies.
Two, the tech industry, especially the VC-funded end, is forever crowing about the power of the marketplace. How regulation stifles valuable innovation. How government intervention is a problem, not a solution.
Three, among startups, market-driven disruption is practically a religion. Startups destroy existing companies all the time. Quite often it's an explicit goal, where startup X lists existing players A and B as companies whose lunches will get eaten because they are making bad choices.
Four, there has been endless puffery and chest-thumping among VCs and tech startups how their genius justifies pocketing billions and billions of dollars when times are good. Best and brightest, incredibly hard workers, blah blah blah. Including a special tax exemption for VCs, because they're just such amazing financial wizards.
Five, startup go under all the time. Which, having experienced it, definitely sucks. But when a startup goes under due to bad choices or bad luck, that's the game.
So when I put this together, I firmly believe that startups with bad treasury management should not be subsidized by taxpayers. If we're so smart and amazing that we get to reshape segments of the economy, we're smart enough to follow basic financial advice like "don't put all your eggs in one basket". If we choose to play the game that might make us rich, we should not suddenly complain about the rules when we lose.
In practice, the likely outcome here is that depositors either take no haircut or a modest one. Anybody going out of business because of that was already on the edge. And that will be partly because their investors will not see them as worthy of a bridge loan or an accelerated next round.
Which, again, sucks for the people involved. But it's not a problem for taxpayers to solve. If we're going to spend billions of dollars on improving the safety net, I think startups are way, way down the list of priorities.
HN comment quality, thoughtfulness, and etc seems to drop off with higher visibility…. and sadly generally too.
The more visible the more comments resemble Reddit or the god awful knee jerk hot takes you get in local newspaper comment sections :(
It’s a bummer as I’ve enjoyed the generally high comment quality on HN for a long time.
HN has been around awhile and has been a hotbed of the same starry-eyed startup dream for a couple generations of young people getting on the carousel now, so I guess I'm not terribly surprised if the attitude "welcome to the club, we would print you a t-shirt but our printer startup went out of business" shows up around these parts from the folk who have been on the ride awhile.
There are a lot of folks who read HN who had their dream crushed for a lot stupider reasons.
ETA: that is something I'd like to see more of here though. There's a lot of folks who have been through a bust cycle and survived it and even stayed in the industry. What kept you going? How did you come out the other side? Was it as scary as it feels when you haven't done it before?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrFSO62p0jk
Spoiler alert (18:30): It was entrepreneurship that turned the economy around. Not fed policy.
SVB put their deposits in US Treasury Bonds. Commonly regarded as the safest investment vehicle there is. Then the fed raised interest rates, completely screwing over this strategy. Then VCs panicked, like sheep.
So now we're in a situation where the most successful startups in the innovation sector are at risk of being wiped out while the US economy is being guided toward recession to cool inflation. Go watch that talk- then tell me you really think its a good idea to let it all burn.
Such is life in the free market. Looks like the US government disrupted you. Doesn't mean the US taxpayer has to bail you out.
I'm just a Regular Joe, and I have saving and chequing accounts at two banks in case there's an account discrepancy / disagreement with one, I still have some funds I can pay bills with until things get sorted out. Stuff happens:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_RBS_Group_computer_system...
I also have a couple of hundred dollars worth of cash (e.g, in case of power outages).
If you're a multi-million dollar operation, why do you have a single point of failure with regards to finances?
(And this has nothing to do with 'deserve': if you play golf during a thunderstorm, would you be surprised if you got zapped?)
On the flip side, I also have worked in startups much of my career, and think I and people like me should be paid for our work. I think we should help the startups out, bail them out, but without helping the VCs. I think what that means is the startups effected should get their money back, but the VC owned shares of the company then become government assets that can be sold in the future to offset the cost of the buyout.
It's simply not right for government money to bail them out, but fornthe VCs to profit from it years from now.
Edited to add: In the end the point I'm trying to make is that it's not right for us to take money from average non-rich Americans to pay back VCs (rich americans) who gambled their money. If the bailout comes from people that earn more than 500k a year exclusively then I'm all for it. But taking public money that was taken from a single mom who is barely getting by to do so is wrong.
The shareholders should lose all of their investment, that is a no-brainer, but the depositors should not lose 1 penny, and their funds be available on Monday morning.
Here's an overlooked deadline: 6:00 PM EST, that is when Sydney (Australia)'s stock market opens. If that opens a lot lower, it will be the start of a free-fall cascade of stock markets worldwide.
So, we have less than 5 hours as of this writing for an official FDIC/Federal Reserve statement.
Wait for it.
I got no dog in this fight(as I'm an Indian, and stay in India). But I guess what they are saying is they don't want to be paying for it. They just want whoever is responsible to make somebody else pay for these problems.
So bailout is ok, they just don't want to pay for it, and may be find other people(VCs, other billionaires) who can invest/bailout that bank on their terms.
I'm in the same position as you but this is a terrible take.
No one thinks we deserve to lose money or jobs.
They simply do not believe that other American taxpayers who likely make less than you should have to spend their hard earned money (or risk having it devalued by printing) in order to bail you out.
And they are broadly correct.
It is wrong to demand other people's money due to your own misfortune, especially when the misfortune is a lost business or job, versus something more existential. The reality is that most tech workers will be fine.
If you want to be paid by the government, you should be aware that salaries are significantly lower, and perks are non-existent.
The government regulates banks and provides deposit insurance to to 250K.
The whole point of deposit insurance is to prevent retail bank runs by the general public.
Beyond that, it is the job of your CFO to manage risks, including the risk bank failure.
The last large wave of bank failures happened barely over a decade ago. These things happen.
Also, it sounds like your company will lose at most a fraction of its deposits.
During a bankruptcy creditors get paid first, and investors are only allowed access to what is left after creditors are paid off. Hopefully a company declares bankruptcy before their total liabilities becomes larger than their total assets, otherwise creditors cannot be paid in full.
Bank bailouts were largely done so banking services are not disrupted. As valuable as SVB was to startups, it's small potatoes to what 2007/2008 bailouts prevented. "Too big to fail" clearly doesn't apply here.
HN has grown a lot and there are much more people who are not necessarily from SV.
In the real world, if you live in SF, work in startups doing what you like, get paid well, not trapped in 9-5 etc.
That's elite and nobody will ever feel sorry for you. As a general rule every guy should always expect nobody to feel sorry for them, but this particular set of circumstances and the area of the country where they unfolded scream 'millionaires problems' to those roaming in the interwebz.
And now HN is part of the interwebz.
Why don’t VCs double down and make their investees whole? They’re the ones who bankroll and believe in these ideas, and stand to make 1000x profits in their successful exits.
If the headline was "California Regional Mutual Bank and Trust fails" (I made up the name, I don't know anything about banking, don't nitpick the terms) it surely would have still been newsworthy because of the size of the bank, but I suspect there would be less vitriol around the situation with the Silicon Valley connotation removed from it.
When a building company, building my house goes bust. The government doesn't step in to get someone to finish building it. When I order goods from a company and it goes bust, the government doesn't step in to ensure I get my goods.
First stock holders get wiped out (common then preferred), then debt holders (folks who have lent money to SVB won’t get their money back), only then would it hit depositors - and in the case of a traditional bank it usually wouldn’t hit them hard since most funds are FDIC insured.
I can imagine being incensed about stockholders and debt holders being made whole, if that were to happen - since then people would learn the wrong lesson here. But nobody think that’s going to happen.
If depositors aren’t protected, then it’s going to have a lot of downstream impacts (people won’t make payroll, and employees who have no responsibility won’t get paid). And again, it’s not like folks who chose were gambling with a shady bank to get high interest rates, in many ways SVB was considered the least risky and most conservative bank to use as a startup. At least that’s why we chose it.
I think the common sentiment is depositors should not get any more than whatever the remaining assets are worth.
And I think the prominent people asking the government to bailout depositors are worried about only getting 75% of their deposits back, because the remaining assets might not cover all of the deposits, or it might take a while to recover the deposits.
And that is what people are against.
the creditors then take a haircut. It's basic bankruptcy.
What people oppose is taxpayers absorbing the losses beyond $250 000 as promised, and there's a very good reason for this: its another example of privatizing profits and socializing losses. In other words, it encourages risky behavior because they're gambling with the house's money.
Some argue, and they have an excellent point that if SVB's creditors aren't bailed out it could trigger a contagion. Thats a formidable risk. However, we already did mass banking sector bailout less than 15 years ago and it turns out all it did was incentivize irresponsible behavior.
Easy, pay out $250K per account, then distribute the rest pro rata based upon closing balance from when the fed's took over. If they have to wait because assets need to be liquidated then sucks to be them. I'm sure they can get their money faster if they agree to a haircut.
> “This is a bailout”. It would be if shareholders were to get their money back, which doesn’t seem likely. The government will use the bank assets to make customers, not owners, whole.
Money to depositors for amounts greater than $250K is a bail out. They have no right to that money from the Feds.
> Generic screeching against the tech world. I get the schaudenfreude, but this will not hurt big tech and VCs as much as tens of thousands of small businesses, and the people employed at them. Some billionaires will be upset at some relatively insignificant losses, while hundreds of thousands may lose their jobs.
On the flip side, there's nothing special about many of the customers being small businesses, or startups, or big businesses, or really anything else. There's established rules for FDIC insurance and that's what we should be following.
The last I saw from Moody's was they're expecting "eighty-something" percent recovery rate, assuming no bailout or rule flexibility and no last minute forced merger.
This isn't like FTX where all the money is gone and ha ha you're not getting a penny of it back, ever. The SVB situation is a hyper regulated industry and the regulators flipped out when the asset ratio dropped below 95% or something like that, and as such, there will be inevitable expenses of a total shutdown, so figure everyone below $250K gets 100% back via insurance and everyone else gets $250K plus whatever was above $250K paid out at probably around eighty five percent when its all said and done (this is a guess although Moody's usually isn't all that wrong).
Historically when smaller banks collapsed (my hometown bank for example back in '08) the regulators semi-forcibly merge the small bank into a large bank and there's zero loss, you're just magically now a customer of some out of town megabank. The big bank eats the loss in a wink-and-nod agreement where the big bank gets some future favorable regulatory treatment in exchange, semi-informally. The problem with SVB is it is, or was, huge. So finding a huger bank to merge with will be tricky to impossible. Which was kind of the point of regulation intended to keep competition higher by making lots of small banks instead of few large ones.
The worst case outcome according to the last I saw from Moodys was big depositors will take maybe a fifteen percent haircut over $250K. The propaganda claims, of course, that all the money is gone and its 1933 again on Monday morning and the usual workers of the world unite stuff. But its not really THAT bad.
Idle speculation I've seen in chats that the solution to SVB being way too f-ing huge to merge with anyone is a forcible separation followed by a forcible multi-merge. So each 1/4 of you will be new customers with 100% rate of return of JP, BoA, Citi, and WF respectively. (off the top of my head those are the four largest banks by assets, I could be wrong) This is just internet chat nonsense I wouldn't plan on it. Although it is an innovative solution to having a "too big to fail" bank failure.
There's some of this, for sure. But there's an equivalent screeching from the tech finance world[1] demanding a full government guarantee. That ain't happening, and I think it's appropriate for the fed to make that clear.
FWIW: the dirty secret here is likely that there's a bunch of internal dealing going on as regards SVB. They were The Startup Bank for some reason, it's not random. And my guess is that we'll discover that a whole lot of big venture players turn out to be extremely exposed[2] to an SVB failure. A lot of VCs are probably losing their shirts here.
[1] Jason Calacanis's caps lock has been stuck down since Friday.
[2] Or worse. Genuine fraud has turned up in previous FDIC seizures. But no evidence exists right now.
It's good for those "businesses" if VC and Big Tech are unharmed because were it not for VC investment and Big Tech acquisitions, these "companies" would have no money to pay the people who "work" at them.
Legitimate businesses that can pay employees from revenues and generate profits are generally not SVB's customers. They can use normal banks.
Arguably a "job" that depends on interest rates being "zero" and investors writing checks cover payroll is not something anyone should be relying on longterm.
"Generic screeching against the tech world" is a red herring. Perhaps it is easy for "tech" companies to dish out hype but difficult for them to accept any negative commentary. The question that must be considered is whether the "tech" company's so-called "business model" really is one. Arguably these "companies" never had a successful business model and never found one, if they remain reliant on VC, SVB and Big Tech. Intermediaries, surveillance, data collection, advertising services, all purely parasitic activity. If this is not something the world really needs and is willing to pay for, entities like SVB and their customers will burn out or fade away.
Big Tech fans commenting on HN have used the phrase, "The market has spoken" in the past to foreclose any debate on the merits of the so-called "tech" industry. Well, here the market is speaking.
if you buy an expensive house or car you generally pay a lot more to insure that asset. not sure why people don’t think of buying insurance on their bank deposits in the same way if you find yourself in a situation where you need to hold much more than $250k in one account for whatever reason.
But even if you’re an individual holding million in cash (and for whatever reason it is not invested), it isn’t exactly difficult to open 10 checking + savings accounts and putting $250k each. In fact that is the prudent thing to do.
The issue here is not about whether the government should seize SVB assets rather than return them to depositors. Hopefully no one is arguing for that.
(The issue is about what the government should do -- if anything -- about (1) shortfalls depositors may face; (2) delays depositors may face in accessing the funds that do remain.)
The reason SVB is in receivership is because they don't actually have the ability to make all their depositors whole. Any scenario where uninsured depositors end up with all their money back is likely to be a bailout.
what we are saying is this should ONLY use the assets SVB has. Nothing more.
I’m not sure why y’all keep making a strawman to fight this.
1) anything beyond 250k is a known risk, you should’ve spread the money around.
2) why should tax payers be on the hook for more than the 250k amount? The companies took the risk and lost.
But if everyone spread their money around and kept each account less than 250k. Then in effect isn’t everyone insured for everything anyways?
Imagine there is a service that seamlessly took your total amount and spread it between various accounts for you to keep each account balance less than 250k. Now the totality of bank deposits are in effect all 100% insured. How is this now different from insuring all deposits regardless of size besides adding a middleman?
Depositors will get their insured money on monday. The FDIC will then dispose of all the banks assets and return the proceeds to its creditors, that is depositors.
Calling for the government to guarantee all deposits unconditionally is exactly calling for a bailout. Calling for the government to follow it's own laws and procedures as usual is redundant.
People implying other things probably don't really understand how banks work.
There’s a procedure to handle this, including dispersing the assets:
“The FDIC will pay uninsured depositors an advance dividend within the next week. Uninsured depositors will receive a receivership certificate for the remaining amount of their uninsured funds. As the FDIC sells the assets of Silicon Valley Bank, future dividend payments may be made to uninsured depositors.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/11/silicon-val...
The VCs whose money those startups are built upon, have connections to this bank. This entire back acted like some VC venture, with explicit design of taking the risk of zero return.
0 dollars should be given to depositors. Absolutely zero. These griefters learned how to use the common people as meat shields. It's the CFO of Lehman brothers. Let the VCs who supported this lose their investments and be forced to raise money now. If those businesses are worth something, investors will buy them. Let the VCs who gave bad advice be wiped clean from the investment. Their choices led to this.
I thought the argument some were making is that depositors should be guaranteed up to $250k and then get a proportionate share of whatever’s left (which is not zero!)
From the broader public's perception, you're splitting hairs. The gov - at taxpayer's expense - *are* ______ing* depositors with deposits over $250k. Depositors who are well aware of the limits of what's covered. Depositors with more advisors than most taxpayers have bank accounts.
Capable and well educated people made poor decisions. Why is The Nanny State the solution? Again??
* call it what you want, but it's special treatment of the very well to do.
1. There should be no bailout.
2. The bank had a ton of assets and those assets still belong to the depositors.
3. The depositors shouldn't necessarily be made whole beyond their $250,000 insured amount, but denying them the bank deposits is also wrong. Getting 80 cents on the dollar for their deposits seems completely fine for example, or whatever that number turns out to be based on remaining assets.
4. Nothing is deserved to the bank owners/shareholders. If there happens to be more assets than there was deposits, then this money can go to owners/shareholders.
I notice several articles and threads derailing into conflations of semantic arguments around what a bailout is with specifics of the topic.
This is a trend (and, I suspect, tactic) on other topics and it only serves polarization. Try to not fall into this trap. It can be possible to call it out in a way which does not further derail the conversation.
(Saying it's a trend does not mean it's merely a recent thing BTW)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivocation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essentially_contested_concept
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persuasive_definition
Whether the statement "this is a bailout" is true or not is actually irrelevant.
If the tech community reaction was "wow, this sucks, we're going to have to manage a lot of crap" the general reaction would be very sympathetic.
But when the consensus position is "gimme money to cover my mistake", I have to say "no" rather than "geez, that's terrible".
"No bailouts!"
Nobody has been (seriously) talking about them. Shareholders in SVB are toast 100%. Debtors too probably.
"We should nationalize banks that fail!"
That's basically what receivership is. We just don't call it nationalizing because the government just wants to make depositors whole and then get their hands out of the pie.
"We need more (or less) regulation!"
The FDIC stepping in right now - where it appears the bank is solvent but can't satisfy liquidity requirements - is exactly when it should. SVB as a business failed but (it appears) depositors are being made whole by the sale of the banks assets. The system appears to have worked while also not cutting the bank prematurely (nobody seems to be complaining that SVB wasnt in major trouble).
Yes this is exactly what I support should happen. The remaining assets can of course be used towards depositors (even beyond $250k FDIC insure). But beyond that, tough luck. In our American systems thousands, millions of people and small businesses fail and the answer is "tough luck". Their failure is too small for anyone to care. But when big banks fail government helps them, which is how this is seen as. If you have more than $250k in a bank account sitting somewhere, you're objective not destitute and you objectively do not need tax money to help you out any further. So, yes "tough luck".
This is not depositors fault, but it's also not tax payers fault. A bailout is a bailout. If depositors are bailed out, it is still a bailout.
To me such statements feel like - either you are with me or against the humanity. Of course, the government should not gobble the money that belongs to the depositors and the fund should be distributed fairly to the depositors post liquidation. But making whole the deposits through the tax payers money will not be right. This is a business failure and what is insured is only what is guaranteed to be paid back. That is the risk business take when they engage in such transactions.
Individuals who had more than $250k sitting in bank account must be well-off and prudent enough to decipher the FDIC insurance limit.
My understanding of what I’ve seen people mention is that depositors shouldn’t get more than the insured 250k from the FDIC insurance fund, not that bank assets shouldn’t be used to make depositors whole.
This sentiment doesn’t come out of nowhere. There have been a few panicked and very angry VCs on social media effectively calling for an immediate and retroactive increase in the limit for FDIC-insured funds.
Essentially there are some folks that want the government to step in to make depositors whole will leaving bank assets to be divvied up to make investors whole.
Some folks see this crisis and immediately jump to “how can I take maximum personal advantage?” It is those people that are creating confusion and pushback wrt the FDIC’s involvement here.
Commentator can only rail against "the tech world" in this instance if they've failed to grasp that supporting large depositor here this isn't a tech world issue but a financial system issue. And that goes with a generally decline in how knowledgeable the average HN commentator is.
At this point, large bank deposits are implicitly guaranteed and if one pulls that away, the world's financial system would likely fall apart. You can argue this system is terrible and talk about how to change but no one who knows the impact of this stuff want "1929 on steroids" and neither is anyone with power going to implement it.
FDIC pays out the $250,000 insurance to SVB depositor accounts. FDIC recoups those costs from the SVB assets, and then pays out depositor account holders as much % as possible from liquidating the remaining SVB assets. It sounds like the latter will be disbursed in several increments as the assets are liquidated. All of that assuming no buyer by Monday.
If there is anything left after depositors are made while, then that might go to shareholders.
Did the depositors (we're talking companies here) not know that the FDIC limit was $250K? If they did, why didn't they hedge accordingly by opening accounts at other banks? Was this not an unreasonable expectation of a company to do?
If I did the same thing, would I expect the government to cover the difference between the asset sale value and the insured amount?
On the other hand, if the bank had sufficient assets to make their depositors whole, how did they fail in the first place?
Except shareholders suffered massive or total losses in 2008, such as AIG or Washington Mutual, despite it being a bailout. A bailout means all depositors are made whole, not the shareholders.
It's a the perfect opportunity to be angry at a group; in this case "tech bros", VCs, and anyone attached to Silicon Valley. Hey, it is right there in the name of the bank!
The usual suspects have been trying to frame it in terms of the regular old startup workers that will be affected.
But what about these entrepreneurs, the taxi drivers who were completely fucked by the onslaught of Uber and Lyft using financial engineering to lose money on each ride and undercut their livelihood:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/23/nyregion/nyc-taxi-suicide...
Or these ones, who saw VC funded delivery services stealing their tips:
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/why-instacart...
And so on. We would also like to see social media held accountable for the harms done to children and communities and for our existing laws against anti-competitive behavior and collusion to be enforced against search and software platforms.
The chutzpah of the Silicon Valley influencer crowd over this weekend has become seriously fucking unbearable. My feeds are full of sociopathic libertarians calling for government to make sure they never suffer any consequences for their failure to adequately manage risk?
Many of the people expressing this frustration are in favor of having the government heavily involved in preventing this kind of thing and helping if it ends up happening.
But if we’re going to regulate let’s fucking regulate.
To the tech people unhappy with screeching my reply is that there is nothing special about your humanity here. Your lives aren’t more important than the lives of the children of employees at the Carrier plant in Indianapolis, or the workers at the Amazon faculty on Staten Island.
If your values system only applies to you and your friends it’s not much of a values system.
Move fast and break things, banking edition. Can I sign something somewhere to opt out of responsibility for these kind of things?
This is why direct democracy can't work for long. The average voter has a hazy and sometimes downright broken model of reality. I don't know how else to describe someone who wants to get back at Facebook by ganking the paycheck of some engineer at a 10 person startup.
The majority of people in the world don't have those connections or opportunities, so there's definitely hate.
No one seriously thinks there’s only $250K/client available. People are saying the same thing you are, just gleefully.
If depositors see strong signs of support they won’t run. They may very well be saving other banks without even having to deal with them with this move. No bank can survive a bank run beyond a certain point.
It would be a bailout of SVB shareholders if shareholders got their money back. But its a bailout of someone in any case.
Framing bailout with a different word like 'make whole' does not make it not a bailout. The bank played with those people's deposits and screwed it up. Rescuing all the deposits would just exonerate the bank of all its wrongdoing and set a bad precedent. "There are no repercussions for bad business management".
Per capitalist philosophy, the bank should sink, along with whatever deposit was in there - "Buyer beware". If you dont agree with that principle, it means that you are not subscribing to capitalism, but to social democracy in which capitalist principles are overridden by socialist principles to protect the public. And the moment you go that way, you open the door for questioning a lot of the setup that rules the modern economy.
The entire business world could use a hard lesson here
Ironically most small to mid non tech businesses will be just fine.
“This is a bailout”. It would be if shareholders were to get their money back, which doesn’t seem likely. The government will use the bank assets to make customers, not owners, whole.
If the bank had sufficient assets to make all depositors whole the FDIC wouldn’t have stepped in. It doesn’t.
I assume, then, you agree uninsured deposits ought to take a haircut proportional to the shortfall?
If so, you have the same position as all the “salty” posters.
But when it comes to depositors, I think it makes a lot of sense to make them whole, especially in the case of SVB where the bank likely has pretty close to enough assets to cover the liabilities (deposits), but its tied up in such long term investments that it could take a long time to get it out.
But moreso, when we invest in companies, we deep down know there is a possibility of the investment going to 0. We often don't think when I put money in a bank it can go belly up, this would obviously hurt the trust in our banking environment if depositors not made whole.
Also the term "too big to fail" comes to mind. Isolated risk vs systemic risk. Which one is it now? We can have opinions but Yellen may have more informed data about the gravity of the situation. It does make sense for governments to intervene in systemic risks such as this and covid.
It makes sense that they’ll make depositors whole before even thinking about the rest. From the top of that page:
“ All depositors will have full access to their insured deposits no later than Monday morning, March 13, 2023. The FDIC will pay uninsured depositors an advance dividend within the next week. Uninsured depositors will receive a receivership certificate for the remaining amount of their uninsured funds. As the FDIC sells the assets of Silicon Valley Bank, future dividend payments may be made to uninsured depositors.”
It’s almost certainly not going to come to that in this case as the normal fdic playbook will work but the federal government has a history of taking action when extraordinary bank failures happen.
https://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/will-fdic-keep-protec...
Yes. Anything else?
You let one bank collapse, OK. If the collapse causes other banks to collapse then it's bad. When WalMart, Costco can't transfer money to fill shelves, people go hungry. When people can't get their wages, they go hungry.
I’m not sure exactly what Yellen is proposing (I only subscribe to print FT so no access), but it seems like special treatment for the well connected on Sandhill Road.
If it's a question of rigid legality that also doesn't make sense to me, because from what I remember from 2008 was the government's legal options were incredibly widespread.
The FDIC amount is a minimum, not a maximum.
But I agree, college loans should not be forgiven past what is legally available ($0).
Also, you are talking about a major banking collapse if people start thinking that their deposits aren't safe. (a lot of people will start pulling money, even if under 250k). There are so many irrational people out there...
edit: I guess somewhere in what I said was confusing, I was referring to past fails where most deposits were likely well under the 250k. NOT SVB where the vast majority were well above that threshold.
Funny how language is being used to frame all this. For depositors it's made whole, not bailed out, when of course it's no less a bail out.
And because we're not really bailing out depositors. The FDIC is just doing its best to make sure depositors take precedence over bank shareholders, which is as it should be.
Sure, you could let Roku lose a half billion dollars, but it's not their fault SVB couldn't meet its obligations. They didn't invest in the bank. Placing your money in a bank should not be a gamble.
When you purchase stock in a bank, there is a reasonable expectation that your investment could lose value.
When you deposit money with a bank (in the United States in 2023), you basically never consider the possibility that you might not get it all back.
You can certainly argue that the expectation isn't fair, but I'm pretty confident it's nearly universal.
The insured amount is absolutely guaranteed. However, it's still standard for a failed bank to make it's depositors whole.
I don't have sources, but data I've seen indicates of the nearly 600 bank failures since 2000, few, if any, have resulted in a loss of deposits.
----
Put another way. Most employees don't have contractual obligations to receive severance. However, it's culturally expected that businesses performing layoffs will offer severance. Those who don't risk people not coming to work for them.\
Same situation in the US. The USD and it's banking system is seen as incredibly stable and robust. When chinks start to form, it raises concern and people might start looking to bank in other currencies.
The quote in the rather short article is:
> “But we are concerned about depositors, and we’re focused on trying to meet their needs.”
I don't think "trying to meet their needs" is the same as ensuring they will "be made whole".
The biggest issues around people with uninsured accounts (the vast majority) is both how much and how long. This will be a mess if either the amount is significantly less than "whole" or if the time to be made whole takes months not days.
If anybody gets an extra penny more than $250K from the Feds than that is by definition a bailout.
> But moreso, when we invest in companies, we deep down know there is a possibility of the investment going to 0. We often don't think when I put money in a bank it can go belly up, this would obviously hurt the trust in our banking environment if depositors not made whole.
FDIC insurance is not infinite. Not understanding that is no fault of the rest of society.
And who knows what perks, direct or indirect, those depositors were getting for having that cash at SVB?
Whether it’s stupidity or greed doesn’t matter. No hand outs.
Let’s think about the risk of “morale hazard” in these case: Bail out the shareholders: we can throw more money into the stock and never lose money! Risk free returns, I better pump this bubble up! Bail out depositors: I feel safe having my money in a reputable bank! I can operate my business and pay vendors/employees, I can keep doing my job without interruption.
Bailing out one group makes them greedy, bailing out the other makes them productive.
This is not old testament judgement, this is a financial war and our gov has to use every appropriate tool to fight it.
I think we should really not forget that SVB hit duration risk on their assets that is almost definitionally not an issue for the FDIC. This isn’t “bank fell apart due to bad loans” this is “bank fell apart because money is locked away for 10 years but is basically guaranteed”.
Basically no risk to taxpayers!
I think this is naive. The FDIC or some government entity is in a pretty reasonable position to take on the longer duration assets that appear to have brought down SVB. If they hold those assets to maturity then everything is fine, and they can return deposits today if necessary because they don't need to sell assets to generate cash.
I hope you realize FDIC insurance isn’t even guaranteed to be $250k. The FDIC is funded by member fees and can only cover a very small amount of “insured” losses. If it goes beyond that, depositors would need a bailout.
If all depositors are made whole at no cost to them then there is no incentive to avoid a repeat.
Remember that those depositors are not random members in the public, their are insiders of the SV microcosm.
Why in 2023 after other similar events is this special?
Accounts are insured to the specifed limit. That applies to all of us. Full stop.
What (read: who) makes this a special case in need of special treatment?
Whatever the government decides to do, this makes the VC and startup industry look really weak and entitled, and knocks them down from risk takers building the future to the same status as a bunch of bankers looking for a handout.
There was an opportunity here for VCs with lots of clout, YC included, to come up with a private solution to backstop this. It would have shown independence, maturity, and that more government oversight and intervention is not needed. That adults can take care of themselves.
Instead they went whining to the government, made a petition, tweeted sadly, and whatever else. It's unbecoming of an industry that's supposed to be scrappy and have an appetite for risk.
We can talk about a depositor bailout if you want, but let’s not pretend it’s the same thing, not pretend it’s what the term “bailout” commonly refers to.
What Is A Bailout?
A bailout is when a business, an individual, or a government provides money and/or resources (also known as a capital injection) to a failing company. These actions help to prevent the consequences of that business's potential downfall which may include bankruptcy and default on its financial obligations.
All the major English dictionaries, and Wikipedia will tell you same thing.To call this action anything other than "bailout" is to mince words, plain and simple.
In terms of discussing risk, startups should minimize all risks possible because their core risk is to find a business model and product that works. Putting cash into a bank account isn't a "strategy" nor is it an investment. Much like choosing to incorporate in Delaware, it's something you do because it's standard and adds no unnecessary risk to the business. It's not smart to try to get fancy with boilerplate company things–you have enough risk already.
Anyway, at the core of your argument seems to be two beliefs: 1. VCs had the capability to stop this from happening with private means (no) 2. People who start companies or work at them just generally deserve bad things to happen to them, regardless of how proximal or not the causes are of their misfortune.
I am biased because I've sacrificed years of my life and probably the vast majority of my potential earnings to try to build a good business. It's been the hardest thing I've ever done, no one's impressed by it, it's not yielded any financial benefits, it's harmed my personal and social life, and by all likelihood I'll never see any significant success. But I keep trying because I like our customers and my coworkers and I care more about the possibility of building something great than I do all the rest.
It's hurtful to chalk up the (potential) death of companies like mine to being "weak and entitled". Of all the risks to account for in building a business, having our bank accounts disappear overnight didn't even crack the top 100 of risk factors. Things like losing customers, failing to grow revenue, keeping employees happy, etc. are at the top; below that are changes to the market, competition, and the death of co-founders or myself. It's not possible to account for every conceivable risk.
Anyway, it looks like we'll get some help here so it's not over for us yet. On behalf of companies everywhere, I'd like to apologize that you've been deprived the opportunity to dance on our graves.
Was this decision public and announced in a regulatory filing?
Right or wrong sometimes your own maturity gets called into question by the words you use and how you treat others who disagree.
Idk why I'm even bothering making an argument when your opening argument is ad hominem.
Dignity and an empty sack are worth the sack.
Interesting new world folks are suggesting here, where depositors can't trust the highly regulated banks they bank with.
I'm personally a conservative investor, which means amongst other things I forgo notional returns by making safer investments. So it definitely makes my angry to see people that had a less responsible money management strategy get to participate in all the upside and not have to take the downside.
If you want the backstop if the government you have to be willing to play within its rules during the good times too
No one is nor can argue that. But you’re presupposing it’s a bailout.
It's like all of the tech misbehavior packaged neatly up into one story.
So no, if the government and the fed would actually let the market set interest rates then this doesn’t happen. If the UST had to sell bonds at the real market rate for them then this doesn’t happen.
Stepping in to smooth out systemic problems is another valid function— like Reagan did with the air traffic controllers, like the FDIC does with bank failures, etc.
Anyway, I don’t think folks are asking for a handout. They’re just asking the FDIC to do their jobs more quickly than usual because so many businesses are tied up here. This is the reason there is an FDIC in the first place. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to ask them to smooth the process out to help meet payroll. None of this requires handouts— just proper management and metering out of the assets under consideration.
If you had >250k in SVB and you managed to get it out before it was shut down, you'd be pretty happy with yourself right now. If you run a business and have an obligation to share-holders, it would be negligent not to try this at least.
Individual depositors don't need to conspire to reach the conclusion that in a bank run scenario, it is virtually always in each depositor's own best interest to withdraw their money.
When and how much money is returned is going to make the difference between life and death for some of these companies. And the difference between having a job and healthcare or not for a lot of people.
Don’t forget that this is happening to depositors / companies after weathering a pandemic and in a really shitty economies where things are already very challenging. Having additional cash flow problems and/or additional debt to service all the sudden may be the proverbial straw that sends companies and people into bankruptcy.
Shareholders lose 100%, depositors get 100% of their deposits back. It's a simple situation, and the former point (as opposed to the solution during the GFC) counteracts moral hazard.
Edit: I read the article. Yellen says "“But we are concerned about depositors, and we’re focused on trying to meet their needs.”
She says NOTHING about depositors getting 100% back. It could be that they get the share of deposits back faster.
Making all depositors completely whole is not insurance. That was not a risk that premiums were paid for. It’s a government bailout.
Please leave me and my tax dollars out of it. I'm not just hard-hearted, BTW. Unlimited depositor insurance is an awful idea.
Deal?
Honest question: why? I.e. why can't the capitalists invested in this business absorb the reasonable haircut? (I assume it's "reasonable" based on the information we have been provided with until now). Depositors (especially those holding more than 250k) were also investors, they were getting back more money than they had put in.
Keep in mind those loans are largely being paid by SVB customers that are very likely scrambling to make sure they can pay their employees right now.
It’s pretty assured that more SVB loans will be defaulting in the coming weeks than if their depositors didn’t lose access to about half of their money.
Disruption is great. Too bad for the music industry. Too bad for journalism. Too bad for legacy taxi services, etc. Disruption is great, except when it happens to you?
Aren't we all here in the business of managing risk? Or, after a decade of cheap money, has it just become all lip service?
"It's not my fault!" [1]
This recession is going to be brutal, but it's been a long time coming. Thank God money is going to start having value again.
[1] https://y.yarn.co/9c4c1fa3-fb64-4132-b44f-7cde70eafd0f_text....
Having been a bank for 40 years with a great reputation, no one who held their money there expected a meaningful risk the bank would collapse. The same with AIG and any other major bank collapse for a long time player. Sure let those responsible have repercussions, but innocent account holders of America’s future trillions of GDP, investment funds holding onto the money of pension accounts, farmers and wineries shouldn’t bear the brunt of investments gone sour leading to a liquidity crunch.
Note that 3 VCs taking out their cash quickly allowed the bottom to fall out.
I'm more commenting on how the the general attitude of the tech entrepreneur (willing to take risks, to swing and miss, move fast and break things) has been cross pollinated over to the finance (DeFi, VC tech funds, crypto affiliated banks) to largely disastrous (but not wholly unexpected) results.
What really bothers me is that these "financial geniuses" walk and talk (and in the case of SBF dress) like typical typical tech entrepreneurs, but when push comes to shove they are just the same old reckless wall street sociopaths trying to privatize profits and socialize the losses.
Your classic tech entrepreneur had skin in the game, was willing to swing and miss, learn from their mistakes, and get up and try again. In a forum that claims to be full of "real" true-scotsman tech entrepreneurs, there seem to be a lot of people here that think/talk like wall street sociopaths.
I feel like the last 5-10 years are full of more and more of these "jumped the shark" moments in the tech space (Theranos, WeWork etc). Innovation is dead. Low hanging fruit all picked. In it's place is a new priesthood, full of grifters who preach innovation while robbing us blind and getting bailed out.
To your point about "40 year stable banks", yeah it really sucks that normal people are caught up in this mess. But something tells me that what happened at this bank is unique to the tech/disruption space/narrative I mention above.
Personally I believe the contagion will be limited to poorly run banks making bad/reckless decisions. I guess the next few days/weeks we'll know for sure if this is a limited thing, or a widespread problem.
I sure hope people go to jail over this.
The truth is that the vast majority of this cash was dry powder for acquisitions, staying liquid for new new investments, fresh VC money for advertising.
Isn’t it these same folks who remind us all the time that most startups fail? Why bail out an entire bank when 99% of its startup depositors wouldn’t have made it anyway?
If anything, taxpayers should be able to sit at the front of a new cap table with preferred position, like any other entity providing a bridge. But at that idea, I am sure they’d warn of government interference.
Any sources for this? This seems like an opinion with nothing backing it up.
> Isn’t it these same folks who remind us all the time that most startups fail?
There is a big difference between a single startup being able to fail at any time and many of them failing all at once.
They weren’t calling for a bailout of SVB. They were calling for protection of depositors, which is what Yellen is trying to make happen.
Ackman: "What should the FDIC do? @FDICgov to guarantee all bank deposits by Sunday night before Asia open and call a time out. Run a process to recapitalize @SVB_Financial while managing liquidation of UST and MBS portfolios ... Equity holders pre-recap are wiped out, bond holders are protected." [1]
Cuban: "The Fed should IMMEDIATELY buy all the securities/debt the bank owns at near par, which should be enough to cover most deposits. Any losses paid for in equity and new debt from the new bank or whoever buys it. The Fed knew this was a risk. They should own it" [2]
In a following tweet, Cuban claimed "this isn't a bailout" [3]. Their tweets, like many of the comments here, seem to be arguing the semantics of a "bailout". However, both Ackman and Cuban are calling for financial assistance from the Fed, which is absolutely a bailout, if only "partial".
[1] https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1634694924707807236
? The truth is that the vast majority of this cash was dry powder for acquisitions, staying liquid for new new investments, fresh VC money for advertising.
You seem confused. The "cash" you're talking about here is the deposited cash, which Yellen is saying will get funded. I think you're confusing that with bank equity.
They literally cannot afford to pay people on Monday if their deposits are not returned.
Secondly people are conflating bailing out depositors with bailing out SVB. The bank took all the risk and had all the gains. The depositors did not have anything to gain here besides keeping their money safe. The depositors picked a reputable bank that has been around for 40 years. Their business should not fail because the failure in the bank and the government regulation.
Edit: The ones who are hurting the most are not the VC's startup who told their startups to take their money out. It is those who didn't contribute to this problem. The depositors that didn't want to cause a bank run is the ones that will be hurt most.
The real solution is that VCs should give a loan to all their startups so that they can make payroll. Isn’t that their value-add? They should be the backstop for their investments. But instead they want the government to step in.
It’s another example of “socialize the losses but privatize the gains.”
If the Fed came out and said "We have reviewed all the depositors and their situations and we are funding 100% of payroll and basic operating costs needs for the next 90 days" The VCs would immediately come up with another reason why ALL depositors need to be made whole immediately.
Long term solution is imo obvious as well: decouple deposits and lending business. You should pay for having your money in a bank and being able to conveniently operate it. The bank should not do any businesses with the money (maybe something like buying government T-bills should be permitted) and profit purely from providing services: safety, transfers, payments.
Loan making should be a separate industry. Gather capital, fulfill regulation and do business as it is today but not with deposits but with stakeholders capital.
In such a setup there is little systemic risk: bank goes bust? Shareholders lose the money. No moral hazard of "I will deposit in this risky bank and the government bails me out if things go sour".
Want to keep liquid assets conveniently? Pay for it. Want to invest in a loan making operation? Buy shares in a bank and accept the risk.
The current system forces depositors to accept risks of loan making business just because they need a place to keep liquid assets. It's not like they were asked a question: "hey, do you want us to risk your money or do you prefer to pay for operational costs of your account but we keep the money safe?". If the question was asked then it would be very easy to say no to any kind of bailout.
“But we are concerned about depositors, and we’re focused on trying to meet their needs.”
SIVB is 100% at risk of bankruptcy/collapse. Saving SIVB would be a bailout for sure.
Up to $250k per depositor isn’t a bailout. A penny above that is.
Some startups like Circle with large backers will survive, but others on the other hand need more than a miracle or a hero.
I would not want to see the chaos underneath in bookface right now and certainly the collapse with in less than 24 hours.
SVB was a financial institution outside of that sector which catered to that class of customer and regrettably took on risks that made them exceptionally vulnerable to interest rate increases. Add that with their clients mostly having uninsured deposits and belonging to one industry, and we're in this mess.
Im not sure how this is evidence of a tech or vc pyramid scheme, it's just a regrettable series of choices by a financial institution.
It doesn't cost much to have a few month's (or even just a few weeks) worth of money at a second backup bank, but it could be a lifeline in the case of your primary bank going belly up.
And while most of the time they can make good on it, sometimes the investments they make with your money are risky, short sighted, or just unlucky.
In any case, don’t put yourself into jeopardy by not having other options.
But what we see is both coasts gambling with low interest rate money, getting rich off of fee leaching, and, when the gravy train slows down, causing a financial meltdown within 15 years of each other.
Don't kid yourselves. The tech boom was largely low interest rate fueled and, for many of your companies, a mirage.
Is it just because the friction of starting a non-physical business is so much lower? I'm not quite satisfied with that as an explanation, because that provides a competitive advantage to tech vs other industries regardless of interest rate levels.
- helping FDIC insured, helping businesses with a few million in deposits that want to hit payroll, VCs, and “billionaires” - rich people’s funds
- a bailout (using taxpayer funds) vs receivership to make depositors whole as possible
- a bailout of the bank itself (aka 2008). Bailout of the depositors. Just trying to prioritize business deposits over other depositors, etc
I suspect a lot of emotional disagreement is really more about not understanding what each other is really saying than anything else.
> “The state guarantees private deposits in Germany,” Finance Ministry spokesman Torsten Albig said. A second ministry spokesman said the guarantee was unlimited.
https://www.reuters.com/article/financial-germany-deposits-i...
Of course, the UK banks are obeying Basel III, whereas SVB had fought hard not to be obliged to obey similar US rules because they're less risky (and thus, less profitable when things go well...). Obviously the liquidity protections in Basel III wouldn't be enough to prevent a run this huge from overwhelming the bank, but the capital requirements may well have meant depositors were less likely to begin such a run, and would also surely make it easier to successfully liquidate the bank if that became necessary.
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3.htm
One reason to pay depositors (not shareholders, fuck 'em) is to shore up confidence in other banks. If I know I will get my money anyway, when I hear Local Bank might be fucked, there's less rush to withdraw my money, thus less risk of a run on Local Bank, thus they are less likely to actually fail. This is why FDIC exists, and why functionally similar (though very different mechanically) schemes exist in many developed countries.
If the US feels obliged to give SVB depositors their money anyway, the lesson is that you can't afford to have banks which will be so vulnerable, they all need to obey Basel III or equivalent (perhaps even more stringent) rules locally.
The headline is misleading and much of the discussion I’m seeing is based on that. Looking at the quote, there’s no mention of whether or not depositors will be bailed out.
The FDIC should take on the bills and loans, and pay out the cash now. They will collect the entire balance eventually and they have the benefit of time and I imagine they’re authorised to hold assets like this long-term (or do a cash swap with the fed, they have plenty of long term bonds what’s another $100B). I have always assumed this is what the whole point of the FDIC and similar schemes in other countries. They foot the bill immediately and then spend time fixing up the mess but eventually reclaim it all back. It’s a bit like if you’re not at fault for an accident - the insurer pays you out now and then they deal with the at-fault driver and you’re not involved in that process afterwards in most cases.
According to the press release, SVB had $206B in assets and $176B in deposits. The math is simple: everyone should get their money back. There may even be some money left over for investors.
Having $1M in 10 years is the same as having $680k today, as you could buy 10Y treasuries that will pay out $1M
So saying "The FDIC should take on the bills and loans, and pay out the cash now. They will collect the entire balance eventually" is the same as saying "They have lost 30% of depositors money but FDIC should pay that 30% out of their own pocket"
Those numbers are from December 2022. They had $161B in deposits prior to Thursday's $42B in withdrawals. And that $206B figure is somewhat fictional hold-to-maturity accounting. The $80B in 1.5% bonds aren't actually worth $80B at market prices.
They were shut down for being insolvent on Thursday ($950M in the hole). It's not just a liquidity problem.
They would never have been able to sell enough to not be able to cover their deposits - that’s when regulators stepped in.
CBS also has a transcript of the interview itself: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/janet-yellen-face-the-nation-tr...
It's technical help and the ability to temporarily ignore certain laws to expedite the process of migrating customers to a new banking platform.
For example, KYC laws might require a signature from every director of a company to open a bank account... But when migrating an account from SVB to another bank, the government might allow that requirement be ignored for 30 days.
Or the government might allow existing SVB computer software and technical systems to continue to operate in certain cases where migration to a new bank is technically a long process.
At the same time, I think a lot of the VCs who systematically talked shit about government regulations while trying to shill crypto as a solution should very publicly eat crow. I won't lie: it will give me a great deal of personal satisfaction, but, it will also make any "bailout" (or, whatever you want to call it ) a much easier lift politically.
In general, I think more due diligence is needed, even with a good reputation. (e.g. look into lobbying efforts. if they are lobbying for weakened rules, they may be violating/doing something illegitimate already a la FTX).
Enron was reputable, for example. Different situation, i know, but the point is reputation is great, due diligence is better (i don't know what good DD would be in the Enron case, perhaps the fact they pushed a 100% buy in would be one of many red flags, for example).
I do think workers should be paid, btw. However, the c-level team/s that made the choice to bank with SVB aught to lose out because it was their bet that tanked the company (or otherwise hurt it financially).
Tis are my admittedly outside/naïve perspective.
However, a fire sale is definitely not needed for all assets, and it seems likely given Yellen's comments that the government will provide some short term liquidity so that the fire sale of illiquid assets is not necessary (e.g. portions of their loan portfolio; their $7bn municipal bond portfolio; their $3.5bn of unmarketable securities (largely affordable housing projects...).
Honestly, in many ways the regulation worked. What our regulation didn't account for is that bank runs at the non-top 4 banks have become more likely in a interconnected world with "too big to fail" alternatives.
The $120bn FDIC Insurance Fund (self-funded by the banks and not the government) will definitively not even take a penny loss from this failure. That to me is the actual problem.
We are not protecting enough of the banking system with insurance. Should it be 100% of all deposits, probably not. Should it be up to $1mm or even $10mm per depositor, probably! Why should someone who sold their $750k family home yesterday be out any money just because they decided to deposit the money at their non systematically important bank? Or why should a non-profit that just completed their annual fundraising push for $1mm be out some of that money?
SVB "Fire Sale" Scenario Napkin Math
Note: Uses 12/31 numbers, but that should be largely inconsequential for determining the net liquidated cash value of a fire sale
$209bn assets
- $15.5bn HTM MTM + Slippage
- $7.5bn Loan Impairment + Slippage
- $2bn AFS Impairment + Slippage
- $1.5bn Non-Marketable Securities Impairment + Slippage
- $0.5bn Goodwill + Intangibles
- $0.5bn Property, Equipment, Lease & Other Asset Write Downs
- $0.5bn Wind Down Administration
$181bn Liquidated Cash
- $15bn FHLB "Super Lien"
$166bn Liquidated Cash Available to Depositors
- $7.6 Insured Domestic Deposits
- $151.5 Uninsured Domestic Deposits
- $13.9bn Foreign Deposits
$7.5bn Liquidated Cash Shortfall
I don't know if people realize but living in San Francisco and being at the helm of your own company with millions in equity funding is an extreme privilege.
Millions of things have to go right in order for that person to be in such position. That is the dream of many individuals who were not so lucky.
Now one thing goes wrong for them and there could be a turnover at the top, at least a shake-up, meaning other people will get to be in such extreme privileged position and the formerly privileged have to back down and go do something else instead. Something a bit less privileged.
Instead here comes daddy-government to ensure that everything is freezed in place with no shake up whatsoever.
Not to mention employees didn't have their savings in SVB so their net worth is not at risk, whereas it's the 'net worth' of the company which is at risk because it was all stored in SVB accounts.
We don’t need 1000 banks collapsing. Irresponsible fed and government need to own this and ensure deposits are safe. Selling everyone nearly 0 interest bonds and then jacking interest rates to the highest rates in 20 years over the course of 12 months is a scumbag move.
Current president is her protégé [2]
Greg Becker (SVB CEO & president) was in SF Fed board of directors [3]
"It's a big club, and you ain't in it."
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janet_Yellen
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_C._Daly
[2] https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ceo-failed-silicon-valley...
1. Open account at Fidelity 2. Purchase brokered CDs in denominations <$250K in a ladder matching your cash flow needs (you have a cash flow spreadsheet, don't you?)
https://www.fidelity.com/fixed-income-bonds/cds
It's not like the risk of banks was a secret. Click on the "Risks" tab at the link above -- it's near the top of the list.
This strategy works for raises of up to several million dollars. If you've raised more than that, spend a bit of money on someone to help you set up a treasury ladder, which scales to any size of raise.
This is effectively what you are hiring a bank to do for you, but with them determining over large sets of depositors what the cash flow needs are expected to be. The focus of your company isn’t building these investment instruments for your cash. Spending time on this is a distraction for most start ups.
Also seeing finance bro hot takes like, oh those companies took the risk and should have done due diligence on the bank. SIVB was given an investment grade rating by both Moody’s and Standard and Poor. What due diligence are founders scrambling to find product market fit supposed to do in their spare time that is somehow beyond those organizations?
I think it's a little insulting to assume these people just don't understand the system. I think you have to nearly totally politically ignorant to not understand why people would feel this way. I don't know how you don't see the irony of complaining that ex-McKinsey founders shouldn't have to do due diligence on their bank, but that 18 year olds "know what they signed up for" and should have known that student loans were un-bankruptable. Many of the VCs who are now going hat in hand to Yellen are the same who opposed any sort of socialization. Why wouldn't that cause resentment?
I am curious, though, as to whether or not this general ignorance is new, or if it’s just that I’ve become more aware of it over the years.
If the founders had put all their money in FTX because they figured they could get a better FTX checking account than SVB was offering, nobody would bat an eye at their failure.
The governance of Credit Unions tends to be very transparent, at least for the two that my family uses.
Seriously, you are promoting giving business to the major Wall Street banks? I would argue this is against your personal long term interests.
"WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that the federal government would not bail out Silicon Valley Bank, but is working to help depositors who are concerned about their money. ... "
by providing emotional support, therapy, free adderall and opportunity to buy some long term government bonds at a discount...
Which is ... everybody?
Resting in my armchair, I think they're trying to make deals with several other banks to absorb the SVB clientele. Maybe there's one bank that agrees to buy up a large chunk of the deposits and a couple smaller ones that participate as well. If there are multiple buyers, it spreads out risk and doesn't just give assets to a big big, and may help raise the price floor. The FDIC might cover the gap.
I don’t believe the FDIC has the legal authority to do so, but it’s highly possible that the treasury and/or Federal Reserve can cobble together some ad hoc legal justification.
The moment that the government guarantees or bails out deposits above the FDIC limit, taxpayers assume all risk over the entire banking sector and losses are socialized. That would be the official start of the end of free market economy.
There's a well traveled process to winding down a bank and recovering what is left for depositors. Let's not try to fix what isn't broken.
Now, the FDIC is attempting to sell SVB in order to pay its uninsured depositors. At the end of 2022, more than 90 percent of SVB’s $175 billion in deposits were uninsured by the federal agency.
So, even if we do learn lessons, don't expect them to last very long.
>The FDIC, which took over SVB on Friday, has sought bids from interested parties during the weekend. The regulator is looking for a bank that has the financial wherewithal and management expertise to handle Silicon Valley Bank’s assets and customers, but not one that is so large as to be considered “too big to fail,” these people said.
>That means large lenders like JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America likely aren’t in the running, the people said. Even some large regional banks could find it difficult to absorb Silicon Valley Bank, which was the 16th-largest U.S. lender as of the end of last year. There are concerns that doing so could intensify regulatory scrutiny, even if a lender were to “rescue” SVB in an emergency sale, the people said.
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/regional-banks-are-m...
Say we have 200K in checking and 200K in savings. Would we get 400K from FIDC or just 250K total?
Thanks
However you and your spouse each get $250K worth of insurance, so in this case it'll be $500K.
The US has spent the last 15 years printing money to bailout mortgage holders. So no one who has had a mortgage or sold a house since 2008 can complain about a bailout, since they have received one...
But I don't think the Fed engaging in QE constitutes a bailout.
Interesting to think about future rules -- would they limit the 100% guarantee to banks who pass the >$250B protections thst SVB lobbied to remove for $50B-$250B banks?
Doing your best to make depositors whole (maybe not 100%, but as much as possible) is not a bailout ala 2008. It’s generally not very controversial financial policy that prevents a financial contagion like 1929.
No 10 person company is going to split their 2.5 mil 10 ways to get insurance. And they’re not going to have the sophistication to manage that. Nor do we want to force small businesses to keep cash under mattresses or have to evaluate a banks balance sheet.
If you want to think of a bank account in those terms, then you expect a radically different financial system. Which is fine, but don’t expect such a system to exist in our lifetimes, or during the current crisis.
A law was put in place in 1933 with a limit. If it didn’t have a limit, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
Where were all these billionaires and VCs any time prior to this calling for uncapped FDIC insurance? This is special pleading.
This is a service banks provide transparently. Not sure how much paperwork is required, probably could be optimized to a couple of clicks.
Even if these bonds are purchased using SVB brokerage account.
1) why are the feds claiming they are going to 'help' depositors? isn't it more, like, no, you're just going to do what you're required to do by law?
2) shouldn't the FDIC deposit insurance limit be pegged to inflation? yeah, obvious, but. last raised in 2008 to $250k. seems like it'd be about $350k today.
2. Depositors that withdrew their money 100%.
3. Depositors that will fall under FDIC and made whole by this.
4. Depositors that will receive X% of deposits (likely under 100%)
5. Debt and equity with SVB
6. American taxpayer.
OK, I think every possible permutation of who owes who money has been explained in this thread.
I personally would like to see a legal mechanism where group 2 owes group 4 money. Not sure how that would work, but it would definitely give no one an incentive to run on a bank ever again if we could figure it out.
(https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35127063)
life comes at you fast
is a bailout that other banks pay for via a special fdic assessment not a bailout?
This is just uneducated people sharing a knee-jerk reaction.
AFAIK this isn’t a bail-in as there is no attempt to save the bank. As the bank is in receivership the depositors get a receivership certificate and by FDIC law depositors get paid first before lenders and equity. I think possibly before secured lenders but I’m not sure. In liquidation preference is everything. Given the assets, even at fire sale prices, depositors should get most and possibly all of their money back. That would mean any bail-out would be to help the banks other lenders. I don’t know for sure but I assume those would be other banks, so I guess it would be sold as an idea to limit contagion. I’m anti-bail-out. Depositors can borrow against receivership certificates to get some liquidity. Obviously they’d pay a time and risk premium for that but better than going insolvent. I don’t have cash in bank account above FDIC limits yet I still have multiple accounts in different countries. Basically applying backup rules to banking to avoid a single point of failure. If a bank freezes my funds for whatever reason I would need money to be able to pay a lawyer to get them unfrozen. I heard SVB would punish customers (with higher fees I guess) who banked with multiple banks so not only did SVB have a very high percentage of uninsured deposits the depositors they did tended not to spread the risk around.
Now bail-ins are a totally different matter. Deposits above insurance unsecured liabilities and depending on the jurisdiction can be anywhere in the preference line from in the front to near the back (still in-front of equity which will always get hosed). This is very different to most people’s perceptions as they believe the bank is holding their money in trust which would put them first in line. Effectively (afaik) uninsured deposit amounts are insuring the insured deposit amounts as their deposits contributed to pool of assets that get paid out in liquidation. One of the reasons for a bail in is continuity of operation, new equity is issued (the old ones are deleted) and instead of receivership certificates which holders can use to get loans on a case by case basis the equity can be traded making it easier and cheaper to free up liquidity. Since the new bank will be solvent the assets won’t need to sold at fire sale prices. But the other aspect is the mingling of uninsured depositors with other lenders really has the potential to drastically increase the size of the haircut depositors can expect. While many of bail-in legislations seem to have loop-holes allowing this (some countries state it more explicitly) it seems unfathomable that such a thing would be done as that would destroy the false trust that people have in the financial system. Unless of course all off-ramps from banks are closed and people are stuck choosing between a bad deal from one bank and a bad deal from another bank.
Government sees industry with a different lens to the markets.
"Taxpayer Subsidies Helped Tesla Motors, So Why Does Elon Musk Slam Them?" - https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/10/tesla-motors-fr...
EDIT -
From the WSJ (https://archive.ph/HZ29y)
"
A plan that soothes nerves about access to uninsured deposits—most of the bank’s deposits are sizable enough that they don’t carry Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. protection—could tamp down the crisis and limit any impact on the economy as the Federal Reserve focuses on combating inflation by raising interest rates.
But failing to swiftly clarify how SVB’s customers can access funds, make payroll and conduct business risks broader economic consequences and threatens to complicate the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.
“We want to make sure that the troubles that exist at one bank don’t create contagion to others that are sound,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview on Face the Nation on CBS Sunday. “We are concerned about depositors and are focused on trying to meet their needs.”
Ms. Yellen declined to provide details on what federal policymakers are considering.
"
In other words, it doesn't look like we know anything yet.
This is the statement from the Financial Times article -
“Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out . . . and the reforms that have been put in place means we are not going to do that again,” Yellen said. “But we are concerned about depositors, and we’re focused on trying to meet their needs.”
And from here - https://www.fastcompany.com/90864111/silicon-valley-bank-svb...
"
The FDIC ordered the closure of Silicon Valley Bank and immediately took position (sic - possession) of all deposits at the bank Friday. The bank had $209 billion in assets and $175.4 billion in deposits at the time of failure, the FDIC said in a statement. It was unclear how much of deposits was above the $250,000 insurance limit at the moment.
"
Unless SVB had over 700,000 customers, quite clearly there is a mismatch between insured and uninsured customers.
So by Yellen saying “But we are concerned about depositors, and we’re focused on trying to meet their needs.” and at the same time saying there won't be a bailout she's effectively saying nothing. In this case those things are synonymous.
Until there are hard numbers on possible contagion and the steps that the Federal government is going to take to prevent that we won't know anything for sure.
FYI - Here's the transcript of the interview with Janet Yellen on Face the Nation - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/janet-yellen-face-the-nation-tr...
MARGARET BRENNAN: For those depositors, about 85% of SVBs accounts were uninsured. And, as you were saying, a lot of different tech firms relied on them. Do you believe that depositors should be paid back in full? Will they?
SECRETARY YELLEN: Look, I'm not going to comment on the details of the situation at this point. I simply want to say that we're very aware of the problems that depositors will have, many of them are small businesses that employ people across the country. And of course, this is a significant concern, and working with regulators to try to address these concerns.
So that means (if the other numbers above are correct) that there should be approximately $150 billion in assets that are currently uninsured. The risk of contagion may be less than during the 2008 financial crisis if there is less counterparty risk (banks owing other banks assets and no one understanding who owns the underlying). There would be a problem to the extent that VC firms may go bust and this trickles up to hedge funds and larger institutions. That risk is hard to assess and asset holders have every incentive to claim that risk to be high.
".... Banks are intermediaries between depositors (who lend money to the bank) and borrowers (to whom the bank lends money)..."
Seems all it says is "there will be no bailout but there will be a bailout".
If people with over 250,000 in deposits are covered, the once again the the rich is allowed to avoid all risks for bad decisions.
I feel like putting your money in a bank should not be considered an obviously bad decision. The risk profile your bank takes on with your deposits is largely opaque to you, and it’s not feasible to expect every depositor to do due diligence on it. Even if you understood their portfolio you might not be able to understand the implications as market conditions change. It’s also not feasible to expect people to split up their deposit into multiple 250k accounts.
There is a sequence of screwups here by the government and then by SVB which led to this, and it makes zero sense to have that impact depositors who manage the critical innovation infrastructure of the US.
The backdrop that led to this includes the government printing way too much money, which induced a ridiculous bull run and coupled with supply chocks caused high inflation. The Fed failed to react quickly enough partly for political reasons, eventually leading to a jarring about-face with the sharpest interest rate increases in decades.
Meanwhile the bull run led to an increase in deposits to SVB, which SVB needed to put to work and bought an outsized low yield 10 year bond which plummeted in value once interest rates spiked. This was indeed a poor decision by SVB and along with the drop in new deposits from the interest rate-induced VC slowdown pretty much sealed their fate.
Once SVB share price dropped 50%, depositors acted rationally to pull their uninsured funds. It wouldn't have mattered whether VCs chimed in or not, the bank run would happen regardless in a matter of days (there were plenty of red flags that the price drop exposed widely).
If experts in finance/banking didn't see this coming, why would small business depositors be expected to? If diversifying across regional and "too big to fail" banks were such an obvious issue it would have been baked into every VC funding agreement, but it wasn't (but I'm sure it will be from hereon).
Which startups/VCs bank with SVB is basically an arbitrary choice (in fact the standard one), so what would be the point of punishing large swaths of the critical innovation industry that happened to do something considered as the industry standard? Making depositors whole is not a bailout, it's a backstop for the inevitable crack in the economy that the aggressive/clumsy Fed induced.
If this doesn't get resolved immediately, the US can pretty much say goodbye to any form of long term dominance, economic, military or otherwise.