First Republic is technically insolvent, similarly to SVB. The Bank Term Fund Program (BTFP), provides liquidity at the par value of underwater T-Bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities. This liquidity would allow First Republic to cover any immediate outflows of depositors. However, if there is a protracted run on First Republics deposits then it will be unable to make enough to pay back the borrowed funds from the BTFP and will go into default. Equity markets are a forward looking indicator, and its clear that First Republics balance sheet is under serious duress, and it's unclear how they return to profitability. The bottom line is that even with the BTFP and JPM liquidity offer, if there is a bank run at First Republic, they will go under.